PENN NATIONAL · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$34,000

Post

5:45 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#7 · 25%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.66

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #7 Epic Blockage (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 70 · 62. Backup is #3 Little Snuff at 4-1. Use #6 Rosie's Rascal in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

7Epic Blockage

Jockey Angel R Rodriguez 34% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Charles Spina 27% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Arrow Speed 2-1, R4: Duck Duck Goose 8-5, R5: Show Time 8-5

★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. A 45-day gap since its last race.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 22; 2 works in 30d

RECORD Angel R Rodriguez from post 7 here: 31 wins, 73 top-3 in 124 rides · 25% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model25%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last5th · 45d

22ND

3Little Snuff

Jockey Yabriel O Ramos 34% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Bruce M Kravets 27% career ★ 13-for-42 on dirt this meet (31%), #1 of 12

Also today · Jockey R3: Midnight Onyx 8-1, R4: Tall Cotton 5-1 · Trainer R3: Midnight Onyx 8-1, R3: Bold Ambition 5-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 55 to 54 to 49. Last out was 8th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at DEL.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 74d back)

RECORD Yabriel O Ramos from post 3 here: 13 wins, 68 top-3 in 120 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last8th · 19d

33RD

6Rosie's Rascal

Jockey Jose A Batista 31% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cathal Lynch 36% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 16 (:48.40), a sign it is training forwardly. 5th last time, ½ length back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.40 on Oct 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

M/L5-2

Model21%

Fav?Yes

StyleE

Last5th · 28d

44TH

2Stay Tuned

Jockey Inoel Beato 31% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Thomas Houghton 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R7: I Can Explain 8-1 · Trainer this race: My Distant Drums 8-1, R6: Letspumpthebrakes 5-1

Finished 6th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at PEN, beaten 12 lengths. Best recent figure is 50, well under the 75 par for this level.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brush st; 4wd; lack bid), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 26 days ago

RECORD Inoel Beato from post 2 here: 24 wins, 82 top-3 in 156 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last6th · 14d

55TH

4My Distant Drums

Jockey D Cora 28% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Thomas Houghton 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Bold Ambition 5-1, R4: Neptune Beach 4-1, R6: Letspumpthebrakes 5-1 · Trainer this race: Stay Tuned 8-1, R6: Letspumpthebrakes 5-1

Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Wicked Strong and Silhoutte Island breeding. Debut for a trainer who is 6% with first-timers, over 62 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 8d back

RECORD D Cora from post 4 here: 31 wins, 82 top-3 in 187 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

1Te Amo Sergio

Jockey Jomar Torres 32% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Chelsea Sims Rabadan 17% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Magic Bay 7-2, R5: Track Phantom 5-2, R7: Holy Fit 7-2

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Raises its level, maiden claiming $25,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 43 against a 75 par.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (4F in :47.80), 3 works in 30d

RECORD Jomar Torres from post 1 here: 38 wins, 89 top-3 in 147 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 59d

5Lucky In Life

Jockey E Flores 32% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer David W Geist 14% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Torotoro 5-1, R7: Winning Play 5-1 · Trainer R7: Winning Play 5-1

A 43 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 32d back)

RECORD E Flores from post 5 here: 5 wins, 17 top-3 in 54 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last7th · 14d

At a glance

Market favourite #6 ROSIE'S RASCAL (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
#6 ROSIE'S RASCAL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.5% to their 23.0%).
#7 EPIC BLOCKAGE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 17.9%).
#3 LITTLE SNUFF — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 16.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Rosie's Rascal; the shape helps #3 Little Snuff, #7 Epic Blockage; and works against #1 Te Amo Sergio, #2 Stay Tuned, #4 My Distant Drums.

Lead

6Rosie's Rascal92

Press

none

Stalk

3Little Snuff947Epic Blockage85

none

No style yet

1Te Amo Sergio872Stay Tuned825Lucky In Life764My Distant Drums

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Little Snuff

Rosie's Rascal

Epic Blockage

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Little Snuff

Epic Blockage

Rosie's Rascal

Stay Tuned

Lucky In Life

Te Amo Sergio

Bet types

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