Pick sheet

Race 64:00 PM Md 12500Late Pick 4 starts

1 Mi · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Melody Man, is 31% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #9.

Top pick #3 Melody Man ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady ★ Best at 1m turf: 79 ↕ Up and down 49–80

Jockey A. Mendoza · Trainer J. Sweezey · Dist 4: 0-1-1 · best fig at 1m turf 79 · 56 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	KD	1m T	MSW	9th/12 -6¼L	66	32-1	b L	Crowded st;4w;no bid
8/23	SAR	1m D	MCL 55k	5th/6 -10L	49	4.4-1	b L	Ins-2p;falter;eased
5/3	GP	5f D	MSW	4th/6 -2½L	68	1.5-1	b L	Steady3/8 ins;no kick

Case: Last out 9th/12 -6¼L in the MdSpWt at KD. Last Brisnet figures 66-49-68. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-4 at the distance. J. Sweezey / A. Mendoza.

Knock: Never raced at Horseshoe Indianapolis. 0-for-4 at the distance.

Contender #2 Gentleman Jim ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -16 ↕ Up and down 54–76

Jockey J. Graham · Trainer D. Heath · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 3: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1m turf 76 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	IND	1 1/16 D	MCL 30k	4th/5 -6½L	54	2.1-1	b L	Bmp;4path;gave way3/16
9/2	IND	1m T	MCL 30k	4th/12 -6½L	72	4.0-1	b L	2path;belated bid
7/26	ELP	1m T	MCL 30k	5th/10 -3¾L	76	12-1	b L	6p upper; belatedly

Case: Last out 4th/5 -6½L in the Md30000 at IND. Last Brisnet figures 54-72-76. Best at today's distance 76. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. D. Heath / J. Graham.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance.

Use #9 Zun Reyder ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 69–72 Last out 2nd in the Md12500c at IND. Last Brisnet figures 72-69-71. Best at today's distance 69. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. C. Brownfield / Y. Correa. Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey Y. Correa · Trainer C. Brownfield · KEE 4: 0-1-0 · Dist 3: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1m turf 69 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	IND	1 1/16 T	MCL 12kc	2nd/12 by hd	72	3.7-1	L	Dueled;couldn't last
9/2	IND	1m T	MCL 30k	7th/12 -2½L	69	7.0-1	L	Stalked rail;faded lat
8/11	IND	1 1/16 D	MCL 20k	3rd/10	71	4.1-1	L	Lugged out3/16;yielded

Narrowing the field: A #3, #6, #9 · B #1, #2, #8 · C #4, #5, #7

Angles: #1 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #4 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #5 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #7 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #8 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (49 vs 60)

R6 Indiana Downs · Maiden Claiming $12,500

4:00 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $24,480 · 9 runners4:00 PM · 1m Turf · 9 runners

Upcoming $24K · Maiden Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Big Tom▼A. Crispin · S. DonjuanCrispin · DonjuanB60 59 64►≡@trip 6412-1Fair 20-15%► Steady60 59 64 ≡@trip 64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 59–64 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 59 64

▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Alexander Crispin 26% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Sergio Donjuan 24% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Mistyway 30-1

A step up in company: maiden claiming $7,500 before, maiden claiming $12,500 today. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 20d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BTP	1 1/16 D	MCL 7k	5th/6 -6½L	60	5.3-1	b L	5-w upper;no response
9/17	BTP	1 1/16 T	MCL 15k	3rd/6 -2½L	59	33-1	b L	Mid-pk;bxd2trn;gain3rd
9/4	BTP	1m T	MCL 15k	7th/9 -6¾L	64	18-1	b L	Ins; swung5w; no more

2Gentleman JimJ. Graham · D. HeathGraham · HeathB54 72 76▼▼-16↕@trip 763-1Fair 7-222%▼▼ Big drop -1654 72 76 ↕@trip 76B2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 72 76

Jockey J Graham 27% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Destin G Heath 20% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Trainer R4: Al Amjaad 2-1

