Pick sheet

Race 22:00 PM Alw 46240n1xEarly Pick 4 starts

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Spirited Justice, is 43% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #5 Spirited Justice ML 2-1 Fair 7-5 Model #1 ▲ Up +6 ▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86 ▲ Rider upgrade (23% vs 15%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey M. Murrill · Trainer T. Medina · KEE 11: 5-3-1 · Dist 5: 2-2-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 78 · 9 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	IND	1 1/16 D	fsLdyFogHnH150k	3rd/10 -2L	70	3.5-1	b L	Stalk3p;bid1/4;falterd
9/30	IND	1 1/16 D	frITOBAFilyH125k	Won/10	73	5.0-1	b L	Bob;bid3/8;duel;drvg
9/11	IND	1 1/16 D	fsFrstLdyHB150k	5th/9 -4½L	63	3.5-1	b L	Stalk btw;no late bid

Case: Last out 3rd in the fsLdyFogHnH150k at IND. Last Brisnet figures 70-73-63. Best at today's distance 78. 2-for-5 at the distance. 5-for-11 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. T. Medina / M. Murrill.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #1 Don't Miss Out ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey M. Pedroza · Trainer G. Garcia · KEE 21: 4-7-3 · Dist 12: 1-3-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 84 · 9 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	IND	6f D	fsKHammndH55k	7th/9 -2L	73	44-1	b L	Awk;pressed;gave way
9/17	IND	5f T	Alw n1x	8th/9 -7½L	66	11-1	b L	Saved ground
8/4	IND	6f D	Alw n1x	2nd/6	84	6.4-1	b L	Dueled;outfinished

Case: Last out 7th/9 -2L in the fsKHammndH55k at IND. Last Brisnet figures 73-66-84. Best at today's distance 84. 1-for-12 at the distance. 4-for-21 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. G. Garcia / M. Pedroza.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #2 What's Up Dog ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best ▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86 ▲ Lone speed on early pace Last out won in the fClm20000n2x at IND. Last Brisnet figures 80-64-65. Best at today's distance 80. 2-for-8 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. C. Contreras / E. Esquivel. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey E. Esquivel · Trainer C. Contreras · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 8: 2-2-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 80 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/8	IND	6f D	Clm 20k n2x	Won/8	80	1.8-1	b L	4p;bid3/8;kept to task
8/15	ELP	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	8th/11 -1L	64	9.5-1	b L	Ins pair;gave way upr
7/11	IND	6f D	Alw n1x	8th/9 -8¼L	65	23-1	b L	Press early 5p;faded

★ Distance horse: #7 Fancy Fascinator (12-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 86 from 4 tries, record at the distance 11: 3-2-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #7 · B #2, #4, #5 · C #6

Angles: #2 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #2 Lone speed on early pace · #4 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #5 Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #5 Rider upgrade (23% vs 15%) cutting back to a sprint · #6 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R2 Indiana Downs · Allowance · $46,240 purse

2:00 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $46,240 · 7 runners2:00 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $46K · Allowance · $46,240 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #7 Fancy Fascinator (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 86 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Don't Miss OutM. Pedroza · G. GarciaPedroza · GarciaA73 66 84►@trip 843-1Fair 9-219%► Steady73 66 84@trip 84A2
Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 84 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 66 84
Jockey Marcelino Pedroza 7-for-60 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 14-for-84 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Trainer this race: Patty Van Twinkle 15-1, R8: Little Jake 9-2, R8: Coach Knight 4-1
6/11 board here
Tops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 82 for the next best. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 67 days ago
RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 IND 6f D fsKHammndH55k 7th/9 -2L 73 44-1 b L Awk;pressed;gave way
9/17 IND 5f T Alw n1x 8th/9 -7½L 66 11-1 b L Saved ground
8/4 IND 6f D Alw n1x 2nd/6 84 6.4-1 b L Dueled;outfinished

2What's Up Dog▼▲E. Esquivel · C. ContrerasEsquivel · ContrerasB80 64 65▲▲+15@trip 807-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best80 64 65@trip 80B▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 64 65

▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 40 · Trainer Cipriano Contreras 36% career ★ 7-for-21 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 43 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: She's Honed In 5-2, R6: Fuoco 5-1, R8: Mansfield Tiger 6-1 · Trainer R3: School Spirit 10-1, R3: She's Honed In 5-2

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Winner of an 8-horse $20,000 claiming race at IND last time. A step up in company: $20,000 claiming before, allowance today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 12d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/8	IND	6f D	Clm 20k n2x	Won/8	80	1.8-1	b L	4p;bid3/8;kept to task
8/15	ELP	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	8th/11 -1L	64	9.5-1	b L	Ins pair;gave way upr
7/11	IND	6f D	Alw n1x	8th/9 -8¼L	65	23-1	b L	Press early 5p;faded

3Miss MacyA. Mendoza · S. CunninghamMendoza · CunninghamA70 72 82▼▼-8@trip 829-2Fair 10-110%▼▼ Big drop -870 72 82@trip 82A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 72 82

Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career 13-for-78 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer S Jade Cunningham 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Stephens Dream 8-1, R6: Melody Man 2-1, R7: Momentario 10-1, R8: Little Jake 9-2

New trainer: John Alexander Ortiz had it last time, S Jade Cunningham now. Figures have slipped: 82, 72, 70 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 11d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	IND	6f D	OC 50k b	6th/7 -13L	70	7.4-1	b L	No factor
4/30	OP	1m D	fsNtrStBrdrB150k	7th/9 -7L	72	14-1	b	Stalk 4-3p; weaken str
3/15	OP	6f D	fsAlw125000n2l	Won/7 by 2	82	4.3-1	b L	2nd flight 3w; in time

