| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/22 | IND | 1m D | Clm 5k b | 3rd/8 | 65 | 1.6-1 | L | Inside;bid3/8;caught |
| 9/15 | IND | 1 1/16 D | sClm5000b | 5th/6 -7½L | 58 | 0.3-1 | L | Reared start |
| 9/8 | IND | 1 1/16 D | Clm 20k b | 5th/8 -½L | 67 | 7.0-1 | L | Stalk3p;bid1/4;gv way |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/29 | IND | 1m D | Clm 5k b | 4th/10 -7½L | 68 | 6.8-1 | b L | Imp st;bid4p1/2;faded |
| 9/15 | IND | 1 1/16 D | sClm5000b | Won/6 by 2½ | 75 | 4.6-1 | b L | Stlk3p;rally3/8;in tim |
| 8/25 | IND | 1m D | Clm 5k b | 3rd/9 -4L | 72 | 3.5-1 | b L | Stlk btw;faded stretch |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/22 | IND | 1m D | Clm 5k b | 7th/8 -10L | 58 | 5.6-1 | L | Rail;sted1/4;gave way |
| 9/15 | IND | 1 1/16 D | sClm5000b | 2nd/6 | 74 | 5.5-1 | L | Clear2path;caught |
| 8/27 | IND | 1m D | sOC15000 | 6th/7 -7¼L | 59 | 7.6-1 | L | Awk start;no late bid |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/22 | IND | 1m T | sAlw41400n2x | 8th/9 -9½L | 61 | 102-1 | L | Stalked4p;faded str |
| 9/16 | IND | 1m T | sAlw41200n2x | 8th/8 -13L | 46 | 36-1 | L | Chk5/8;keen;faded3/8 |
| 9/8 | IND | 1m T | sAlw43000n2x | 5th/9 -4½L | 75 | 34-1 | L | Sted early;3p;bid1/8 |
★ Distance horse: #10 Monumentaljustice (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 80 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1Fervent PrayerM. Murrill · A. GranitzMurrill · GranitzB58 74 59▼▼-9@trip 746-1Fair 7-112%
▼▼ Big drop -958 74 59@trip 74B3Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 74 59
Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career 8-for-47 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Anthony J Granitz 26% career 2-for-23 on dirt this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R1: Face The Future 7-2, R2: Spirited Justice 2-1, R4: Rum Rock 7-2, R7: Tiz In Sight 12-1★ FASTEST WORKLast out was 7th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at IND. Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 10 (4F in :54.00), 0 works in 30dRECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 15 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/22 IND 1m D Clm 5k b 7th/8 -10L 58 5.6-1 L Rail;sted1/4;gave way 9/15 IND 1 1/16 D sClm5000b 2nd/6 74 5.5-1 L Clear2path;caught 8/27 IND 1m D sOC15000 6th/7 -7¼L 59 7.6-1 L Awk start;no late bid 2Parker▼J. Romero · A. Gonzalez Jr.Romero · Gonzalez Jr.C47 58 70▼▼-18↕@trip 708-1Fair 12-17%
▼▼ Big drop -1847 58 70 ↕@trip 70C▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–70 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 58 70
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77Jockey Joseph M Romero 31% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Agustin Jr Gonzalez 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meetDrops from allowance to $5,000 claiming. Figures have slipped: 70, 58, 47 over its last three.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bid4p3/8; faltered str), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 45 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 6 on the board from 13 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/19 IND 1m D sAlw41000n1x 8th/8 -9½L 47 26-1 L Bid4p3/8;faltered str 10/1 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw41000n1x 8th/9 -8L 58 16-1 L Inside;3p str;no bid 9/1 IND 1 1/16 D sAlw41000n1x 4th/8 -5L 70 10-1 L Stmb;stalked4p;faded 3Mansfield TigerE. Esquivel · T. EgglestonEsquivel · EgglestonB51 64 73▼▼-16@trip 786-1Fair 8-112%
▼▼ Big drop -1651 64 73@trip 78BCard model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 64 73
Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 40 · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 18-for-113 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot8/15 board hereTrending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 64 to 51. Finished 6th in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at IND, beaten 11 lengths.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 79 days agoRECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 15 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 IND 1m D Clm 5k 6th/6 -11L 51 3.7-1 b L 4path;gave way str 9/29 IND 1m D Clm 5k b 6th/10 -9L 64 17-1 b L Hop;rail;3p3/8;no bid 9/15 IND 1 1/16 D sClm5000b 3rd/6 -3L 73 10-1 b L Stalked rail;bid1/4 4He B Ready▼LSJ. Ramos · M. LauerRamos · LauerC61 46 75►↕@trip 7010-1Fair 12-17%
► Steady61 46 75 ↕@trip 70C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLSCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–75 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 46 75
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Joseph D Ramos 34% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Michael Lauer 25% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%)Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Class relief: allowance last time, $5,000 claiming today.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 23d backRECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 10 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/22 IND 1m T sAlw41400n2x 8th/9 -9½L 61 102-1 L Stalked4p;faded str 9/16 IND 1m T sAlw41200n2x 8th/8 -13L 46 36-1 L Chk5/8;keen;faded3/8 9/8 IND 1m T sAlw43000n2x 5th/9 -4½L 75 34-1 L Sted early;3p;bid1/8 5Star ReviewJ. Gutierrez · S. MullinsGutierrez · MullinsC71 61 63▲▲+10@trip 7512-1Fair 20-14%
▲▲ Big jump +1071 61 63@trip 75CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 61 63
Jockey Jose Ramos Gutierrez 32% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Scott D Mullins 34% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)A 72 top number against a 77 par, so it fits the level. 3rd of 11 at 3F on Jul 10, in :38.80.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 75d back)RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 16 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 IND 1m D Clm 5k 3rd/6 -4L 71 9.8-1 b L Stalk;inside;no match 9/11 IND 1m T sAlw41000n1x 7th/10 -6L 61 38-1 b L Angld3p3/16;faltered 8/25 IND 1m D Clm 5k b 6th/9 -11L 63 23-1 b L 2path;no late bid 6Ice ExpressJ. Riquelme · I. GarciaRiquelme · GarciaA63 78 55▼-3↕5-1Fair 10-19%
