INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 4
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $20,000
Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.58
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 Tuxca (a tactical type, M/L 15-1). Recent figures: 54 · 65 · 66. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #8 Tiny Tapper at 8-1. Use #7 My Chickadee in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Figures have slipped: 66, 65, 54 over its last three. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 66, with 63 next best.
Was running in maiden claiming $40,000; today's maiden claiming $20,000 is an easier level on paper. Declan Cannon takes over from Jane Elliott in the saddle.
Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going a mile. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 53 against a 65 par.
Cuts back from a mile to 5½ furlongs. Worked 4F in :49.40 on Sep 29, 3rd of 17 at the distance.
Class relief: maiden claiming $40,000 last time, maiden claiming $20,000 today. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
Switches from turf to dirt. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 40 against a 65 par.
Off 65 days since the last start. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 15, in :47.40.
Debut for this Goldencents filly, whose dam is Mysteriously. First-time starter from a barn that wins 12% of the time with them (250 tried).
Finished 10th in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at IND, beaten 10 lengths. A 52 is the high figure lately, short of the 65 par.
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 ECHO PARADISE (3-1) — our number has it ranked #7.
- #9 ECHO PARADISE — our #7 number, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 20.6%).
- #7 MY CHICKADEE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 18.3%).
- #3 SEALED DESTINY — our #6 number, about right at the windows (12.6% to their 13.7%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #6 TUXCA (15-1) — our fair 6.5% is above the morning line's 5.1%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
Likely leader: #7 My Chickadee; the shape helps #7 My Chickadee; and works against #1 Angels Sing, #2 Imonlysleeping, #3 Sealed Destiny.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a soft pace can let a forward type loose — protect with a saver on top. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#6 Tuxca (place saver: #8 Tiny Tapper)
#6 Tuxca rates the best; #8 Tiny Tapper the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#6 Tuxca · #8 Tiny Tapper
Two standouts with little between them — box #6 Tuxca and #8 Tiny Tapper both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#6 Tuxca · #8 Tiny Tapper · #7 My Chickadee
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#6 Tuxca / #8 Tiny Tapper · #7 My Chickadee · #4 Call Her Majesty · #5 Murasaki / #8 Tiny Tapper · #7 My Chickadee · #4 Call Her Majesty · #5 Murasaki / ALL or #8 Tiny Tapper · #7 My Chickadee · #4 Call Her Majesty · #5 Murasaki
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6)