PENN NATIONAL · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $40,000

Field

5 runners

Purse

$39,000

Post

7:41 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#5 · 30%

Claiming $40,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.68

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Show Time (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 87 · 94 · 91. Backup is #1 Great Richie M at 5-1. Use #3 Paynted Warrior in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

5Show Time

Jockey Angel R Rodriguez 34% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer David Jacobson 32% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Epic Blockage 7-2, R3: Arrow Speed 2-1, R4: Duck Duck Goose 8-5 · Trainer this race: Track Phantom 5-2

Owns the highest recent figure here at 94. 4 wins from 10 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 21d back

RECORD Angel R Rodriguez from post 5 here: 51 wins, 122 top-3 in 213 rides · 25% wins from all posts here

M/L8-5

Model30%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last5th · 32d

22ND

1Great Richie M

Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Paulina Sinnefia 24% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #2 of 12

CLASS UPWON LAST5/5 board here

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at PEN at 8.4-1. Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Reared st; 7wd move. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 28d ago)

RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (2 wins)

M/L5-1

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last1st · 20d

33RD

3Paynted Warrior

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Timothy C Kreiser 38% career ★ 4-for-16 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 12 ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R4: Neptune Beach 4-1, R7: Secret Oaks 6-1

CLASS UP

Changes barns, from Jose Antonio Vargas to Timothy C Kreiser. Was 4th of 5 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 81d ago

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 3 here: 10 wins, 16 top-3 in 28 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 21d

44TH

4Track Phantom

Jockey Jomar Torres 32% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer David Jacobson 32% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Te Amo Sergio 5-1, R2: Magic Bay 7-2, R7: Holy Fit 7-2 · Trainer this race: Show Time 8-5

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Figures have slipped: 87, 80, 63 over its last three. A big drop, optional claiming to allowance optional claiming, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 28 (3F in :37.40), 4 works in 30d

RECORD Jomar Torres from post 4 here: 28 wins, 85 top-3 in 166 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

M/L5-2

Model22%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last10th · 11d

55TH

2Ripped

Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 3-for-11 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 12 · Trainer Robert Mosco 31% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Drops from optional claiming to allowance optional claiming. An 86 top number against a 88 par, so it fits the level.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Wide trip; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 74d ago

RECORD Dexter Haddock from post 2 here: 3 wins, 9 top-3 in 16 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last6th · 14d

At a glance

Market favourite #5 SHOW TIME (8-5) — our number agrees.
#5 SHOW TIME — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.2% to their 32.0%).
#4 TRACK PHANTOM — our #4 number, about right at the windows (22.8% to their 23.7%).
#3 PAYNTED WARRIOR — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.1% to their 16.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 GREAT RICHIE M — we make it 16.0%, the morning line works out to 13.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Track Phantom; pressure from #5 Show Time, #3 Paynted Warrior; the shape helps #2 Ripped, #3 Paynted Warrior, #5 Show Time; and works against #4 Track Phantom.

Lead

4Track Phantom93

Press

5Show Time873Paynted Warrior84

Stalk

2Ripped84

1Great Richie M82

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Track Phantom

Show Time

Ripped

Paynted Warrior

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Great Richie M

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

W-P-S / EXACTA / $0.50 TRIFECTA / $0.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

$0.50 PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.