▼ Down -363 78 55 ↕ACard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–78 · Last 3 figs 63 78 55
Jockey J Riquelme 24% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Israel J Garcia 32% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meetCLASS UPGoes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time. Was running in $12,500 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)TROUBLED TRIP Bid6p3/8; faltered1/4 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Mar 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 14 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/19 IND 6f D Clm 12k b 7th/7 -7L 63 15-1 b L Bid6p3/8;faltered1/4 10/7 IND 6f D sClm6250 2nd/6 -1½L 78 5.7-1 b L Slow start;bid1/2;duel 7/29 IND 6f D Alw n1x 8th/8 -10L 55 91-1 b L 4path;faded turn 7Little JakeA. Mendoza · G. GarciaMendoza · GarciaB65 58 67►@trip 679-2Fair 9-218%
► Steady65 58 67@trip 67B1Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 67 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 58 67
Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career 13-for-78 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 14-for-84 on dirt this meet (17%)Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Macy 9-2, R3: Stephens Dream 8-1, R6: Melody Man 2-1, R7: Momentario 10-1 · Trainer R2: Don't Miss Out 3-1, R2: Patty Van Twinkle 15-1, this race: Coach Knight 4-110/16 board hereWent to the front early last out (early pace figure 79). Best recent figure of 77 sits right around the 77 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on May 16; 1 work in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 10 on the board from 16 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/22 IND 1m D Clm 5k b 3rd/8 65 1.6-1 L Inside;bid3/8;caught 9/15 IND 1 1/16 D sClm5000b 5th/6 -7½L 58 0.3-1 L Reared start 9/8 IND 1 1/16 D Clm 20k b 5th/8 -½L 67 7.0-1 L Stalk3p;bid1/4;gv way 8King IceR. Prescott · S. McGovernPrescott · McGovernC63 70 63▼-5@trip 748-1Fair 12-18%
▼ Down -563 70 63@trip 74CCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 70 63
Jockey R Prescott 26% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Shannon McGovern 1-for-5 on dirt this meetCLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK5 wins from 12 starts at this distance. A big drop, $15,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.TROUBLED TRIP 4-5w; light bumps bkstr last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Aug 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 9 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 FPK 1 1/16 D Clm 15k 7th/8 -12L 63 7.0-1 b L 4-5w;light bumps bkstr 9/14 IND 1m D sOC15000 3rd/7 -10L 70 15-1 b L Sqzd;3p;bid3/8;faded 8/27 IND 1m D sOC15000 4th/7 -3L 63 3.5-1 b L Stlk3p;bid1/2;faded1/8 9Coach KnightV. Lara · G. GarciaLara · GarciaA68 75 72▼-3@trip 754-1Fair 6-115%
▼ Down -368 75 72@trip 75A2Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 75 72
Jockey Victor Lara 26% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 40 · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 14-for-84 on dirt this meet (17%)Also today · Jockey R1: Wicked Suprise 7-2, R2: Lit Miss Hat Trick 15-1, R4: Unconnected 20-1, R6: Midnight Master 25-1 · Trainer R2: Don't Miss Out 3-1, R2: Patty Van Twinkle 15-1, this race: Little Jake 9-2Carries 116 pounds, 5 less than last time. 4 wins from 11 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 76 days agoRECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 9 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/29 IND 1m D Clm 5k b 4th/10 -7½L 68 6.8-1 b L Imp st;bid4p1/2;faded 9/15 IND 1 1/16 D sClm5000b Won/6 by 2½ 75 4.6-1 b L Stlk3p;rally3/8;in tim 8/25 IND 1m D Clm 5k b 3rd/9 -4L 72 3.5-1 b L Stlk btw;faded stretch 10Monumentaljustice★A. Burgos · T. MedinaBurgos · MedinaA74 71 79►@trip 808-1Fair 12-17%
► Steady74 71 79@trip 80A★ Best at the trip 80Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 71 79
★ Best at the trip 80Jockey Alberto Burgos 32% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Tomas Medina 32% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R4: El Oso 12-1, R5: Cherry Pink 15-1, R7: Grimes Glen 20-1 · Trainer R2: Spirited Justice 2-1CLASS UPSwitches from turf to dirt. Owns the highest recent figure here at 79.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 160d agoRECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 17 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 IND 1 1/16 T Clm 12k b 8th/10 -4L 74 17-1 b Inside trip 9/14 IND 1m D sOC15000 2nd/7 -8½L 71 6.8-1 b Bid3p3/8;no match 8/25 IND 1m D Clm 5k b 2nd/9 by hd 79 2.1-1 b L Dueled str;outfinished
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 8
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 97.98
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #7 Little Jake (early speed, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 65 · 58 · 67. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Coach Knight at 4-1. Use #1 Fervent Prayer in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 COACH KNIGHT (4-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #7 LITTLE JAKE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.0%, they've got 13.6%.
- #9 COACH KNIGHT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.3% to their 15.0%).
- #1 FERVENT PRAYER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.1% to their 10.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- #7 LITTLE JAKE — we make it 16.0%, the morning line works out to 13.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #10 Monumentaljustice; pressure from #6 Ice Express, #7 Little Jake; the shape helps #2 Parker; and works against #6 Ice Express, #7 Little Jake, #10 Monumentaljustice.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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