Pick sheet

Race 11:30 PM Clm 12500b

1 Mi · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Face the Future, is 22% to win (morning line implies 18%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #8 Face the Future ML 7-2 Fair 7-2 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -39 ↕ Up and down 36–80 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey M. Murrill · Trainer D. Simpson · KEE 7: 2-0-1 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1m dirt 79 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/8	IND	6f D	Alw n1x	7th/7 -17L	36	17-1	b L	Bmp;taken up st;vied3p
8/18	IND	6f D	Alw n1x	7th/8 -11L	67	14-1	b L	3path;faded stretch
5/25	IND	5½f D	sAlw40000n2x	Won/8	80	2.4-1	b L	Clear;lasted;mild drv

Case: Last out 7th/7 -17L in the Alw35360n1x at IND. Last Brisnet figures 36-67-80. Best at today's distance 79. 1-for-1 at the distance. 2-for-7 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. D. Simpson / M. Murrill.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Organized ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 66–75

Jockey R. Prescott · Trainer D. Ward · Dist 5: 1-1-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 75 · 31 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BTP	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n3l	Won/6	72	2.1-1	b L	2p;cued5/16;inch clear
9/6	BTP	1m D	Clm 15k n3l	3rd/4 -5L	66	1.8-1	b L	Lacked a rally
8/14	BTP	1m D	Alw s	2nd/5 -1L	75	6.5-1	b L	2w;broken equipment

Case: Last out won in the Clm7500n3l at BTP. Last Brisnet figures 72-66-75. Best at today's distance 75. 1-for-5 at the distance. D. Ward / R. Prescott.

Knock: Never raced at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #1 Wicked Suprise ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 Last out 6th/11 -1½L in the OC10000 at IND. Last Brisnet figures 78-68-66. Best at today's distance 82. C. Winebaugh / V. Lara. Knock: Never raced at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Jockey V. Lara · Trainer C. Winebaugh · 18 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	IND	1 1/16 T	OC 10k	6th/11 -1½L	78	52-1	L	Led2p;vied btw;faded
9/22	IND	1m T	OC 15k	7th/9 -2L	68	15-1	L	Dueled inside;faded1/8
8/31	IND	1 1/16 T	OC 10k	9th/10 -4L	66	7.9-1	L	Dueled;gave way1/4

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #8 · B #2, #5, #6 · C #3, #7

Angles: #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Lone speed on early pace

R1 Indiana Downs · Claiming $12,500

1:30 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $27,200 · 8 runners1:30 PM · 1m Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $27K · Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Wicked SupriseV. Lara · C. WinebaughLara · WinebaughA78 68 66▲▲+87-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +878 68 66A3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 78 68 66

Jockey Victor Lara 26% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 40 · Trainer Cheryl Winebaugh 26% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Lit Miss Hat Trick 15-1, R4: Unconnected 20-1, R6: Midnight Master 25-1, R8: Coach Knight 4-1

0/4 board here

Switches from turf to dirt. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and $12,500 claiming now.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 75d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	IND	1 1/16 T	OC 10k	6th/11 -1½L	78	52-1	L	Led2p;vied btw;faded
9/22	IND	1m T	OC 15k	7th/9 -2L	68	15-1	L	Dueled inside;faded1/8
8/31	IND	1 1/16 T	OC 10k	9th/10 -4L	66	7.9-1	L	Dueled;gave way1/4

2DurableM. Nicholls · M. TorresNicholls · TorresB76 70 66▲+6@trip 7615-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +6 · career best76 70 66@trip 76B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 70 66

Jockey Mia Nicholls 30% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Marcelino Torres 25% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at BTP. A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, $12,500 claiming today.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 40d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	BTP	1m D	Clm 5k n3l	Won/7	76	1.2-1	L	Svd gnd;bid1/4;up
9/6	BTP	1m D	Clm 5k n2l	Won/5 by 2½	70	0.6-1	L	Btw; ang in 1/4;rally
8/13	BTP	5f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/5 -4½L	66	1.4-1	L	Lag ins;rally;edge shw

3Ease My MindJ. Gutierrez · J. HaranGutierrez · HaranC59 72 69▼▼-14@trip 798-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1459 72 69@trip 79C

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 72 69

Jockey Jose Ramos Gutierrez 32% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer John Haran 30% career 11-for-62 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Star Review 12-1 · Trainer R7: Momentario 10-1

Last out was 6th, 15 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at IND. Moves up from optional claiming to $12,500 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 14d back

RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 15 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	IND	1m D	sOC15000	6th/7 -15L	59	5.7-1	b L	Sqzd7/8;2p;faded3/8
8/27	IND	1m D	sOC15000	Won/7	72	2.3-1	b L	Led rail;bid1/8;drvg
7/28	IND	1m D	Clm 12k n2l	4th/9 -5½L	69	1.2-1	b L	4p;rail3/8;4p late;bid

