R5 Penn National · Optional Claiming $25,000

7:41 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $26,000 · 5 runners7:41 PM · 6f Dirt · 5 runners

Upcoming $26K · Optional Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Cheese N Crackers▼A. Cruz · K. DeiterCruz · DeiterB74 61 65▲▲+8@trip 745-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best74 61 65@trip 74B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 803

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 61 65

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter 24% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer R7: False Witness 3-1

WON LAST

Won last out in a 7-horse optional claiming race at DEL. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 67d back)

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 1 here: 6 wins, 19 top-3 in 30 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	DEL	6f D	OC 32k	Won/7 by 3½	74	23-1	b L	Off duel;6-w upr;surgd
9/5	TIM	4f D	OC 25k	3rd/5 -5L	61	13-1	b L	Bmp st;sent bw;angl in
7/25	DEL	5½f D	OC 25k	5th/6 -4L	65	46-1	b L	4wd turn; weakened;

2Techstar▲L. Corujo · T. KreiserCorujo · KreiserA71 82 71▼-6@trip 828-5Fair 5-228%▼ Down -671 82 71@trip 82A▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 82 71
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Leonardo Corujo 22% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Timothy C Kreiser 38% career ★ 6-for-24 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 15
Also today · Jockey R4: Sense Of Wonder 5-2 · Trainer R2: Didn't It Rain 5-2
LASIX 1STWON LAST
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 82, with 81 next best. Stretches out from 4 furlongs to 6 furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 22; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Leonardo Corujo from post 2 here: 3 wins, 12 top-3 in 39 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 TIM 4f D OC 25k Won/5 71 0.2-1 b Sent clear 3/8;drv ins
8/5 PEN 6f D MCL 25kc Won/8 82 0.2-1 b Pace; pulled away
7/21 DEL 5½f D MSW 5th/8 -3½L 71 1.7-1 b Rail; weakened;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	TIM	4f D	OC 25k	Won/5	71	0.2-1	b	Sent clear 3/8;drv ins
8/5	PEN	6f D	MCL 25kc	Won/8	82	0.2-1	b	Pace; pulled away
7/21	DEL	5½f D	MSW	5th/8 -3½L	71	1.7-1	b	Rail; weakened;

3Persian★A. Bowman · H. WynerBowman · WynerA60 76 81▼▼-16@trip 855-1Fair 5-230%▼▼ Big drop -1660 76 81@trip 85A★ Best at the trip 851

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 76 81

★ Best at the trip 85

Jockey Adam Bowman 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Harold Wyner 24% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer this race: American Select 4-1

Was running in allowance; today's optional claiming is an easier level on paper. Figures have slipped: 81, 76, 60 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 16d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	6½f D	Alw n1x	8th/9 -11L	60	27-1	L	Urged turn; faded
9/19	PRX	7f D	OC 16k n1x	6th/13 -4L	76	36-1	L	Clear; hooked; tired
8/18	PRX	7f D	Clm 20k bc	2nd/11 -1L	81	3.0-1	L	Clear; hooked; gamely

4American SelectJ. Ramos · H. WynerRamos · WynerB63 71 63▼▼-94-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -963 71 63B

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 63 71 63

Jockey Jatniel Ramos 34% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Harold Wyner 24% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Party 6-1 · Trainer this race: Persian 5-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 82. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 30d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	PRX	1m D	OC 16k	5th/8 -10L	63	9.4-1	L	Severely crowded start
10/8	DEL	1 1/16 T	OC 16k	6th/12 -14L	71	26-1	L	Passed tiring rivals
9/15	PRX	1m D	OC 16k	6th/6 -7L	63	2.0-1	L	Wide; faded final turn

5Half a DeckM. Chuan · J. LawrenceChuan · LawrenceA64 81 80▼▼-13@trip 815-2Fair 5-117%▼▼ Big drop -1364 81 80@trip 81A
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 81 80
Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 13 · Trainer James Lee Lawrence 18% career 2-for-3 on dirt this meet
★ FASTEST WORK
Martin Chuan takes over from Jamie Rodriguez in the saddle. Posted the fastest 5F work of the morning on Oct 23, in 1:01.20.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP 4wd; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 23; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Martin Chuan from post 5 here: 6 wins, 13 top-3 in 21 rides · 28% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 DEL 6f D OC 25k 5th/8 -6L 64 1.3-1 b L 4wd; faltered
9/17 DEL 6f D OC 25k 2nd/8 by hd 81 4.3-1 b L Dueled; no match late
8/7 PEN 6f D OC 16k Won/6 80 1.6-1 b L Set pace; widened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	DEL	6f D	OC 25k	5th/8 -6L	64	1.3-1	b L	4wd; faltered
9/17	DEL	6f D	OC 25k	2nd/8 by hd	81	4.3-1	b L	Dueled; no match late
8/7	PEN	6f D	OC 16k	Won/6	80	1.6-1	b L	Set pace; widened

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PENN NATIONAL · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $25,000

Field

5 runners

Purse

$26,000

Post

7:41 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 30%

Claiming $25,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.68

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Persian (early speed, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 60 · 76 · 81. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #2 Techstar at 8-5. Use #1 Cheese N Crackers in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 TECHSTAR (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#2 TECHSTAR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (30.8% to their 32.0%).
#5 HALF A DECK — our #5 number, about right at the windows (23.2% to their 23.7%).
#3 PERSIAN — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.8%, they've got 13.8%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 PERSIAN — we make it 17.8%, the morning line works out to 13.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Techstar; pressure from #5 Half A Deck, #3 Persian; and works against #2 Techstar, #3 Persian, #4 American Select.

Lead

2Techstar935Half A Deck893Persian864American Select69

Press

none

Stalk

1Cheese N Crackers92

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Techstar

Cheese N Crackers

Half A Deck

Persian

American Select

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

American Select

Half A Deck

Persian

Cheese N Crackers

Techstar

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Bet types

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