Pick sheet

Race 53:30 PM Md 15000

8.3F · Dirt · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Burn Brightly, is 30% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #10.

Top pick #4 Burn Brightly ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 68 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey A. Ulloa · Trainer R. Gorham · KEE 5: 0-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 17 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	5th/10 -7L	51	22-1	b L	Stalked2p;bid1/4;falt
7/29	IND	1 1/16 T	fsMdSpWt	8th/9 -11L	45	18-1	b L	Bmpd st;gave way3/16
7/6	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	5th/11 -2½L	59	9.3-1	b L	Sted;stlk rail;no bid

Case: Last out 5th/10 -7L in the fsMdSpWt at IND. Last Brisnet figures 51-45-59. Best at today's distance 17. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. R. Gorham / A. Ulloa.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Contender #8 Succy's Song ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best ▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 68

Jockey S. Sanjur · Trainer A. Duran · KEE 9: 0-1-1 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 47 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -9½L	52	32-1	b L	2path;no late bid
9/8	IND	6f D	fsMd15000	3rd/7 -4L	44	6.9-1	b L	Awk;4p;bid late
7/4	IND	5½f D	fsMd15000	6th/11 -13L	39	12-1	b L	3p;improved late

Case: Last out 4th/10 -9½L in the fsMdSpWt at IND. Last Brisnet figures 52-44-39. Best at today's distance 47. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-9 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. A. Duran / S. Sanjur.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #10 This Little Light ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 50–53 ▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 68 Last out 4th/8 -5L in the fsMdSpWt at IND. Last Brisnet figures 51-50-53. Best at today's distance 50. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. R. Matthews / J. Bealmear. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Bealmear · Trainer R. Matthews · KEE 5: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 50 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	IND	6f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/8 -5L	51	13-1	b L	5path;bid1/4;faded str
9/15	IND	1 1/16 D	fsMdSpWt	4th/8 -6½L	50	14-1	b L	Jost st;awk;boreout7/8
8/13	IND	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	5th/10 -3½L	53	53-1	b L	Pressed3p;gave way1/8

Longshot #1 Abra Abra ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4 ▼▼ Big drop -11 ★ Best at 1 1/16 dirt: 51 ▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 68 ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey A. Achard · Trainer T. Richardville · KEE 22: 0-2-8 · Dist 10: 0-1-6 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 51 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	IND	1 1/16 D	fsMdSpWt	6th/8 -14L	41	18-1	L	Inside trip
9/15	IND	1 1/16 D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/8 -8½L	51	16-1	L	Angld4p1/4;bid3/16
7/29	IND	1 1/16 T	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -11L	50	30-1	L	Bid4p3/8;improved late

Case: Last out 6th/8 -14L in the fsMdSpWt at IND. Last Brisnet figures 41-51-50. Best at today's distance 51. 0-for-10 at the distance. 0-for-22 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. T. Richardville / A. Achard.

Knock: 0-for-10 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #8, #10 · B #1, #7, #9 · C #2, #3, #5, #6

Angles: #1 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 68 · #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #2 Best fig 32 is 5+ under today's par 68 · #3 Best fig 29 is 5+ under today's par 68 · #4 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 68 · #4 Lone speed on early pace · #5 Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 68 · #6 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 68 · #7 Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 68 · #8 Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 68 · #9 Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 68 · #10 Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 68

R5 Indiana Downs · Maiden Claiming $15,000

3:30 PM ET · 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt · $18,500 · 10 runners3:30 PM · 8.3f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $18K · Maiden Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 Abra Abra (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 51 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Abra Abra▼▼★LSA. Achard · T. RichardvilleAchard · RichardvilleB41 51 50▼▼-11@trip 518-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -1141 51 50@trip 51B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 68▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 51LS

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 51 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 41 51 50

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 68▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 51LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Alex Achard 30% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Tianna Richardville 23% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Navy Soul 9-2, R7: Shameless Bride 7-2

Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $15,000 today. Beaten 14 lengths for 6th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at IND.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	IND	1 1/16 D	fsMdSpWt	6th/8 -14L	41	18-1	L	Inside trip
9/15	IND	1 1/16 D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/8 -8½L	51	16-1	L	Angld4p1/4;bid3/16
7/29	IND	1 1/16 T	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -11L	50	30-1	L	Bid4p3/8;improved late

2Apple Biscuit▼S. Bermudez · J. HoldenBermudez · HoldenC32 1620-1Fair 50-12%—32 16C▼ Best fig 32 is 5+ under today's par 68
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 32 16
▼ Best fig 32 is 5+ under today's par 68
Jockey Samuel E Bermudez 35% career 3-for-28 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jay J Holden 19% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Vaccinator 20-1 · Trainer this race: Cherry Pink 15-1, this race: What You Wished 20-1
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Best recent figure is 32, well under the 68 par for this level.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 20d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/20 IND 1m T fsMdSpWt 9th/10 -22L 32 61-1 L Evenly3path
9/29 IND 1m T fsMdSpWt 10th/11 -31L 16 47-1 L Off awk;through early

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	9th/10 -22L	32	61-1	L	Evenly3path
9/29	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	10th/11 -31L	16	47-1	L	Off awk;through early

3Mistyway▼A. Crispin · S. MartinCrispin · MartinC-7 29 15▼▼-2930-1Fair 99-11%▼▼ Big drop -29-7 29 15C▼ Best fig 29 is 5+ under today's par 68

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -29 · Last 3 figs -7 29 15

▼ Best fig 29 is 5+ under today's par 68

Jockey Alexander Crispin 26% career 4-for-41 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Shawna Martin 28% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Big Tom 12-1

60D LAYOFF0/3 board here

Freshened 97 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 30d back)

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/28	IND	6f D	fsMd15000	11th/11 -23L	-7	138-1	b L	Pressed5p;gave way9/16
7/4	IND	5½f D	fsMd15000	10th/11 -15L	29	80-1	b L	Bumped start
4/7	IND	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	10th/11 -20L	15	81-1	b L	Squeezed back start

4Burn Brightly▼▲A. Ulloa · R. GorhamUlloa · GorhamA51 45 59►@trip 172-1Fair 5-230%► Steady51 45 59@trip 17A▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 68▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 17 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 45 59

▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 68▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Andres P Ulloa 24% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Robert M Gorham 32% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%)

Tops the field on speed figures, a 59 against 55 for the next best. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $15,000 is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Sep 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	5th/10 -7L	51	22-1	b L	Stalked2p;bid1/4;falt
7/29	IND	1 1/16 T	fsMdSpWt	8th/9 -11L	45	18-1	b L	Bmpd st;gave way3/16
7/6	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	5th/11 -2½L	59	9.3-1	b L	Sted;stlk rail;no bid

5Cherry Pink▼A. Burgos · J. HoldenBurgos · HoldenC2 1415-1Fair 30-13%—2 14C▼ Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 68
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 2 14
▼ Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 68
Jockey Alberto Burgos 32% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jay J Holden 19% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: El Oso 12-1, R7: Grimes Glen 20-1, R8: Monumentaljustice 8-1 · Trainer this race: Apple Biscuit 20-1, this race: What You Wished 20-1
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Finished 11th in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at IND, beaten 46 lengths.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through early), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/29 IND 1m T fsMdSpWt 11th/11 -46L 2 60-1 b L Through early
9/17 IND 5½f D fsMdSpWt 7th/8 -20L 14 32-1 b L Inside trip

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	11th/11 -46L	2	60-1	b L	Through early
9/17	IND	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/8 -20L	14	32-1	b L	Inside trip

6What You Wished▼H. Leahey · J. HoldenLeahey · HoldenC40 49 47▼▼-1020-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1040 49 47C▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 68

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 40 49 47

▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 68

Jockey Hannah Leahey 21% career 3-for-31 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jay J Holden 19% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer this race: Apple Biscuit 20-1, this race: Cherry Pink 15-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

0 for 5 at today's distance. Maiden through 28 starts.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 160d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -19L	40	44-1	L	Bore in start;trailed
9/21	IND	1 1/16 D	sMdSpWt	3rd/5 -7½L	49	30-1	L	Frac;bid1/2;faded str
8/24	IND	1m T	sMdSpWt	5th/6 -6L	47	18-1	L	4path;faded stretch

