Pick sheet
Race 85:00 PM Clm 5000
8.3F · Dirt · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Little Jake, is 18% to win (morning line implies 14%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
Top pick #7 Little Jake ML 9-2 Fair 9-2 Model #1 ► Steady
Jockey A. Mendoza · Trainer G. Garcia · KEE 16: 2-7-1 · Dist 10: 2-4-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 67 · 11 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/22IND1m DClm 5k b3rd/8651.6-1LInside;bid3/8;caught
9/15IND1 1/16 DsClm5000b5th/6 -7½L580.3-1LReared start
9/8IND1 1/16 DClm 20k b5th/8 -½L677.0-1LStalk3p;bid1/4;gv way
Case: Last out 3rd in the Clm5000b at IND. Last Brisnet figures 65-58-67. Best at today's distance 67. 2-for-10 at the distance. 2-for-16 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. G. Garcia / A. Mendoza.
Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
Contender #9 Coach Knight ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -3
Jockey V. Lara · Trainer G. Garcia · KEE 9: 1-0-2 · Dist 11: 4-2-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 75 · 34 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
9/29IND1m DClm 5k b4th/10 -7½L686.8-1b LImp st;bid4p1/2;faded
9/15IND1 1/16 DsClm5000bWon/6 by 2½754.6-1b LStlk3p;rally3/8;in tim
8/25IND1m DClm 5k b3rd/9 -4L723.5-1b LStlk btw;faded stretch
Case: Last out 4th/10 -7½L in the Clm5000b at IND. Last Brisnet figures 68-75-72. Best at today's distance 75. 4-for-11 at the distance. 1-for-9 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. G. Garcia / V. Lara.
Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Use #1 Fervent Prayer ML 6-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -9 Last out 7th/8 -10L in the Clm5000b at IND. Last Brisnet figures 58-74-59. Best at today's distance 74. 3-for-6 at the distance. 3-for-14 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. A. Granitz / M. Murrill. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
Jockey M. Murrill · Trainer A. Granitz · KEE 14: 3-2-0 · Dist 6: 3-1-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 74 · 11 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/22IND1m DClm 5k b7th/8 -10L585.6-1LRail;sted1/4;gave way
9/15IND1 1/16 DsClm5000b2nd/6745.5-1LClear2path;caught
8/27IND1m DsOC150006th/7 -7¼L597.6-1LAwk start;no late bid
Longshot #4 He B Ready ML 10-1 Fair 12-1 Model #9 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 46–75 ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey J. Ramos · Trainer M. Lauer · KEE 25: 4-2-3 · Dist 4: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 70 · 11 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/22IND1m TsAlw41400n2x8th/9 -9½L61102-1LStalked4p;faded str
9/16IND1m TsAlw41200n2x8th/8 -13L4636-1LChk5/8;keen;faded3/8
9/8IND1m TsAlw43000n2x5th/9 -4½L7534-1LSted early;3p;bid1/8
Case: Last out 8th/9 -9½L in the sAlw41400n2x at IND. Last Brisnet figures 61-46-75. Best at today's distance 70. 1-for-4 at the distance. 4-for-25 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. M. Lauer / J. Ramos.
Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
★ Distance horse: #10 Monumentaljustice (8-1) has the best figure in the field at 1 1/16 dirt: 80 from 2 tries, record at the distance 8: 2-2-0. Not one of our picks.
Narrowing the field: A #6, #9, #10 · B #1, #3, #7 · C #2, #4, #5, #8
Angles: #2 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #4 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R8 Indiana Downs · Claiming $5,000

5:00 PM ET · 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt · $15,000 · 10 runners5:00 PM · 8.3f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $15K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #10 Monumentaljustice (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 80 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Fervent PrayerM. Murrill · A. GranitzMurrill · GranitzB58 74 59▼▼-9@trip 746-1Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -958 74 59@trip 74B3

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 74 59

    Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career 8-for-47 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Anthony J Granitz 26% career 2-for-23 on dirt this meet (9%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Face The Future 7-2, R2: Spirited Justice 2-1, R4: Rum Rock 7-2, R7: Tiz In Sight 12-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Last out was 7th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at IND. Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 10 (4F in :54.00), 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 15 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/22IND1m DClm 5k b7th/8 -10L585.6-1LRail;sted1/4;gave way
    9/15IND1 1/16 DsClm5000b2nd/6745.5-1LClear2path;caught
    8/27IND1m DsOC150006th/7 -7¼L597.6-1LAwk start;no late bid
  2. 2Parker▼J. Romero · A. Gonzalez Jr.Romero · Gonzalez Jr.C47 58 70▼▼-18↕@trip 708-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -1847 58 70 ↕@trip 70C▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–70 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 58 70

    ▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77
    Jockey Joseph M Romero 31% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Agustin Jr Gonzalez 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Creating Havoc 15-1, R6: Dyno War 15-1 · Trainer R4: Creating Havoc 15-1

    Drops from allowance to $5,000 claiming. Figures have slipped: 70, 58, 47 over its last three.

    PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bid4p3/8; faltered str), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 45 days ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 6 on the board from 13 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/19IND1m DsAlw41000n1x8th/8 -9½L4726-1LBid4p3/8;faltered str
    10/1IND1 1/16 TsAlw41000n1x8th/9 -8L5816-1LInside;3p str;no bid
    9/1IND1 1/16 DsAlw41000n1x4th/8 -5L7010-1LStmb;stalked4p;faded
  3. 3Mansfield TigerE. Esquivel · T. EgglestonEsquivel · EgglestonB51 64 73▼▼-16@trip 786-1Fair 8-112%▼▼ Big drop -1651 64 73@trip 78B

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 64 73

    Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 40 · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 18-for-113 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: What's Up Dog 7-2, R3: She's Honed In 5-2, R6: Fuoco 5-1
    8/15 board here

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 64 to 51. Finished 6th in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at IND, beaten 11 lengths.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 79 days ago
    RECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 15 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15IND1m DClm 5k6th/6 -11L513.7-1b L4path;gave way str
    9/29IND1m DClm 5k b6th/10 -9L6417-1b LHop;rail;3p3/8;no bid
    9/15IND1 1/16 DsClm5000b3rd/6 -3L7310-1b LStalked rail;bid1/4
  4. 4He B Ready▼LSJ. Ramos · M. LauerRamos · LauerC61 46 75►↕@trip 7010-1Fair 12-17%► Steady61 46 75 ↕@trip 70C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–75 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 46 75

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

    Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Joseph D Ramos 34% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Michael Lauer 25% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R7: Office 5-2

    Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Class relief: allowance last time, $5,000 claiming today.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 23d back
    RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 10 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/22IND1m TsAlw41400n2x8th/9 -9½L61102-1LStalked4p;faded str
    9/16IND1m TsAlw41200n2x8th/8 -13L4636-1LChk5/8;keen;faded3/8
    9/8IND1m TsAlw43000n2x5th/9 -4½L7534-1LSted early;3p;bid1/8
  5. 5Star ReviewJ. Gutierrez · S. MullinsGutierrez · MullinsC71 61 63▲▲+10@trip 7512-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1071 61 63@trip 75C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 61 63

    Jockey Jose Ramos Gutierrez 32% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Scott D Mullins 34% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Ease My Mind 8-1

    A 72 top number against a 77 par, so it fits the level. 3rd of 11 at 3F on Jul 10, in :38.80.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 75d back)
    RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 16 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15IND1m DClm 5k3rd/6 -4L719.8-1b LStalk;inside;no match
    9/11IND1m TsAlw41000n1x7th/10 -6L6138-1b LAngld3p3/16;faltered
    8/25IND1m DClm 5k b6th/9 -11L6323-1b L2path;no late bid
  6. 6Ice ExpressJ. Riquelme · I. GarciaRiquelme · GarciaA63 78 55▼-3↕5-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -363 78 55 ↕A

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–78 · Last 3 figs 63 78 55

    Jockey J Riquelme 24% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Israel J Garcia 32% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Slip Strike 15-1
    CLASS UP

    Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time. Was running in $12,500 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
    TROUBLED TRIP Bid6p3/8; faltered1/4 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Mar 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 14 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/19IND6f DClm 12k b7th/7 -7L6315-1b LBid6p3/8;faltered1/4
    10/7IND6f DsClm62502nd/6 -1½L785.7-1b LSlow start;bid1/2;duel
    7/29IND6f DAlw n1x8th/8 -10L5591-1b L4path;faded turn
  7. 7Little JakeA. Mendoza · G. GarciaMendoza · GarciaB65 58 67►@trip 679-2Fair 9-218%► Steady65 58 67@trip 67B1

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 67 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 58 67

    Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career 13-for-78 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 14-for-84 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Macy 9-2, R3: Stephens Dream 8-1, R6: Melody Man 2-1, R7: Momentario 10-1 · Trainer R2: Don't Miss Out 3-1, R2: Patty Van Twinkle 15-1, this race: Coach Knight 4-1
    10/16 board here

    Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 79). Best recent figure of 77 sits right around the 77 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on May 16; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 10 on the board from 16 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/22IND1m DClm 5k b3rd/8651.6-1LInside;bid3/8;caught
    9/15IND1 1/16 DsClm5000b5th/6 -7½L580.3-1LReared start
    9/8IND1 1/16 DClm 20k b5th/8 -½L677.0-1LStalk3p;bid1/4;gv way
  8. 8King IceR. Prescott · S. McGovernPrescott · McGovernC63 70 63▼-5@trip 748-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -563 70 63@trip 74C

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 70 63

    Jockey R Prescott 26% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Shannon McGovern 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Organized 3-1, R3: School Spirit 10-1, R4: Old Trace 8-1, R7: Panache 15-1
    CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

    5 wins from 12 starts at this distance. A big drop, $15,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    TROUBLED TRIP 4-5w; light bumps bkstr last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Aug 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 9 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10FPK1 1/16 DClm 15k7th/8 -12L637.0-1b L4-5w;light bumps bkstr
    9/14IND1m DsOC150003rd/7 -10L7015-1b LSqzd;3p;bid3/8;faded
    8/27IND1m DsOC150004th/7 -3L633.5-1b LStlk3p;bid1/2;faded1/8
  9. 9Coach KnightV. Lara · G. GarciaLara · GarciaA68 75 72▼-3@trip 754-1Fair 6-115%▼ Down -368 75 72@trip 75A2

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 75 72

    Jockey Victor Lara 26% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 40 · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 14-for-84 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Wicked Suprise 7-2, R2: Lit Miss Hat Trick 15-1, R4: Unconnected 20-1, R6: Midnight Master 25-1 · Trainer R2: Don't Miss Out 3-1, R2: Patty Van Twinkle 15-1, this race: Little Jake 9-2

    Carries 116 pounds, 5 less than last time. 4 wins from 11 starts at this distance.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 76 days ago
    RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/29IND1m DClm 5k b4th/10 -7½L686.8-1b LImp st;bid4p1/2;faded
    9/15IND1 1/16 DsClm5000bWon/6 by 2½754.6-1b LStlk3p;rally3/8;in tim
    8/25IND1m DClm 5k b3rd/9 -4L723.5-1b LStlk btw;faded stretch
  10. 10Monumentaljustice★A. Burgos · T. MedinaBurgos · MedinaA74 71 79►@trip 808-1Fair 12-17%► Steady74 71 79@trip 80A★ Best at the trip 80

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 71 79

    ★ Best at the trip 80
    Jockey Alberto Burgos 32% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Tomas Medina 32% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: El Oso 12-1, R5: Cherry Pink 15-1, R7: Grimes Glen 20-1 · Trainer R2: Spirited Justice 2-1
    CLASS UP

    Switches from turf to dirt. Owns the highest recent figure here at 79.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 160d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 17 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/6IND1 1/16 TClm 12k b8th/10 -4L7417-1bInside trip
    9/14IND1m DsOC150002nd/7 -8½L716.8-1bBid3p3/8;no match
    8/25IND1m DClm 5k b2nd/9 by hd792.1-1b LDueled str;outfinished

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART1 MILE 70 YARDS · DIRT · main2-turn

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field
10 runners
Purse
$15,000
Post
5:00 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#7 · 18%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 97.98

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #7 Little Jake (early speed, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 65 · 58 · 67. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Coach Knight at 4-1. Use #1 Fervent Prayer in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #9 COACH KNIGHT (4-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #7 LITTLE JAKE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.0%, they've got 13.6%.
  • #9 COACH KNIGHT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.3% to their 15.0%).
  • #1 FERVENT PRAYER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.1% to their 10.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #7 LITTLE JAKE — we make it 16.0%, the morning line works out to 13.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #10 Monumentaljustice; pressure from #6 Ice Express, #7 Little Jake; the shape helps #2 Parker; and works against #6 Ice Express, #7 Little Jake, #10 Monumentaljustice.

Lead
10Monumentaljustice856Ice Express837Little Jake79
Press
9Coach Knight721Fervent Prayer70
Stalk
5Star Review753Mansfield Tiger748King Ice714He B Ready67
Close
2Parker68

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

10
Monumentaljustice
85
6
Ice Express
83
7
Little Jake
79
5
Star Review
75
3
Mansfield Tiger
74
9
Coach Knight
72
8
King Ice
71
1
Fervent Prayer
70
4
He B Ready
67

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

2
Parker
14
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