Pick sheet

Race 32:30 PM Alw 46240n2l

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, She's Honed in, is 30% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #7 She's Honed in ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -13 ▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey E. Esquivel · Trainer C. Contreras · KEE 5: 1-1-0 · Dist 3: 0-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 73 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	IND	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	9th/10 -10L	57	51-1	b L	Stlk btw;gave way1/4
9/2	IND	1m D	Alw n2x	2nd/5 -1L	68	7.2-1	b L	Press;bid5/16;no match
7/28	IND	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	4th/6 -½L	76	11-1	L	Inside;couldn't last

Case: Last out 9th/10 -10L in the fAlw34000n1x at IND. Last Brisnet figures 57-68-76. Best at today's distance 73. 0-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. C. Contreras / E. Esquivel.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance.

Contender #5 Sudden Squall ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best ↕ Up and down 53–74 ▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey D. MacHado · Trainer E. West · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 4: 1-0-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 74 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	IND	6f D	MCL 20k	Won/5	74	0.2-1	b L	3p;rally3/8;clear1/8
8/16	ELP	6f D	MCL 16k	3rd/10 -2½L	73	2.6-1	b L	Stmbl/jostld st;chk3/8
5/29	CD	1m T	MCL 50k	9th/11 -10L	54	13-1	b L	5-4p;chsd 4-3p upr;wkn

Case: Last out won in the fMd20000 at IND. Last Brisnet figures 74-73-54. Best at today's distance 74. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. E. West / D. MacHado.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #1 Signdsealddeliverd ML 5-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +5 ≡ Steady 65–73 ▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 86 1st-time blinkers Last out 3rd in the fAlw34000n2l at IND. Last Brisnet figures 73-65-72. Best at today's distance 76. 1-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. S. Shaffer / J. Bealmear. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey J. Bealmear · Trainer S. Shaffer · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 7: 1-3-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 76 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	IND	6f D	Alw n2l	3rd/6 -8½L	73	38-1	L	Awk;angld4p3/16
8/30	CBY	1m T	Alw b	6th/8 -6¼L	65	15-1	L	Off pc;2p;no bid
7/31	PRM	6f D	MSW	Won/8 by nk	72	5.3-1	LB	5wd bid upr;going awy

★ Distance horse: #4 Stephens Dream (8-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 78 from 6 tries, record at the distance 6: 1-0-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #7 · B #2, #4, #6 · C #3

Angles: #1 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #2 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #3 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #4 Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #4 Lone speed on early pace · #5 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #6 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #7 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 86

R3 Indiana Downs · Allowance · $46,240 purse

2:30 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $46,240 · 7 runners2:30 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $46K · Allowance · $46,240 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 Stephens Dream (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 78 from 6 tries. Not in our top three.

1Signdsealddeliverd▼J. Bealmear · S. ShafferBealmear · ShafferA73 65 72▲+5≡@trip 765-1Fair 6-114%▲ Up +573 65 72 ≡@trip 76A▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 863
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 65–73 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 65 72
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Joseph C Bealmear 26% career 4-for-48 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Sarah E Shaffer 28% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: This Little Light 4-1, R7: Sarissa 12-1 · Trainer this race: Stephens Dream 8-1
Moves up from allowance to allowance. Best recent figure is 73, well under the 86 par for this level.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 21 (3F in :37.00), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 IND 6f D Alw n2l 3rd/6 -8½L 73 38-1 L Awk;angld4p3/16
8/30 CBY 1m T Alw b 6th/8 -6¼L 65 15-1 L Off pc;2p;no bid
7/31 PRM 6f D MSW Won/8 by nk 72 5.3-1 LB 5wd bid upr;going awy

2High Dollar Dolly▼I. Moncada · M. ElliottMoncada · ElliottB74 50 65▲▲+18↕@trip 614-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best74 50 65 ↕@trip 61B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–74 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 50 65

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Irving Moncada 33% career 1-for-30 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Michelle L Elliott 31% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%)

WON LAST3/4 board here

Won last out in a 9-horse maiden claiming $12,500 race at IND. Raises its level, maiden claiming $12,500 last time and allowance now.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 40 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	IND	5½f D	MCL 12k	Won/9	74	4.9-1	b L	Duel;bid5/16;driving
6/4	IND	1m T	MCL 12k	8th/10 -13L	50	12-1	b L	Inside;faded1/2
5/12	IND	1m D	MCL 12k	2nd/8 -2½L	65	9.5-1	b L	Sqzd;bid3p3/8;rallied

3School Spirit▼R. Prescott · C. ContrerasPrescott · ContrerasC63 62 69▼-5@trip 7410-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -563 62 69@trip 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 62 69

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey R Prescott 26% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Cipriano Contreras 36% career ★ 7-for-21 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 43

Also today · Jockey R1: Organized 3-1, R4: Old Trace 8-1, R7: Panache 15-1, R8: King Ice 8-1 · Trainer R2: What's Up Dog 7-2, this race: She's Honed In 5-2

