PENN NATIONAL · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $16,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$22,000

Post

8:10 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#2 · 21%

Claiming $16,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 95.64

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Letspumpthebrakes (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 68 · 58 · 60. Backup is #3 Hall Of Jazz at 4-1. Use #6 Carcharoth in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

2Letspumpthebrakes

Jockey D Cora 28% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Thomas Houghton 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: My Distant Drums 8-1, R3: Bold Ambition 5-1, R4: Neptune Beach 4-1 · Trainer R1: Stay Tuned 8-1, R1: My Distant Drums 8-1

CLASS UP

A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 68 against a 78 par.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Squeezed st; mild rally), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 33d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD D Cora from post 2 here: 25 wins, 92 top-3 in 174 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model21%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 19d

22ND

3Hall Of Jazz

Jockey Leonardo Corujo 22% career ★ 4-for-16 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 12 · Trainer Flint W Stites 26% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Supremely Wicked 2-1

CLASS UP3/6 board here

Has moved up each time out, 54 to 58 to 75. 3rd last time, 5 lengths back, in a field of 6.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d back

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Leonardo Corujo from post 3 here: 5 wins, 13 top-3 in 44 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model22%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 19d

33RD

6Carcharoth

Jockey Jatniel Ramos 34% career · Trainer Josue Arce 31% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Marchin Into April 6-1, R3: Broderick 5-1 · Trainer R2: Marchin Into April 6-1

Josue Arce takes over the training from Ruperto A Perez. Finished 4th in a 6-horse $12,500 claiming race at PRX, beaten 7 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 124 days ago

M/L6-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 29d

44TH

1Max Barley

Jockey Jordano Tunon 21% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Michael Zalalas 20% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

CLASS DROPJky 0/30 from post 1

Moves up from $5,000 claiming to optional claiming. Figures have slipped: 73, 68, 65 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 28 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Jordano Tunon has never won from post 1 here (8 top-3 in 30 rides) · 6% wins from all posts here

M/L3-1

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 14d

55TH

4Lino's Fire

Jockey Wilfredo Corujo 22% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Chris R Harting 15% career

Also today · Jockey R2: War Salute 3-1, R4: Atomico 4-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 79. 2nd of 13 at 3F on Sep 6, in :37.00.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 25d ago)

RECORD Wilfredo Corujo from post 4 here: 7 wins, 19 top-3 in 46 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L2-1

Model19%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 19d

5Lucky Double Zero

Jockey Angel R Quinones 14% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Sandee D Beattie 32% career

CLASS DROP

Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and optional claiming now. Winless in 10 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 55d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 LINO'S FIRE (2-1) — our number has it ranked #5.
#4 LINO'S FIRE — our #5 number, about right at the windows (24.6% to their 27.0%).
#1 MAX BARLEY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 20.2%).
#3 HALL OF JAZZ — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 16.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 LETSPUMPTHEBRAKES — we make it 15.7%, the morning line works out to 13.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Carcharoth; pressure from #4 Lino's Fire, #2 Letspumpthebrakes; the shape helps #1 Max Barley, #2 Letspumpthebrakes, #4 Lino's Fire; and works against #6 Carcharoth.

Lead

6Carcharoth81

Press

4Lino's Fire802Letspumpthebrakes78

Stalk

1Max Barley76

3Hall Of Jazz825Lucky Double Zero67

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Carcharoth

Lino's Fire

Letspumpthebrakes

Max Barley

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Hall Of Jazz

Lucky Double Zero

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