7Kathi's Girl▼M. Fernandez · M. SalasFernandez · SalasB30 42 54▼▼-13↕12-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -1330 42 54 ↕B▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 68
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 30–54 · Last 3 figs 30 42 54
▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 68
Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 3-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Marcelino Salas 22% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Redfield 6-1 · Trainer R6: Southern Soul 25-1
Figures have slipped: 54, 42, 30 over its last three. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled start. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 79d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/14 IND 6f D fsMdSpWt 8th/8 -13L 30 24-1 b L Stumbled start
9/17 IND 5½f D fsMdSpWt 6th/8 -8½L 42 8.8-1 b L Awk;inside trip
8/27 IND 6f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/7 -2½L 54 19-1 b L Stalked4p;no bid

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	IND	6f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/8 -13L	30	24-1	b L	Stumbled start
9/17	IND	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/8 -8½L	42	8.8-1	b L	Awk;inside trip
8/27	IND	6f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/7 -2½L	54	19-1	b L	Stalked4p;no bid

8Succy's Song▼S. Sanjur · A. DuranSanjur · DuranA52 44 39▲▲+14@trip 472-1Fair 3-124%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best52 44 39@trip 47A▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 682

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 47 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 44 39

▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 68

Jockey Santo Sanjur 27% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Antonio Duran 25% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Go Chicago 7-2

Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $15,000. Has moved up each time out, 39 to 44 to 52.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 20d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -9½L	52	32-1	b L	2path;no late bid
9/8	IND	6f D	fsMd15000	3rd/7 -4L	44	6.9-1	b L	Awk;4p;bid late
7/4	IND	5½f D	fsMd15000	6th/11 -13L	39	12-1	b L	3p;improved late

9Martine▼B. Martinez · J. SchultzMartinez · SchultzB50 44 51►15-1Fair 20-15%► Steady50 44 51B▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 68
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 50 44 51
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 68
Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer John Schultz 31% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Blakely's Boy 10-1
0/5 board here
6th last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 10. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 34 days ago
RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/20 IND 1m T fsMdSpWt 6th/10 -11L 50 30-1 L Evenly 3path
9/8 IND 6f D fsMd15000 5th/7 -5L 44 3.1-1 L Rail;bid1/4;sted1/8
8/6 BTP 1m T MSW 9th/10 -6¼L 51 78-1 L Bumped st; done early

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	IND	1m T	fsMdSpWt	6th/10 -11L	50	30-1	L	Evenly 3path
9/8	IND	6f D	fsMd15000	5th/7 -5L	44	3.1-1	L	Rail;bid1/4;sted1/8
8/6	BTP	1m T	MSW	9th/10 -6¼L	51	78-1	L	Bumped st; done early

10This Little Light▼J. Bealmear · R. MatthewsBealmear · MatthewsA51 50 53►≡@trip 504-1Fair 6-115%► Steady51 50 53 ≡@trip 50A▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 683

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 50–53 · Best fig at today's trip 50 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 50 53

▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 68

Jockey Joseph C Bealmear 26% career 4-for-48 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Randy Matthews 26% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Signdsealddeliverd 5-1, R7: Sarissa 12-1

0/5 board here

Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. A 53 is the high figure lately, short of the 68 par.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 27d ago)

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	IND	6f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/8 -5L	51	13-1	b L	5path;bid1/4;faded str
9/15	IND	1 1/16 D	fsMdSpWt	4th/8 -6½L	50	14-1	b L	Jost st;awk;boreout7/8
8/13	IND	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	5th/10 -3½L	53	53-1	b L	Pressed3p;gave way1/8

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #10.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $15,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$18,500

Post

3:30 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#4 · 30%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 97.98

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Burn Brightly (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 51 · 45 · 59. Backup is #8 Succy's Song at 2-1. Use #10 This Little Light in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 BURN BRIGHTLY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 BURN BRIGHTLY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.8% to their 25.5%).
#8 SUCCY'S SONG — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.9% to their 25.5%).
#10 THIS LITTLE LIGHT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.9% to their 15.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #4 Burn Brightly; pressure from #10 This Little Light.

Lead

4Burn Brightly8110This Little Light75

Press

none

Stalk

7Kathi's Girl69

8Succy's Song781Abra Abra776What You Wished56

No style yet

3Mistyway812Apple Biscuit709Martine625Cherry Pink44

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Burn Brightly

This Little Light

Kathi's Girl

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Abra Abra

What You Wished

Succy's Song

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