PENN NATIONAL · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $16,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$21,000

Post

8:39 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#1 · 29%

Claiming $16,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 95.64

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Banco Di Sicilia (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 71 · 80 · 64. Backup is #7 I Can Explain at 8-1. Use #2 Rosie Outlook in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

1Banco Di Sicilia

Jockey Magglio Sanchez 37% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Marya Montoya 31% career ★ hot

Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 74 for the next best. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 84 days ago

M/L2-1

Model29%

Fav?Yes

StyleE

Last4th · 22d

22ND

7I Can Explain

Jockey Inoel Beato 31% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Cody Beattie 32% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Stay Tuned 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Cody Beattie takes over the training from Riquelvis Grullon. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.40 on Oct 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Inoel Beato from post 7 here: 19 wins, 49 top-3 in 116 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last7th · 39d

33RD

2Rosie Outlook

Jockey Francisco Martinez 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Felix L Flores-Coba 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Finished 3rd in a 7-horse optional claiming race at PRX, beaten 3½ lengths. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 46d back)

M/L6-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 22d

44TH

3Holy Fit

Jockey Jomar Torres 32% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Mark V Salvaggio 30% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Te Amo Sergio 5-1, R2: Magic Bay 7-2, R5: Track Phantom 5-2

CLASS DROP

Jomar Torres takes over from Inoel Beato in the saddle. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Angled 5wd; willingly last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 18d back

RECORD Jomar Torres from post 3 here: 22 wins, 85 top-3 in 172 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 40d

55TH

5Winning Play

Jockey E Flores 32% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer David W Geist 14% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Lucky In Life 6-1, R2: Torotoro 5-1 · Trainer R1: Lucky In Life 6-1

5/9 board here

Figures have slipped: 65, 64, 53 over its last three. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 26d back)

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD E Flores from post 5 here: 5 wins, 17 top-3 in 54 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last6th · 12d

6Secret Oaks

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 3-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Timothy C Kreiser 38% career ★ 4-for-16 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 12 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Bernie Goes Boom 5-2 · Trainer R4: Neptune Beach 4-1, R5: Paynted Warrior 4-1

Class relief: optional claiming last time, optional claiming today. Last out was 5th, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at LRL.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ins mv 1/2; falter; easd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 26d ago

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 6 here: 10 wins, 20 top-3 in 25 rides · 28% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 18d

4Smokin Hot Wife

Jockey Joezer Rangel 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jacinto Solis 32% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

3/3 board here

Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to a mile. Best recent figure is 63, well under the 76 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 25d ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 15d

At a glance

Market favourite #1 BANCO DI SICILIA (2-1) — our number agrees.
#1 BANCO DI SICILIA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 27.1%).
#3 HOLY FIT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 18.1%).
#5 WINNING PLAY — our #5 number, about right at the windows (12.8% to their 13.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 I CAN EXPLAIN (8-1) — our fair 11.0% is above the morning line's 9.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Banco Di Sicilia; pressure from #7 I Can Explain, #5 Winning Play; the shape helps #3 Holy Fit, #4 Smokin Hot Wife, #5 Winning Play; and works against #1 Banco Di Sicilia, #7 I Can Explain.

Lead

1Banco Di Sicilia877I Can Explain78

Press

5Winning Play924Smokin Hot Wife823Holy Fit69

Stalk

none

2Rosie Outlook696Secret Oaks69

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Winning Play

Banco Di Sicilia

Smokin Hot Wife

I Can Explain

Holy Fit

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Secret Oaks

Rosie Outlook

Bet types

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