● Live race intelligence · code PEN

Penn National

Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Races
7
on the card
Feature
R5
Optional Claiming $40,000 · $39K
First post
5:45 PM
ET · race 1
Top model win %
38%
#6 Arrow Speed

● Track conditions today

Penn National — today's signals

Surface read

±0.96s MODERATE

Surface moves a moderate amount day to day — we apply the daily variant so figures stay comparable across the meet.

day-to-day swing · 101 race-days sampled

Weather

Unavailable

No forecast for this track right now — surface read defaults to the listed condition.

Carryover pool

None today

No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.

Do the model's percentages hold up?

Mostly

Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.

checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06

TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST

Best post #6 (14%) · Rail helps

Even by post — inside 12% / outside 10%. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 18,475 starts.

avg 12%12%112%211%312%413%514%612%7

Where the model is most sure

Three highest model win %.

The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.

R3 · 1 Mile Dirt

#6 Arrow Speed

Rodriguez Angel R · Kulp Brandon L

Model win %
38%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
2-1

R5 · 6 Furlongs Dirt

#5 Show Time

Rodriguez Angel R · Jacobson David

Model win %
30%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
8-5

R7 · 1 Mile Dirt

#1 Banco Di Sicilia

Sanchez Magglio · Montoya Marya

Model win %
29%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
2-1

Top connections on the card

Trainers + jockeys to watch.

Trainer leaderboard

  1. Kravets Bruce M2 top picks
  2. Spina Charles1 top picks
  3. Arce Josue1 top picks
  4. Shea Lydee1 top picks
  5. Kulp Brandon L1 top picks

Jockey leaderboard

  1. Rodriguez Angel R3 top picks
  2. Cora D2 top picks
  3. Ramos Yabriel O1 top picks
  4. Ramos Jatniel1 top picks
  5. Flores E1 top picks

Multi-race wagers

Today's sequences, leg by leg.

Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg, or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all. This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.

Pick 3Races 1–3 · $0.50 min
R1#7 Epic BlockageTop pick
R2#2 Marchin Into AprilTop pick
R3#6 Arrow SpeedTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 2–4 · $0.50 min
R2#2 Marchin Into AprilTop pick
R3#6 Arrow SpeedTop pick
R4#3 AtomicoTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 3–5 · $0.50 min
R3#6 Arrow SpeedTop pick
R4#3 AtomicoTop pick
R5#5 Show Time · #1 Great Richie M · #3 Paynted WarriorClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 3–7 · $2.00 min
R3#6 Arrow SpeedTop pick
R4#3 AtomicoTop pick
R5#5 Show Time · #1 Great Richie M · #3 Paynted WarriorClose: top 3
R6#2 Letspumpthebrakes · #3 Hall Of Jazz · #6 CarcharothClose: top 3
R7#1 Banco Di Sicilia · #7 I Can ExplainClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 4–6 · $0.50 min
R4#3 AtomicoTop pick
R5#5 Show Time · #1 Great Richie M · #3 Paynted WarriorClose: top 3
R6#2 Letspumpthebrakes · #3 Hall Of Jazz · #6 CarcharothClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 4–7 · $0.50 min
R4#3 AtomicoTop pick
R5#5 Show Time · #1 Great Richie M · #3 Paynted WarriorClose: top 3
R6#2 Letspumpthebrakes · #3 Hall Of Jazz · #6 CarcharothClose: top 3
R7#1 Banco Di Sicilia · #7 I Can ExplainClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 5–7 · $0.50 min
R5#5 Show Time · #1 Great Richie M · #3 Paynted WarriorClose: top 3
R6#2 Letspumpthebrakes · #3 Hall Of Jazz · #6 CarcharothClose: top 3
R7#1 Banco Di Sicilia · #7 I Can ExplainClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.

Today's races

Race-by-race with archetype.

Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.

R01

5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · Maiden Special Weight

Purse $34,000 · 7 entered · Post 5:45 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#7 Epic Blockage

Rodriguez Angel R / Spina Charles

M/L

7-2

Model 25% · favourite is #6

VIEW →
R02

5 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $5,000

Purse $13,000 · 6 entered · Post 6:14 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#2 Marchin Into April

Ramos Jatniel / Arce Josue

M/L

6-1

Model 22% · favourite is #3

VIEW →
R03

1 Mile Dirt · Claiming $5,000

Purse $18,000 · 6 entered · Post 6:43 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#6 Arrow Speed

Rodriguez Angel R / Kulp Brandon L

M/L

2-1

Model 38% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R04

1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt · Claiming $5,000

Purse $14,000 · 5 entered · Post 7:12 PM ET

TACTICAL / HONEST

Model's top pick

#3 Atomico

Corujo Wilfredo / Wolfe Bob Jr

M/L

4-1

Model 20% · favourite is #2

VIEW →
R05

6 Furlongs Dirt · Optional Claiming $40,000

Purse $39,000 · 5 entered · Post 7:41 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#5 Show Time

Rodriguez Angel R / Jacobson David

M/L

8-5

Model 30% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R06

1 Mile Dirt · Optional Claiming $16,000

Purse $22,000 · 6 entered · Post 8:10 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#2 Letspumpthebrakes

Cora D / Houghton Thomas

M/L

5-1

Model 21% · favourite is #4

VIEW →
R07

1 Mile Dirt · Optional Claiming $16,000

Purse $21,000 · 7 entered · Post 8:39 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#1 Banco Di Sicilia

Sanchez Magglio / Montoya Marya

M/L

2-1

Model 29% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
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