4Patty Van Twinkle▼Y. Ortiz Jr. · G. GarciaOrtiz Jr. · GarciaB46 77 79▼▼-31↕@trip 7715-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -3146 77 79 ↕@trip 77B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -31 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–79 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 46 77 79
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Yomar Jr Ortiz 37% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 14-for-84 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hot
Also today · Trainer this race: Don't Miss Out 3-1, R8: Little Jake 9-2, R8: Coach Knight 4-1
CLASS DROP4/6 board here
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance now.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 3; 1 work in 30d
RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 IND 7½f T OC 10k 8th/8 -11L 46 4.7-1 b L Gave way3/8
9/9 IND 6f D OC 20k 3rd/7 -2L 77 2.2-1 b L Stalk2p;no late bid
8/4 IND 5½f D OC 10k Won/8 79 1.0-1 b L 3p;bid1/4;duel;bid1/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	IND	7½f T	OC 10k	8th/8 -11L	46	4.7-1	b L	Gave way3/8
9/9	IND	6f D	OC 20k	3rd/7 -2L	77	2.2-1	b L	Stalk2p;no late bid
8/4	IND	5½f D	OC 10k	Won/8	79	1.0-1	b L	3p;bid1/4;duel;bid1/16

5Spirited Justice▼▲M. Murrill · T. MedinaMurrill · MedinaB70 73 63▲+6@trip 782-1Fair 7-543%▲ Up +670 73 63@trip 78B▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Rider upgrade (23% vs 15%) cutting back to a sprint1

Card model 43% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 73 63

▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Rider upgrade (23% vs 15%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career 8-for-47 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Tomas Medina 32% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Face The Future 7-2, R4: Rum Rock 7-2, R7: Tiz In Sight 12-1, R8: Fervent Prayer 6-1 · Trainer R8: Monumentaljustice 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK8/11 board here

Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs. Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Stalk3p; bid1/4; falterd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 95d back)

RECORD 5 wins, 8 on the board from 11 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	IND	1 1/16 D	fsLdyFogHnH150k	3rd/10 -2L	70	3.5-1	b L	Stalk3p;bid1/4;falterd
9/30	IND	1 1/16 D	frITOBAFilyH125k	Won/10	73	5.0-1	b L	Bob;bid3/8;duel;drvg
9/11	IND	1 1/16 D	fsFrstLdyHB150k	5th/9 -4½L	63	3.5-1	b L	Stalk btw;no late bid

6Lit Miss Hat Trick▼V. Lara · H. LynchLara · LynchC63 64 80▼▼-11@trip 8015-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1163 64 80@trip 80C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 64 80

▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Victor Lara 26% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 40 · Trainer Harry E Lynch 36% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Wicked Suprise 7-2, R4: Unconnected 20-1, R6: Midnight Master 25-1, R8: Coach Knight 4-1 · Trainer R4: Unconnected 20-1

Moves up from optional claiming to allowance. Trending the wrong way on speed, 80 to 64 to 63.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 158d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	FPK	5½f D	OC 20k b	5th/8 -5¾L	63	35-1	b L	Inside; improved postn
9/26	FPK	6f D	OC 20k b	7th/7 -12L	64	3.8-1	b L	3;4-w; tired
9/12	FPK	6f D	OC 30k n3x	3rd/6 -2L	80	15-1	b L	Duel insd/2p;came out

7Fancy Fascinator▼★Y. Correa · E. Moger Jr.Correa · Moger Jr.A74 77 65►@trip 8612-1Fair 20-14%► Steady74 77 65@trip 86A▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 86

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 77 65

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 86

Jockey Yarmarie L Correa 30% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ed Jr Moger 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Legit Chick 5-1, R6: Zun Reyder 7-2, R7: Elle's Dancer 15-1

Switches from turf to dirt. Was 8th of 8 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 9d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	IND	5f T	Alw n1x	6th/8 -6¼L	74	6.6-1	L	Rail;bid late 3path
9/3	BTP	5f T	OC 16k n1x	Won/8 by hd	77	2.0-1	L	Bid btwn foes 1/8;drvg
7/28	IND	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	6th/6 -7½L	65	3.3-1	L	Sqzd st;inside;faded

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Allowance · $46,240 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$46,240

Post

2:00 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 43%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.59

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Spirited Justice (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 70 · 73 · 63. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Don't Miss Out at 3-1. Use #2 What's Up Dog in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 SPIRITED JUSTICE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#5 SPIRITED JUSTICE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.5% to their 28.0%).
#1 DON'T MISS OUT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.6% to their 21.0%).
#2 WHAT'S UP DOG — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.0% to their 18.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Don't Miss Out; pressure from #2 What's Up Dog, #4 Patty Van Twinkle; the shape helps #2 What's Up Dog, #3 Miss Macy, #4 Patty Van Twinkle; and works against #1 Don't Miss Out.

Lead

1Don't Miss Out98

Press

2What's Up Dog934Patty Van Twinkle907Fancy Fascinator836Lit Miss Hat Trick795Spirited Justice77

Stalk

3Miss Macy86

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Don't Miss Out

What's Up Dog

Patty Van Twinkle

Miss Macy

Fancy Fascinator

Lit Miss Hat Trick

Spirited Justice

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Spirited Justice

Fancy Fascinator

What's Up Dog

Patty Van Twinkle

Don't Miss Out

Miss Macy

Lit Miss Hat Trick

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Bet types

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