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Figures have slipped: 76, 72, 54 over its last three.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	IND	1 1/16 D	MCL 30k	4th/5 -6½L	54	2.1-1	b L	Bmp;4path;gave way3/16
9/2	IND	1m T	MCL 30k	4th/12 -6½L	72	4.0-1	b L	2path;belated bid
7/26	ELP	1m T	MCL 30k	5th/10 -3¾L	76	12-1	b L	6p upper; belatedly

3Melody Man★A. Mendoza · J. SweezeyMendoza · SweezeyA66 49 68►↕@trip 792-1Fair 2-131%► Steady66 49 68 ↕@trip 79A★ Best at the trip 791
Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–80 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 49 68
★ Best at the trip 79
Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career 3-for-36 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer J Kent Sweezey 29% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Macy 9-2, R3: Stephens Dream 8-1, R7: Momentario 10-1, R8: Little Jake 9-2
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 76 for the next best. A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $12,500, and worth asking why.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 KD 1m T MSW 9th/12 -6¼L 66 32-1 b L Crowded st;4w;no bid
8/23 SAR 1m D MCL 55k 5th/6 -10L 49 4.4-1 b L Ins-2p;falter;eased
5/3 GP 5f D MSW 4th/6 -2½L 68 1.5-1 b L Steady3/8 ins;no kick

4Southern Soul▼K. Jimenez · M. SalasJimenez · SalasC62 53 54▲▲+8@trip 6225-1Fair 99-11%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best62 53 54@trip 62C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 62 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 53 54

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Kevin J Jimenez 34% career · Trainer Marcelino Salas 22% career

Also today · Trainer R5: Kathi's Girl 12-1

CLASS DROP

3rd last time, 8 lengths back, in a field of 6. Still looking for the first win after 15 starts.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 10d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	BTP	1m D	MCL 5k	3rd/6 -8L	62	9.7-1	L	4wd bid 1/4; ran on
9/19	BTP	1m T	MCL 7k	6th/9 -7½L	53	51-1	L	Ins-2w;by tired ones
9/6	BTP	1 1/16 T	MCL 7k	3rd/7 by nk	54	6.0-1	L	Awkward start; bid

5Midnight Master▼V. Lara · F. BahenaLara · BahenaC54 58 52▼-425-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -454 58 52C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 54 58 52

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Victor Lara 26% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Fernando Bahena 29% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Wicked Suprise 7-2, R2: Lit Miss Hat Trick 15-1, R4: Unconnected 20-1, R8: Coach Knight 4-1

A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 9d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	FPK	6f D	MCL 15k	8th/8 -11L	54	41-1	L	No speed; no rally
9/19	FPK	6f D	MCL 15k	4th/7 -9½L	58	4.8-1	L	Off rail 5/16;fan 5wd
8/22	FPK	1 1/16 D	sMdSpWt	7th/10 -13L	52	11-1	L	Alter 5/8;swung 9wide

