MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $4,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$9,000

Post

8:40 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

IQ top

#2 · 91

PANELVALUE · lean #2 CAPO LUIGI [MAX]see full panel →

Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.26

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Capo Luigi (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 72 · 60 · 64. Backup is #4 Winfromwithin at 10-1. Use #6 Grande Tortugon in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1WIN

2Capo Luigi

Jockey Brooke Bays 20% career · Trainer Yimi Alvarez 25% career

CLASS DROP

Drops from $5,000 claiming to $4,000 claiming. Last out was 5th, 3 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at BTP.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 27d ago

M/L6-1

IQ91

TierContender

StyleP

Last5th · 21d

2PLACE

4Winfromwithin

Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career ★ 11-for-48 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 27 · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career ★ 13-for-54 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 28

Also today · Jockey R2: Tall Girl 12-1, R3: Rebel Empire 20-1 · Trainer R1: Old Flag 6-1, R2: My Lucky Deia 10-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK0/5 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 65 to 48. 0 for 11 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on May 30; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

RECORD Jose A Leon from post 4 here: 5 wins, 21 top-3 in 67 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

IQ78

TierLive

StyleE

Last5th · 34d

3SHOW

6Grande Tortugon

Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Tara B Reffner 20% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Go Go Star 3-1, R6: She's A Saint 2-1, R8: Drewpower 20-1

Tara B Reffner takes over the training from Cally Ann Herrington. Class relief: $5,000 claiming last time, $4,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 149d ago

RECORD Bailey Weatherly from post 6 here: 18 wins, 52 top-3 in 153 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L3-1

IQ77

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last5th · 21d

4EXOTICS

7Printrack

Jockey Maikol Vilchez 19% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 27 · Trainer Juan R Aguirre 22% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Mr Hoover 10-1, R4: Seems To Whisper 12-1 · Trainer R6: Q Bond 8-1, R8: Gilligan 20-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, a 91 against 77 for the next best. New trainer: Marco Ccamaque had it last time, Juan R Aguirre now.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 20; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Maikol Vilchez from post 7 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 33 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L2-1

IQ71

TierContender

StyleE

Last2nd · 70d

5EXOTICS

10Try Try Again

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Fernando Alonso 19% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Tojo's Mojo 7-1, R2: Goldcrest 2-1, R3: Major Tom 15-1

180D+ LAYOFF

344 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 26d ago

M/L20-1

IQ37

TierLongshot

StyleP

Last5th · 344d

9Crafty Conquest

Jockey Alejandro Gomez 30% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Darren Henrich

Also today · Jockey R3: King Miano 7-1, R4: Miss M M 7-1

Figures have slipped: 74, 68, 66 over its last three. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 82).

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 11 (4F in :48.00), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Alejandro Gomez from post 9 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 19 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L9-1

IQ36

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 50d

5Bella's Prayer

Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 3-for-35 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Shane M Spiess 24% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Barleewon 20-1, R2: Little Lamb Chop 7-2, R3: Mean Tweets 9-1, R6: Market Of Stocks 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Corona Grande 7-1

Changes barns, from Tracey J Wisner to Shane M Spiess. Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 94d back)

RECORD Y Yaranga from post 5 here: 12 wins, 55 top-3 in 138 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

IQ35

TierLongshot

StyleP

Last6th · 42d

3Remys Gunsmoke

Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career ★ 9-for-40 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Gabe Shafer 14% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Hero's Man 2-1, R4: Romantic Jewel 20-1 · Trainer R3: Mean Tweets 9-1

Best recent figure is 71, well under the 79 par for this level. Turns back in 7 days.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 210d back)

RECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 17 starts here

RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 3 here: 21 wins, 79 top-3 in 192 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L7-1

IQ33

TierLongshot

StyleE

Last2nd · 7d

1Scratchoff

Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 8-for-65 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R1: El Ondeado 3-1, R1: Tizawhitefacecat 10-1, R2: Strand Of Gold 15-1, R3: Alvin 15-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Class Actor 3-1, this race: Road To Stardom 20-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 4th in an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR, beaten 5 lengths.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 11; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 1 here: 29 wins, 92 top-3 in 233 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

IQ29

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last4th · 62d

8Road To Stardom

Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Sicilian Style Two 20-1, R3: Class Actor 3-1 · Trainer R3: Class Actor 3-1, this race: Scratchoff 15-1

Back to 5½ furlongs off a a mile race. 6th last time, 12 lengths back, in a field of 10.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 135 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

M/L20-1

IQ28

TierOut

StyleP

Last6th · 9d

At a glance

Market favourite #7 PRINTRACK (2-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
#7 PRINTRACK — our #4 number, about right at the windows (24.4% to their 26.1%).
#6 GRANDE TORTUGON — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.2% to their 19.6%).
#2 CAPO LUIGI — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 13.5%, they've got 11.2%.

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: VALUE — #2 CAPO LUIGI — anchored 13.5% vs market 11.2% (+20.2% edge, LIVE band)

#2 CAPO LUIGI — we make it 13.5%, the morning line implies 11.2%. We're 20.2 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Remys Gunsmoke; pressure from #7 Printrack, #4 Winfromwithin; and works against #3 Remys Gunsmoke, #4 Winfromwithin, #7 Printrack.

Lead

3Remys Gunsmoke937Printrack934Winfromwithin81

Press

6Grande Tortugon901Scratchoff889Crafty Conquest82

Stalk

8Road To Stardom8610Try Try Again852Capo Luigi805Bella's Prayer64

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Remys Gunsmoke

Printrack

Grande Tortugon

Scratchoff

Road To Stardom

Try Try Again

Crafty Conquest

Winfromwithin

Capo Luigi

Bella's Prayer

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Road To Stardom

Bella's Prayer

Try Try Again

Crafty Conquest

Remys Gunsmoke

Winfromwithin

Scratchoff

Grande Tortugon

Printrack

Capo Luigi

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win

#2 Capo Luigi

Top of the field by a clear 13-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.

Exacta — KEY

#2 Capo Luigi OVER #4 Winfromwithin · #6 Grande Tortugon · #7 Printrack

Key #2 Capo Luigi on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.

Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL

#2 Capo Luigi / #4 Winfromwithin · #6 Grande Tortugon · #7 Printrack / #4 Winfromwithin · #6 Grande Tortugon · #7 Printrack · #10 Try Try Again

#2 Capo Luigi keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.

Superfecta — KEY

#2 Capo Luigi / #4 Winfromwithin · #6 Grande Tortugon · #7 Printrack · #10 Try Try Again / #4 Winfromwithin · #6 Grande Tortugon · #7 Printrack · #10 Try Try Again / ALL or #4 Winfromwithin · #6 Grande Tortugon · #7 Printrack · #10 Try Try Again

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

Bet types offered at this track →

$2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1 SUPERFECTA $.20 BOX $2 PICK 4 (RACES

5-8) $.50 WHEEL

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.