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 74 against a 86 par. R Prescott takes over from Evin A Roman in the saddle.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 21; 3 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/8	IND	6f D	Clm 20k n2x	5th/8 -9L	63	17-1	L	Improved position late
8/25	IND	6f D	Alw n2l	5th/7 -8½L	62	11-1	L	Broke sharply;faded1/2
11/12	IND	6f D	MSW	Won/8 by 1½	69	6.6-1	L	Stmb to knees;bid3/8

4Stephens Dream▼▲★A. Mendoza · S. ShafferMendoza · ShafferB66 66 69►≡@trip 788-1Fair 15-17%► Steady66 66 69 ≡@trip 78B▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 78

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 62–69 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 66 69

▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 78

Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career 13-for-78 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Sarah E Shaffer 28% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Macy 9-2, R6: Melody Man 2-1, R7: Momentario 10-1, R8: Little Jake 9-2 · Trainer this race: Signdsealddeliverd 5-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 78. Jockey switch: Joseph C Bealmear last out, Amir Mendoza today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 5 (4F in :47.40), 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/16	IND	6f D	Alw n2l	5th/6 -2L	66	25-1	b L	Vied rail;gave way1/8
8/15	ELP	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	5th/11 -5½L	66	15-1	L	5p;chased 6p1/4;no bid
7/10	ELP	6f D	Clm 50k n2l	4th/5 -5L	69	10-1	L	Track ins;chased;faded

5Sudden Squall▼D. MacHado · E. WestMacHado · WestA74 73 54▲▲+14↕@trip 743-1Fair 7-224%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best74 73 54 ↕@trip 74A▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 862

Card model 24% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 73 54

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Dylan Machado 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ethan W West 36% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R7: Shameless Bride 7-2

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 54 to 73 to 74. Comes in off a victory in a 5-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at IND.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 89 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	IND	6f D	MCL 20k	Won/5	74	0.2-1	b L	3p;rally3/8;clear1/8
8/16	ELP	6f D	MCL 16k	3rd/10 -2½L	73	2.6-1	b L	Stmbl/jostld st;chk3/8
5/29	CD	1m T	MCL 50k	9th/11 -10L	54	13-1	b L	5-4p;chsd 4-3p upr;wkn

6Legit Chick▼Y. Correa · S. DunnCorrea · DunnB74 62 62▲▲+14@trip 675-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best74 62 62@trip 67B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 67 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 62 62
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Yarmarie L Correa 30% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Stephen D Dunn 30% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Fancy Fascinator 12-1, R6: Zun Reyder 7-2, R7: Elle's Dancer 15-1
WON LAST3/4 board here
Last start was a win, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at BTP at 2.6-1. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, allowance today.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)
SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Speed; much the best.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.00 on May 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 BTP 5½f D MSW Won/9 74 2.6-1 L Speed;much the best
9/14 IND 6f D MCL 20k 2nd/5 -3½L 62 3.6-1 L Duel;settled;no bid
8/23 ELP 6½f D MCL 30k 6th/9 -6L 62 20-1 b L Brush start;3p;tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	BTP	5½f D	MSW	Won/9	74	2.6-1	L	Speed;much the best
9/14	IND	6f D	MCL 20k	2nd/5 -3½L	62	3.6-1	L	Duel;settled;no bid
8/23	ELP	6½f D	MCL 30k	6th/9 -6L	62	20-1	b L	Brush start;3p;tired

7She's Honed in▼E. Esquivel · C. ContrerasEsquivel · ContrerasA57 68 76▼▼-13@trip 735-2Fair 5-230%▼▼ Big drop -1357 68 76@trip 73A▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 861

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 68 76

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 40 · Trainer Cipriano Contreras 36% career ★ 7-for-21 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 43 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: What's Up Dog 7-2, R6: Fuoco 5-1, R8: Mansfield Tiger 6-1 · Trainer R2: What's Up Dog 7-2, this race: School Spirit 10-1

Switches from turf to dirt. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 68d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	IND	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	9th/10 -10L	57	51-1	b L	Stlk btw;gave way1/4
9/2	IND	1m D	Alw n2x	2nd/5 -1L	68	7.2-1	b L	Press;bid5/16;no match
7/28	IND	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	4th/6 -½L	76	11-1	L	Inside;couldn't last

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Allowance · $46,240 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$46,240

Post

2:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#7 · 30%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.59

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 She's Honed In (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 57 · 68 · 76. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #5 Sudden Squall at 3-1. Use #1 Signdsealddeliverd in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 SHE'S HONED IN (5-2) — our number agrees.
#7 SHE'S HONED IN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 22.5%).
#5 SUDDEN SQUALL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 19.7%).
#2 HIGH DOLLAR DOLLY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.8% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 She's Honed In; pressure from #6 Legit Chick, #4 Stephens Dream; the shape helps #2 High Dollar Dolly, #3 School Spirit, #4 Stephens Dream; and works against #6 Legit Chick, #7 She's Honed In.

Lead

7She's Honed In936Legit Chick85

Press

4Stephens Dream932High Dollar Dolly91

Stalk

3School Spirit81

1Signdsealddeliverd895Sudden Squall84

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Stephens Dream

She's Honed In

High Dollar Dolly

Legit Chick

School Spirit

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sudden Squall

Signdsealddeliverd

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