PENN NATIONAL · RACE 2
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 56.38
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #2 Marchin Into April (a closer, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 61 · 55 · 63. Backup is #4 Torotoro at 5-1. Use #3 Supremely Wicked in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Changes barns, from Ruperto A Perez to Josue Arce. 5th last time, 15 lengths back, in a field of 6.
Tops the field on speed figures, a 71 against 69 for the next best. Back to 5 furlongs off a 6 furlongs race.
Class relief: $10,000 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today. Best recent figure is 65, well under the 75 par for this level.
Finished 6th in a 6-horse optional claiming race at PEN, beaten 7¼ lengths. Cuts back from 6 furlongs to 5 furlongs.
Was running in $8,000 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. A 66 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.
2nd of 7 at 4F on May 27, in :48.40. Last out was 2nd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at PEN.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 SUPREMELY WICKED (2-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #3 SUPREMELY WICKED — our #3 number, about right at the windows (25.5% to their 27.2%).
- #6 WAR SALUTE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 20.4%).
- #1 MAGIC BAY — our #5 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 18.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- #2 MARCHIN INTO APRIL — we make it 14.6%, the morning line works out to 11.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Supremely Wicked; pressure from #4 Torotoro, #1 Magic Bay; the shape helps #1 Magic Bay, #4 Torotoro, #5 The Piranha; and works against #3 Supremely Wicked.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
W-P-S / EXACTA / $0.50 TRIFECTA / $0.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE
$0.50 PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta