MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 4
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $4,000
Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.81
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #14 Martinez Mojo (a closer, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 55 · 17 · 57. Backup is #2 Dangereuse at 2-1. Use #11 Tiz Laws Hall in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Still looking for the first win after 8 starts.
Has moved up each time out, 48 to 55 to 59. Drops from maiden claiming $5,000 to maiden claiming $4,000.
Figures have slipped: 56, 49, 48 over its last three. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 62, with 61 next best.
3rd of 13 at 3F on Jul 4, in :36.20. A longer trip: 4 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today.
0 for 6 at today's distance. Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start.
Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $4,000 today. Maiden through 7 starts.
Changes barns, from Brandon L Kulp to Donald T Blankenship. Tops the field on speed figures, a 62 against 61 for the next best.
Beaten 2½ lengths for 3rd in a 5-horse maiden claiming $6,000 race at FE. Was running in maiden claiming $6,000; today's maiden claiming $4,000 is an easier level on paper.
A big drop, maiden claiming $7,500 to maiden claiming $4,000, and worth asking why. Still looking for the first win after 20 starts.
Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Turns back in 8 days.
A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 67 par. Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 6 furlongs.
Picks up 10 pounds from its last start. Best recent figure is 21, well under the 67 par for this level.
Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call. Last out was 7th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $4,000 race at MNR.
4th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 7. Still looking for the first win after 8 starts.
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 DANGEREUSE (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #2 DANGEREUSE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 18.4%).
- #3 ROSIE ANN RULES — our #11 number, about right at the windows (12.2% to their 13.8%).
- #12 ADONCIA — our #4 number, about right at the windows (10.8% to their 11.0%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #14 MARTINEZ MOJO (10-1) — our fair 5.8% is above the morning line's 5.0%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Toronto Hoops; pressure from #4 Lil Braveheart, #13 Mo Breezy; the shape helps #6 Invidia Del Coco, #8 Prettyrunner, #14 Martinez Mojo; and works against #1 Toronto Hoops, #4 Lil Braveheart, #7 Well Rested.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Place / Show
#14 Martinez Mojo · #2 Dangereuse · #11 Tiz Laws Hall
Top trio is bunched — backing one to hit the board is sounder than a flat win bet.
Exacta — BOX
#14 Martinez Mojo · #2 Dangereuse · #11 Tiz Laws Hall
Top three are close — a 3-horse box covers the likely 1-2 in any order.
Trifecta — BOX
#14 Martinez Mojo · #2 Dangereuse · #11 Tiz Laws Hall
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#14 Martinez Mojo / #2 Dangereuse · #11 Tiz Laws Hall · #12 Adoncia · #8 Prettyrunner / #2 Dangereuse · #11 Tiz Laws Hall · #12 Adoncia · #8 Prettyrunner / ALL or #2 Dangereuse · #11 Tiz Laws Hall · #12 Adoncia · #8 Prettyrunner
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
2ND HALF DAILY DOUBLE $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1 SUPERFECTA $.20
BOX $2 PICK 5 (RACES 4-8) $.50 WHEEL