PENN NATIONAL · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

5 runners

Purse

$14,000

Post

7:12 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Model top pick

#3 · 20%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 99.55

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Atomico (a closer, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 57 · 65 · 66. Backup is #1 Bernie Goes Boom at 5-2. Use #2 Duck Duck Goose in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Tactical / Honest: Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

1TOP PICK

3Atomico

Jockey Wilfredo Corujo 22% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Bob Jr Wolfe 22% career

Also today · Jockey R2: War Salute 3-1, R6: Lino's Fire 2-1

CLASS DROP

Trending the wrong way on speed, 66 to 65 to 57. 0 for 13 at today's distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 28d ago

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Wilfredo Corujo from post 3 here: 4 wins, 16 top-3 in 37 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model20%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last6th · 14d

22ND

1Bernie Goes Boom

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 3-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter 24% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Secret Oaks 6-1

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last out was 3rd, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at PEN.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 63d back)

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 1 here: 8 wins, 20 top-3 in 30 rides · 28% wins from all posts here

M/L5-2

Model23%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 14d

33RD

2Duck Duck Goose

Jockey Angel R Rodriguez 34% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Brandon L Kulp 42% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Epic Blockage 7-2, R3: Arrow Speed 2-1, R5: Show Time 8-5 · Trainer R3: Arrow Speed 2-1

CLASS DROP

Finished 2nd in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at PEN, beaten 2 lengths. Best recent figure of 72 sits right around the 78 par.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 19d ago

RECORD Angel R Rodriguez from post 2 here: 59 wins, 153 top-3 in 230 rides · 25% wins from all posts here

M/L8-5

Model27%

Fav?Yes

StyleE

Last2nd · 14d

44TH

4Neptune Beach

Jockey D Cora 28% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Timothy C Kreiser 38% career ★ 4-for-16 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 12

Also today · Jockey R1: My Distant Drums 8-1, R3: Bold Ambition 5-1, R6: Letspumpthebrakes 5-1 · Trainer R5: Paynted Warrior 4-1, R7: Secret Oaks 6-1

Tops the field on speed figures, a 78 against 76 for the next best. Figures have slipped: 78, 70, 49 over its last three.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 25d back

RECORD D Cora from post 4 here: 31 wins, 82 top-3 in 187 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last7th · 14d

55TH

5Tall Cotton

Jockey Yabriel O Ramos 34% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Michelle Castillo 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Little Snuff 4-1, R3: Midnight Onyx 8-1

CLASS DROP

Drops from $8,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 58d back)

RECORD Yabriel O Ramos from post 5 here: 21 wins, 55 top-3 in 104 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 21d

At a glance

Market favourite #2 DUCK DUCK GOOSE (8-5) — our number has it ranked #3.
#2 DUCK DUCK GOOSE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (29.3% to their 31.1%).
#1 BERNIE GOES BOOM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.5% to their 23.1%).
#3 ATOMICO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 16.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #2 Duck Duck Goose; pressure from #5 Tall Cotton, #1 Bernie Goes Boom.

Lead

2Duck Duck Goose865Tall Cotton84

Press

1Bernie Goes Boom80

Stalk

none

4Neptune Beach763Atomico70

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Duck Duck Goose

Tall Cotton

Bernie Goes Boom

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Atomico

Neptune Beach

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

W-P-S / EXACTA / $0.50 TRIFECTA / $0.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

$0.50 PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / $0.50 PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

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Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.