MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 6
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 440 Yards: 21.0
The shape is the story here: 7 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Fully Connected (early speed, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 52 · 65 · 66. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #1 Cash Customer at 1-1. Use #7 Can She Scoot in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Switches from turf to dirt. 5 wins from 13 starts at this distance.
Won last out in a 6-horse allowance race at MNR. Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 84 for the next best.
Class relief: allowance last time, $5,000 claiming today. Last out was 2nd, 4 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse allowance race at MNR.
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. A 72 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par.
Moves up from $3,200 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Shortens up to 440 yards after going 1210 yards.
Was running in $10,000 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
A 55-day gap since its last race. 3rd of 52 at 4F on Dec 18, in :46.80.
Figures have slipped: 69, 65, 53 over its last three. New trainer: Jessica L Pizzurro had it last time, Darren Henrich now.
Changes barns, from Scott E Young to Ben Delong. 12th last time, 22 lengths back, in a field of 12.
Cuts back from 1320 yards to 440 yards. Best recent figure is 73, well under the 82 par for this level.
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 CASH CUSTOMER (1-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #1 CASH CUSTOMER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (35.9% to their 38.9%).
- #7 CAN SHE SCOOT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 13.0%).
- #8 FRENCH ONION — our #7 number, a price play — we're at 8.7%, the board 8.6%.
Value read
- Longshot value: #6 FULLY CONNECTED (12-1) — our fair 8.0% is above the morning line's 6.0%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #10 Toomuchaintenough; pressure from #5 Smart Coverage, #8 French Onion; and works against #1 Cash Customer, #2 Face Abarrio, #3 Corman.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#6 Fully Connected (place saver: #1 Cash Customer)
#6 Fully Connected rates the best; #1 Cash Customer the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#6 Fully Connected · #1 Cash Customer
Two standouts with little between them — box #6 Fully Connected and #1 Cash Customer both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#6 Fully Connected · #1 Cash Customer · #7 Can She Scoot
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#6 Fully Connected / #1 Cash Customer · #7 Can She Scoot · #9 El Gavilan · #2 Face Abarrio / #1 Cash Customer · #7 Can She Scoot · #9 El Gavilan · #2 Face Abarrio / ALL or #1 Cash Customer · #7 Can She Scoot · #9 El Gavilan · #2 Face Abarrio
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
$2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1 SUPERFECTA $.20 BOX $2 PICK 3 (RACES
6-8) $1 WHEEL