6FuocoE. Esquivel · T. FaroneEsquivel · FaroneA67 61 68▲▲+13↕5-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +1367 61 68 ↕A
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–68 · Last 3 figs 67 61 68
Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career 2-for-13 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Thomas Jude Farone 14% career
Also today · Jockey R2: What's Up Dog 7-2, R3: She's Honed In 5-2, R8: Mansfield Tiger 6-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Maiden through 16 starts.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 10; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/14 PID 6f D MSW 5th/6 -4L 67 11-1 b L Failed to menace;
8/5 PID 6f D MSW 4th/6 -2¾L 61 4.8-1 b L Late gain 6 wide
6/29 PID 6f D MSW 3rd/7 -1½L 68 6.3-1 b L Bid;loom;evn;dead heat
7Dyno War▼J. Romero · C. RamirezRomero · RamirezC55 46 38▲▲+12@trip 5315-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best55 46 38@trip 53C▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 46 38
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Joseph M Romero 31% career 2-for-16 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Carlos Ramirez 32% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Creating Havoc 15-1, R8: Parker 8-1
CLASS UP
Has moved up each time out, 38 to 46 to 55. A 55 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 14 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 IND 5f T Clm 12k n2l 7th/8 -9L 55 77-1 L No factor
7/30 BTP 5f T MCL 7k 4th/8 -5½L 46 12-1 L Saved ground; no avail
6/18 HAW 5½f D MCL 6k 5th/6 -5½L 38 21-1 L Between foes;wknd 1/8
8Put Me in Coach▼▼E. Roman · G. GorostietaRoman · GorostietaB49 60 67▼▼-16@trip 6020-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1649 60 67@trip 60B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (49 vs 60)
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 60 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (49 vs 60)
Jockey Evin A Roman 33% career 2-for-11 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Guber Gorostieta 18% career
Finished 6th in a 7-horse maiden claiming $12,500 race at IND, beaten 11 lengths. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 25d back)
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/14 IND 6f D MCL 12k 6th/7 -11L 49 24-1 L 4path;faded stretch
5/12 IND 1m T MSW 10th/12 -9¾L 60 77-1 L Evenly4path
3/13 TP 6½f D MCL 7k 2nd/11 -1¾L 67 13-1 L Bob bit st;3-4p;6p3/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	PID	6f D	MSW	5th/6 -4L	67	11-1	b L	Failed to menace;
8/5	PID	6f D	MSW	4th/6 -2¾L	61	4.8-1	b L	Late gain 6 wide
6/29	PID	6f D	MSW	3rd/7 -1½L	68	6.3-1	b L	Bid;loom;evn;dead heat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	IND	5f T	Clm 12k n2l	7th/8 -9L	55	77-1	L	No factor
7/30	BTP	5f T	MCL 7k	4th/8 -5½L	46	12-1	L	Saved ground; no avail
6/18	HAW	5½f D	MCL 6k	5th/6 -5½L	38	21-1	L	Between foes;wknd 1/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	IND	6f D	MCL 12k	6th/7 -11L	49	24-1	L	4path;faded stretch
5/12	IND	1m T	MSW	10th/12 -9¾L	60	77-1	L	Evenly4path
3/13	TP	6½f D	MCL 7k	2nd/11 -1¾L	67	13-1	L	Bob bit st;3-4p;6p3/16

9Zun ReyderY. Correa · C. BrownfieldCorrea · BrownfieldA72 69 71►≡@trip 697-2Fair 5-117%► Steady72 69 71 ≡@trip 69A3

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–72 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 69 71

Jockey Yarmarie L Correa 30% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Claude Brownfield 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Fancy Fascinator 12-1, R3: Legit Chick 5-1, R7: Elle's Dancer 15-1 · Trainer R7: Elle's Dancer 15-1

CLASS DROP

Changes barns, from Michelle Nihei to Claude Brownfield. 3rd of 25 at 3F on Jun 12, in :36.80.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 90d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	IND	1 1/16 T	MCL 12kc	2nd/12 by hd	72	3.7-1	L	Dueled;couldn't last
9/2	IND	1m T	MCL 30k	7th/12 -2½L	69	7.0-1	L	Stalked rail;faded lat
8/11	IND	1 1/16 D	MCL 20k	3rd/10	71	4.1-1	L	Lugged out3/16;yielded

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #9.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $12,500

Field

9 runners

Purse

$24,480

Post

4:00 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 31%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.19

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Melody Man (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 66 · 49 · 68. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #2 Gentleman Jim at 3-1. Use #9 Zun Reyder in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 MELODY MAN (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 MELODY MAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.3% to their 27.0%).
#2 GENTLEMAN JIM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.8% to their 20.2%).
#9 ZUN REYDER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.8% to their 18.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #9 Zun Reyder; pressure from #3 Melody Man.

Lead

none

Press

9Zun Reyder923Melody Man79

Stalk

6Fuoco938Put Me In Coach802Gentleman Jim781Big Tom65

4Southern Soul73

No style yet

5Midnight Master787Dyno War72

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Fuoco

Zun Reyder

Put Me In Coach

Melody Man

Gentleman Jim

Big Tom

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Southern Soul

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