INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 8
UPCOMINGState-Bred Maiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.81
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #11 Grandfather Sir (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 51 · 63 · 55. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Blues Rocker at 5-1. Use #2 Tricked You in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Tops the field on speed figures, a 63 against 58 for the next best. 2nd of 52 at 4F on Aug 19, in :47.60.
A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, a mile today. Gets a new rider, Marcelino Pedroza replacing R Prescott.
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 58 against a 70 par. Figures have slipped: 58, 56, 52 over its last three.
Beaten 11 lengths for 6th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at IND. A 42 is the high figure lately, short of the 70 par.
Last out was 10th, 16 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at IND. Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 92).
Raises its level, maiden claiming $20,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call.
Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Mitole and Essence Of Audre breeding. Debut for a trainer who is 10% with first-timers, over 40 starts.
Off 81 days since the last start. Best recent figure is 35, well under the 70 par for this level.
Joseph M Romero takes over from Alexander Crispin in the saddle. Worked 4F in :49.80 on Aug 14, 3rd of 6 at the distance.
Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Aug 25, in :47.80. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile.
At a glance
- Market favourite #11 GRANDFATHER SIR (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #11 GRANDFATHER SIR — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.4%, they've got 19.3%.
- #2 TRICKED YOU — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 16.9%).
- #7 SKIP N SCOOT — our #7 number, about right at the windows (15.2% to their 16.9%).
Value read
- #11 GRANDFATHER SIR — we make it 22.4%, the morning line implies 19.3%. We're 16.0 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
- Longshot value: #1 C V HADES (25-1) — our fair 3.0% is above the morning line's 2.6%; supported by: sire Dynamic Racer wins 18% at mile/dirt (n=67); lightly raced — breeding fits
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #2 Tricked You; pressure from #11 Grandfather Sir.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a balanced pace makes it a trip race — moderate spreads. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#11 Grandfather Sir
Top of the field by a clear 32-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#11 Grandfather Sir OVER #3 Blues Rocker · #2 Tricked You · #4 Uncle Tuff
Key #11 Grandfather Sir on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#11 Grandfather Sir / #3 Blues Rocker · #2 Tricked You · #4 Uncle Tuff / #3 Blues Rocker · #2 Tricked You · #4 Uncle Tuff · #1 C V Hades
#11 Grandfather Sir keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#11 Grandfather Sir / #3 Blues Rocker · #2 Tricked You · #4 Uncle Tuff · #1 C V Hades / #3 Blues Rocker · #2 Tricked You · #4 Uncle Tuff · #1 C V Hades / ALL or #3 Blues Rocker · #2 Tricked You · #4 Uncle Tuff · #1 C V Hades
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 10 CENT GRAND HIGH 5 (PENTAFECTA)