MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 8
UPCOMINGClaiming $4,000
Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.81
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Air Show (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 65 · 78 · 81. Backup is #14 Zippy Gizmo at 5-1. Use #2 Mischievous Juan in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
249 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. A big drop, $10,000 claiming to $4,000 claiming, and worth asking why.
Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call.
Beaten 5½ lengths for 3rd in a 10-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR. Carries 119 pounds, 5 less than last time.
A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today. Finished 6th in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR, beaten 1½ lengths.
Switches from turf to dirt. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.
Figures have slipped: 74, 59, 48 over its last three. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 68 to 66 to 60. Led at the first call last time.
Best recent figure of 73 sits right around the 77 par. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 87).
A step up in company: $3,200 claiming before, $4,000 claiming today. A 66 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.
8th last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 10. Figures have slipped: 70, 64, 56 over its last three.
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 68 against a 77 par. Last out was 3rd, 4 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR.
2nd of 7 at 3F on Sep 11, in :37.00. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today.
The Jun 21 work, 4F in :48.20, was the best time at that distance that morning. Worked 4F in :49.20 on Jun 9, 2nd of 18 at the distance.
0 for 7 at today's distance. Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 6 furlongs.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 AIR SHOW (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #6 AIR SHOW — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 19.7%).
- #5 FAR FROM HOME — our #8 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 14.8%).
- #14 ZIPPY GIZMO — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 10.8%, the board 9.8%.
Value read
- Longshot value: #4 YOU ARE AWESOME (20-1) — our fair 3.3% is above the morning line's 2.8%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Kozy's Wildcat; pressure from #5 Far From Home, #11 Uncaptured Boy; the shape helps #1 Milano, #2 Mischievous Juan, #8 Etretat; and works against #3 Kozy's Wildcat, #5 Far From Home, #11 Uncaptured Boy.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#6 Air Show (place saver: #14 Zippy Gizmo)
#6 Air Show rates the best; #14 Zippy Gizmo the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#6 Air Show · #14 Zippy Gizmo
Two standouts with little between them — box #6 Air Show and #14 Zippy Gizmo both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#6 Air Show · #14 Zippy Gizmo · #2 Mischievous Juan
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#6 Air Show / #14 Zippy Gizmo · #2 Mischievous Juan · #13 Offutt Cole · #4 You Are Awesome / #14 Zippy Gizmo · #2 Mischievous Juan · #13 Offutt Cole · #4 You Are Awesome / ALL or #14 Zippy Gizmo · #2 Mischievous Juan · #13 Offutt Cole · #4 You Are Awesome
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
2ND HALF DAILY DOUBLE $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1 SUPERFECTA $.20
BOX $1 SUPER 5 $.50 BOX