4OrganizedR. Prescott · D. WardPrescott · WardA72 66 75►≡@trip 753-1Fair 9-219%► Steady72 66 75 ≡@trip 75A2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 66–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 66 75

Jockey R Prescott 26% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Dean Ward 36% career

Also today · Jockey R3: School Spirit 10-1, R4: Old Trace 8-1, R7: Panache 15-1, R8: King Ice 8-1

WON LAST

Raises its level, $7,500 claiming last time and $12,500 claiming now. Won last out in a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at BTP.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BTP	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n3l	Won/6	72	2.1-1	b L	2p;cued5/16;inch clear
9/6	BTP	1m D	Clm 15k n3l	3rd/4 -5L	66	1.8-1	b L	Lacked a rally
8/14	BTP	1m D	Alw s	2nd/5 -1L	75	6.5-1	b L	2w;broken equipment

5RedfieldM. Fernandez · J. WatkinsFernandez · WatkinsB77 68 78►@trip 736-1Fair 6-114%► Steady77 68 78@trip 73B

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 68 78

Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 3-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer James M Watkins 35% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Kathi's Girl 12-1 · Trainer R7: Panache 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 90. Fastest 4F work of its morning on May 12 (:47.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.40 on May 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	FPK	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k	3rd/8 -6L	77	1.7-1	b L	Lost iron 3/8;shift 4w
9/8	FPK	1 1/16 D	OC 20k b	8th/8 -4½L	68	2.9-1	b L	Awkward start; trailed
7/18	FPK	1 1/16 D	Clm 25k	4th/7 -½L	78	1.4-1	b L	Awk brk;tight 7/8;4-5w

6Navy SoulA. Achard · B. PittmanAchard · PittmanB65 72 66▼-5≡@trip 739-2Fair 7-112%▼ Down -565 72 66 ≡@trip 73B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 65–72 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 72 66

Jockey Alex Achard 30% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Bonnie Pittman 19% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Abra Abra 8-1, R7: Shameless Bride 7-2

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Has run 84 against a 79 par for the class. Off 55 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/8	IND	1 1/16 D	Clm 20k b	7th/8 -3½L	65	41-1	b L	Stalkd 3p;gave way str
10/23	KEE	1 1/16 D	Clm 32k	9th/10 -7½L	72	51-1	b L	Lean out st;4-5p;tired
9/19	IND	1 1/16 T	OC 20k	9th/9 -16L	66	74-1	b L	Awk;unrushed;no bid

7Vaccinator▼S. Bermudez · M. HayesBermudez · HayesC61 59 65►≡@trip 6820-1Fair 30-13%► Steady61 59 65 ≡@trip 68C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 59–65 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 59 65

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Samuel E Bermudez 35% career 3-for-28 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Michael S Hayes 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Apple Biscuit 20-1

0 for 6 at today's distance. Was 9th of 9 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 205d back)

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 15 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	KEE	1 1/16 D	Clm 20k b	6th/9 -15L	61	55-1	b L	Inside; outrun
10/1	IND	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	9th/9 -18L	59	115-1	b L	No factor
9/8	IND	1 1/16 D	Clm 20k b	6th/8 -7½L	65	43-1	L	Improved position late

8Face the Future▲M. Murrill · D. SimpsonMurrill · SimpsonA36 67 80▼▼-39↕@trip 797-2Fair 7-222%▼▼ Big drop -3936 67 80 ↕@trip 79A▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -39 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–80 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 36 67 80

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career 8-for-47 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Daniel Simpson 29% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Spirited Justice 2-1, R4: Rum Rock 7-2, R7: Tiz In Sight 12-1, R8: Fervent Prayer 6-1

Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Trending the wrong way on speed, 80 to 67 to 36.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmp; taken up st; vied3p), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d back

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/8	IND	6f D	Alw n1x	7th/7 -17L	36	17-1	b L	Bmp;taken up st;vied3p
8/18	IND	6f D	Alw n1x	7th/8 -11L	67	14-1	b L	3path;faded stretch
5/25	IND	5½f D	sAlw40000n2x	Won/8	80	2.4-1	b L	Clear;lasted;mild drv

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $12,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$27,200

Post

1:30 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#8 · 22%

Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.81

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #8 Face The Future (early speed, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 36 · 67 · 80. Backup is #4 Organized at 3-1. Use #1 Wicked Suprise in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 ORGANIZED (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#4 ORGANIZED — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 20.2%).
#8 FACE THE FUTURE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 17.9%).
#1 WICKED SUPRISE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 17.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Face The Future; pressure from #3 Ease My Mind, #5 Redfield; the shape helps #2 Durable, #6 Navy Soul, #7 Vaccinator; and works against #1 Wicked Suprise, #3 Ease My Mind, #5 Redfield.

Lead

8Face The Future863Ease My Mind845Redfield801Wicked Suprise76

Press

4Organized83

Stalk

none

6Navy Soul812Durable777Vaccinator71

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Face The Future

Ease My Mind

Organized

Redfield

Wicked Suprise

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Navy Soul

Durable

Vaccinator

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