R7 Penn National · Maiden Claiming $10,000

8:39 PM ET · 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt · $16,000 · 6 runners8:39 PM · 8.3f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $16K · Maiden Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Cashpoint▼M. Rojas · W. MeisterRojas · MeisterB38 43 50▼-6@trip 415-1Fair 8-111%▼ Down -638 43 50@trip 41B▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 72

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 41 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 38 43 50

▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey Martina Rojas 30% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer William S Meister 17% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

CLASS UP

A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today. Best recent figure is 50, well under the 72 par for this level.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 89 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Martina Rojas from post 1 here: 3 wins, 14 top-3 in 54 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PEN	6f D	MCL 10k	3rd/4 -8½L	38	10-1	b L	Pace;came back for 3rd
8/27	DEL	5½f D	MCL 7k	5th/6 -7L	43	7.7-1	b L	Even effort; outrun
8/13	DEL	6f D	MCL 7k	6th/9 -5¼L	50	45-1	b L	3wd; no rally

2False Witness▼E. Villasmil · K. DeiterVillasmil · DeiterA58 57 61▲+3@trip 573-1Fair 6-115%▲ Up +358 57 61@trip 57A▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 72

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 57 61

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey Edgar Villasmil 16% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter 24% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer R5: Cheese N Crackers 5-1

CLASS UP

Class relief: maiden claiming $12,500 last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 61 against a 72 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

TROUBLED TRIP 6w1/8; mild interest last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 146d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	CT	7f D	MCL 12k	4th/7 -1¼L	58	2.2-1	b L	6w1/8;mild interest
9/5	DEL	1 1/16 D	MCL 7k	3rd/5 -4½L	57	6.9-1	b L	Bumped start; weakened
8/22	DEL	1m D	MCL 7k	4th/6 -2¾L	61	64-1	b L	Swung 5wd upper

3Ravel▼J. Torres · E. RathmanTorres · RathmanA59 545-1Fair 6-115%—59 54A▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 72
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 59 54
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 72
Jockey Jomar Torres 32% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Elisha Rathman
Also today · Jockey R2: Capricorn Belle 6-1, R3: Rar 6-1 · Trainer R3: Rar 6-1
CLASS DROP
Last out was 5th, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden claiming $16,000 race at PEN. Was running in maiden claiming $16,000; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Shuffled 1/2; ran on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 35d ago
RECORD Jomar Torres from post 3 here: 22 wins, 85 top-3 in 172 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 PEN 6f D MCL 16k 5th/8 -4½L 59 6.9-1 b L Shuffled 1/2; ran on
12/11 PEN 6f D MCL 25k 7th/9 -9L 54 8.1-1 Rated inside;retreated
4Monica▼M. Inirio · F. StitesInirio · StitesB51 51 44▲+44-1Fair 9-218%▲ Up +4 · career best51 51 44B▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 722
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · Last 3 figs 51 51 44
▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 72
Jockey Maicol J Inirio 24% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Flint W Stites 26% career 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Red Betty 6-1 · Trainer R3: Sunshine Johnny 5-1
0/3 board here
Beaten 12 lengths for 7th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $16,000 race at PEN. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Jul 4; 1 work in 30d
RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
RECORD Maicol J Inirio from post 4 here: 4 wins, 25 top-3 in 95 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 PEN 6f D MCL 16k 7th/8 -12L 51 15-1 b L Asked 8wd; no rally
8/28 PEN 6f D MCL 16k 5th/6 -6L 51 3.5-1 b L 2-w; no threat
8/5 PEN 6f D MCL 25k 7th/8 -10L 44 19-1 b L Ins duel; drop bk turn
5Eddie's Promise▼D. Cora · K. HarigeorgiouCora · HarigeorgiouB59 48 52▲▲+14↕8-1Fair 6-113%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best59 48 52 ↕B▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 723
Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–59 · Last 3 figs 59 48 52
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 72
Jockey D Cora 28% career 6-for-31 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Konstan Harigeorgiou 16% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Wonderfulvenezuela 5-1 · Trainer R6: Wonderfulvenezuela 5-1
0/4 board here
A 59 is the high figure lately, short of the 72 par. Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 6wd bid; mild rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 41d back)
RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here
RECORD D Cora from post 5 here: 30 wins, 93 top-3 in 189 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 PEN 6f D MCL 16k 4th/8 -4½L 59 26-1 L 6wd bid; mild rally
9/3 PEN 6f D MSW 4th/6 -6½L 48 25-1 L 3wd btw;outpaced uppr
8/18 PEN 6f D fsMdSpWt 4th/5 -4L 52 42-1 L 2w;bid btw;prss;wknd
6Manon▼★E. Flores · D. GeistFlores · GeistA52 59 49▼-4@trip 662-1Fair 5-228%▼ Down -452 59 49@trip 66A▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72★ Best at the trip 661
Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 59 49
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72★ Best at the trip 66
Jockey E Flores 32% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer David W Geist 14% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
★ FASTEST WORK
Still looking for the first win after 7 starts. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 66, with 61 next best.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 28 (5F in 1:01.40), 0 works in 30d
RECORD E Flores from post 6 here: 7 wins, 21 top-3 in 54 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 PEN 1m D MCL 10k 4th/6 -8L 52 3.7-1 L 4p1st;3p2nd;no kick
9/23 PID 1m D MCL 7k 4th/6 -7L 59 14-1 L Split upper;no imapct
8/20 PEN 1 1/16 D MSW 5th/9 -11L 49 32-1 L Inside; idled 3-1/2

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	PEN	6f D	MCL 16k	5th/8 -4½L	59	6.9-1	b L	Shuffled 1/2; ran on
12/11	PEN	6f D	MCL 25k	7th/9 -9L	54	8.1-1		Rated inside;retreated

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	PEN	6f D	MCL 16k	7th/8 -12L	51	15-1	b L	Asked 8wd; no rally
8/28	PEN	6f D	MCL 16k	5th/6 -6L	51	3.5-1	b L	2-w; no threat
8/5	PEN	6f D	MCL 25k	7th/8 -10L	44	19-1	b L	Ins duel; drop bk turn

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	PEN	6f D	MCL 16k	4th/8 -4½L	59	26-1	L	6wd bid; mild rally
9/3	PEN	6f D	MSW	4th/6 -6½L	48	25-1	L	3wd btw;outpaced uppr
8/18	PEN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/5 -4L	52	42-1	L	2w;bid btw;prss;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	PEN	1m D	MCL 10k	4th/6 -8L	52	3.7-1	L	4p1st;3p2nd;no kick
9/23	PID	1m D	MCL 7k	4th/6 -7L	59	14-1	L	Split upper;no imapct
8/20	PEN	1 1/16 D	MSW	5th/9 -11L	49	32-1	L	Inside; idled 3-1/2

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PENN NATIONAL · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $10,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$16,000

Post

8:39 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#6 · 28%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 99.55

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Manon (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 52 · 59 · 49. Backup is #4 Monica at 4-1. Use #5 Eddie's Promise in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 MANON (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 MANON — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.1% to their 27.1%).
#2 FALSE WITNESS — our #6 number, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 20.4%).
#4 MONICA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.9% to their 16.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Cashpoint; pressure from #4 Monica, #5 Eddie's Promise; and works against #1 Cashpoint, #2 False Witness, #3 Ravel.

Lead

1Cashpoint884Monica835Eddie's Promise812False Witness78

Press

6Manon78

Stalk

none

No style yet

3Ravel92

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Cashpoint

Monica

Eddie's Promise

False Witness

Manon

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ravel

Monica

Eddie's Promise

False Witness

Manon

Cashpoint

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