MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 1
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $12,500
Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.3
The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #14 Onore (a closer, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 65 · 71 · 86. Backup is #10 Legal Titan at 3-1. Use #4 Replevin in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 86 to 71 to 65. Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Apr 18, in :37.80.
Winner of a 7-horse optional claiming race at MNR last time. An 82 top number against a 81 par, so it fits the level.
2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
Last out was 2nd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at MNR. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
Has won 4 of 10 going today's distance. A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, allowance optional claiming today.
Figures are climbing: 75, 80, 82 over its last three. A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, a mile today.
Worked 4F in :49.20 on Apr 30, 3rd of 17 at the distance. A 79 top number against a 81 par, so it fits the level.
Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now. Goes a mile after running 7 furlongs last time.
Raced in mid-pack early, 5th at the first call. Stretches out from 7 furlongs to a mile.
Finished 2nd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at MNR, beaten 1 length. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
Switches from dirt to turf. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile.
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. The Jul 13 work, 4F in :48.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.
Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 86 for the next best. 6th last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 8.
Moves up from $7,500 claiming to allowance optional claiming. Best recent figure is 63, well under the 81 par for this level.
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 ITALIAN SYMPHONY (2-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #9 ITALIAN SYMPHONY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.4% to their 16.6%).
- #10 LEGAL TITAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 12.5%).
- #12 ROYAL SALUTE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (11.9% to their 12.5%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #14 ONORE (10-1) — our fair 5.8% is above the morning line's 4.5%; supported by: 9-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #11 Bosley; pressure from #4 Replevin, #2 Overhaul; the shape helps #5 Semper Anticus, #6 Letmeknowbeforeugo, #14 Onore; and works against #2 Overhaul, #4 Replevin, #7 Datttsafancyfox.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#14 Onore (place saver: #10 Legal Titan)
#14 Onore rates the best; #10 Legal Titan the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#14 Onore · #10 Legal Titan
Two standouts with little between them — box #14 Onore and #10 Legal Titan both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#14 Onore · #10 Legal Titan · #4 Replevin
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#14 Onore / #10 Legal Titan · #4 Replevin · #9 Italian Symphony · #8 Some R Blessed / #10 Legal Titan · #4 Replevin · #9 Italian Symphony · #8 Some R Blessed / ALL or #10 Legal Titan · #4 Replevin · #9 Italian Symphony · #8 Some R Blessed
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
$2 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1
SUPERFECTA $.20 BOX $2 PICK 4 (RACES 1-4) $.50 WHEEL