PENN NATIONAL · RACE 3
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races recently.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 95.64
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Arrow Speed (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 82 · 82 · 77. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Bold Ambition at 5-1. Use #1 Patton's Tizzy in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Comes in off a victory in a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at PEN. Carries 125 pounds, 4 more than last time.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 83. Last out was 2nd, ½ length behind the winner, in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at PEN.
Winner of a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at DEL last time. Figures are climbing: 68, 70, 81 over its last three.
A 79 top number against a 80 par, so it fits the level. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 85).
Was running in $6,250 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Trending the wrong way on speed, 80 to 61 to 54.
Drops from $7,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Figures are climbing: 67, 73, 75 over its last three.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 ARROW SPEED (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #6 ARROW SPEED — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.6% to their 27.1%).
- #3 MORNING THOUGHTS — our #6 number, about right at the windows (19.3% to their 20.4%).
- #1 PATTON'S TIZZY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.9% to their 16.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Patton's Tizzy; pressure from #6 Arrow Speed, #5 Bold Ambition; and works against #1 Patton's Tizzy, #5 Bold Ambition, #6 Arrow Speed.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
W-P-S / EXACTA / $0.50 TRIFECTA / $0.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE
$0.50 PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5) / $2.00 PICK 5 (RACES 3-7) / $0.20
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta