1Sandy GirlLSN. Herman · J. NicholsonHerman · NicholsonB66 61 71►@trip 758-1Fair 10-110%
► Steady66 61 71@trip 75BLSCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 61 71
LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
5/7 board hereDrops from $16,000 claiming to unknown. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 71 days agoRECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/20 PRX 6f D Clm 16k n4l 5th/8 -6L 66 21-1 b L Pressed winner; faded 10/2 MED 5f T Alw n1x 7th/9 -7¼L 61 59-1 b L Off rail; no threat 9/2 PEN 5f D OC 16k Won/4 71 3.8-1 b L Vied btw;cmd3/8;held 2Didn't It Rain▼▲A. Rodriguez · T. KreiserRodriguez · KreiserA66 82 72▼▼-8@trip 765-2Fair 3-125%
▼▼ Big drop -866 82 72@trip 76A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (66 vs 82)▲ Rider upgrade (31% vs 26%) cutting back to a sprint1Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 82 72
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (66 vs 82)▲ Rider upgrade (31% vs 26%) cutting back to a sprintJockey Angel R Rodriguez 34% career 7-for-38 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Timothy C Kreiser 38% career ★ 6-for-24 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 15 ★ hot★ FASTEST WORK4/7 board hereTops the field on speed figures, a 92 against 81 for the next best. Back to 6 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 1)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 27 days agoRECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD Angel R Rodriguez from post 2 here: 59 wins, 153 top-3 in 230 rides · 25% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 PEN 1 1/16 D OC 40k b 4th/5 -8½L 66 12-1 L Ins-2wd;pressrd 3/8 8/12 PEN 1m D Alw n1x Won/4 82 0.9-1 L Drew off;held clear 7/3 PEN 1m D Alw n1x 3rd/4 -2L 72 0.9-1 L Inside;wknd;lost 2nd 3Savor ItF. Martinez · L. StMartinez · StB47 71 63▼▼-22@trip 712-1Fair 3-126%
▼▼ Big drop -2247 71 63@trip 71B2Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 71 63
LASIX 1ST9th last time, 26 lengths back, in a field of 9. Runs for $17,000 today after a $1,000,000 race last time.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 21; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 PRX 1 1/16 D Cotilln G1 9th/9 -26L 47 123-1 b Asked 1/2; no response 9/1 PRX 6f D OC 75k n2l 2nd/6 -6½L 71 5.6-1 b L Angled out; rallied 8/8 CT 7f D Alw n3x 5th/6 -10L 63 2.6-1 b L Press5w3/8;gaveway 4Miss Ida BE. Rosario · J. Bacallao-VegaRosario · Bacallao-VegaB65 78 66▼▼-9@trip 817-2Fair 6-114%
▼▼ Big drop -965 78 66@trip 81BCard model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 78 66
Jockey Emanuel Rosario 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Juan Carlos Bacallao-Vega 0-for-1 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORKHas won 4 of 10 going today's distance. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 6, in :48.00.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 54d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 DEL 6f D OC 20k 4th/6 -5L 65 12-1 b L Stalked inside; tired 9/24 DEL 6f D Clm 10k b Won/4 78 3.9-1 b L Stalk;2p;drew off 9/11 DEL 6f D Clm 12k 6th/7 -4L 66 3.6-1 b L Vied; tired; gave way 5Capricorn Belle▲▼J. Torres · C. LynchTorres · LynchA68 73 74▼-5≡@trip 736-1Fair 8-111%
▼ Down -568 73 74 ≡@trip 73A▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (68 vs 73)Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 68–74 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 73 74
▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (68 vs 73)Jockey Jomar Torres 32% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Cathal Lynch 36% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFigures have slipped: 74, 73, 68 over its last three. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 97).
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 6d backRECORD Jomar Torres from post 5 here: 30 wins, 63 top-3 in 134 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/17 DEL 6f D OC 25k 6th/8 -3L 68 10-1 b L Led to turn; gave way 7/10 DEL 6f D OC 25k Won/5 73 11-1 b L Dueled inside foe 7/4 DEL 5½f D MCL 25k Won/7 74 1.8-1 b L Outside bid; driving 6PartyJ. Ramos · B. Perkins Jr.Ramos · Perkins Jr.A73 75 81▼-3@trip 816-1Fair 6-114%
▼ Down -373 75 81@trip 81A3Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 75 81
180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFreshened 306 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Was running in $40,000 claiming; today's unknown is an easier level on paper.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Bump brk; chased 2wd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 12/28 LRL 7f D Clm 40k b 6th/7 -7½L 73 9.9-1 L Bump brk;chased 2wd 9/13 DEL 1 1/16 T frAlw ---s 4th/7 -6L 75 11-1 L Unhurried;stdy gain 8/9 DEL 6f D OC 40k n2x 5th/7 -2¾L 81 5.6-1 L Off pace; no impact
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
PENN NATIONAL · RACE 2
UPCOMINGRHP 40-55
Unknown, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.68
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #2 Didn't It Rain (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 66 · 82 · 72. Backup is #3 Savor It at 2-1. Use #6 Party in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 SAVOR IT (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #3 SAVOR IT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.0% to their 26.9%).
- #2 DIDN'T IT RAIN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.9% to their 23.1%).
- #4 MISS IDA B — our #6 number, about right at the windows (16.1% to their 17.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Sandy Girl; pressure from #2 Didn't It Rain, #5 Capricorn Belle; the shape helps #3 Savor It, #4 Miss Ida B, #5 Capricorn Belle; and works against #1 Sandy Girl, #2 Didn't It Rain.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
W-P-S / EXACTA / $0.50 TRIFECTA / $0.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE
$0.50 PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta