1Red Betty▼M. Inirio · G. AlbrightInirio · AlbrightB58 58 57►≡6-1Fair 8-111%
► Steady58 58 57 ≡B▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 57–58 · Last 3 figs 58 58 57
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Maicol J Inirio 24% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer George R Albright 26% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meetCLASS UPClass relief: $10,000 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Asked 6wd; no rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 0 works in 30d, last 34d agoRECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 8 starts hereRECORD Maicol J Inirio from post 1 here: 14 wins, 43 top-3 in 125 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 PEN 6f D Clm 10k n2l 5th/5 -7½L 58 26-1 b L Asked 6wd; no rally 10/2 CT 6½f D Clm 5k n2l 5th/8 -5L 58 51-1 b L Save ground;mild gain 8/14 PEN 6f D Clm 5k n2l 3rd/7 -7½L 57 52-1 b L Traffic 1/4;up for 3rd 2Ladsfirstlove▲Y. Ortiz · J. ColeOrtiz · ColeA51 71 61▼-53-1Fair 7-222%
▼ Down -551 71 61A▲ Lone speed on early pace2Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 51 71 61
▲ Lone speed on early paceCLASS DROPTops the field on speed figures, a 71 against 68 for the next best. Finished 4th in a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at LRL, beaten 9½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 36d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LRL 1m D Clm 7k n2l 4th/6 -9½L 51 4.3-1 Led 2w;shift in;wknd 9/4 TIM 1m D MCL 12k Won/5 71 15-1 3w-clr;ins;left lead 8/28 TIM 1 1/16 D MCL 5k DNF — 1.6-1 Stumbled; lost jockey 3FleeP. Lopez · M. SimoneLopez · SimoneA41 61 68▼▼-24↕2-1Fair 7-222%
▼▼ Big drop -2441 61 68 ↕ACard model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -24 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–68 · Last 3 figs 41 61 68
Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Michael V Simone 32% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hotFigures have slipped: 68, 61, 41 over its last three. Last out was 11th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in an 11-horse $8,000 claiming race at DEL.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 122d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 DEL 5½f D Clm 8k n2l 11th/11 -12L 41 12-1 b L Inside; gave way 10/2 DEL 1m D Clm 8k n2l 6th/10 -2½L 61 3.9-1 b L Ins upper;needed more 9/25 DEL 6f D Clm 8k n2l 3rd/7 -3L 68 4.8-1 b L Chase;2p;kept on 4KazillionJ. Betancourt · C. MartinBetancourt · MartinA58 54 64▼-54-1Fair 4-120%
▼ Down -558 54 64A1Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 58 54 64
Owns the highest recent figure here at 71. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 5½ furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 76 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 DEL 5½f D Clm 8k n2l 8th/11 -13L 58 45-1 L 5-w; never fired 9/23 DEL 5½f D MCL 8k Won/8 by 3 54 2.9-1 L Split; rallied in time 8/29 DEL -8f T MCL 20k 6th/9 -9¼L 64 20-1 L Angled out; no bid 5Wonderfulvenezuela▼★D. Cora · K. HarigeorgiouCora · HarigeorgiouB35 42 56▼▼-10↕@trip 655-1Fair 5-116%
▼▼ Big drop -1035 42 56 ↕@trip 65B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 73★ Best at the trip 653Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 35–56 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 35 42 56
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 73★ Best at the trip 65Jockey D Cora 28% career 6-for-31 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Konstan Harigeorgiou 16% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)CLASS DROPKonstan Harigeorgiou takes over the training from Trevor Gallimore. Beaten 13 lengths for 3rd in a 3-horse $5,000 claiming race at PEN.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 21d agoRECORD D Cora from post 5 here: 30 wins, 93 top-3 in 189 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 PEN 1m D Clm 5k n2l 3rd/3 -13L 35 8.3-1 b L Svd gnd;no bid 9/29 PRX 1 1/16 D Clm 7k n2l 10th/10 -22L 42 89-1 b L Stopped abruptly 8/31 PRX 6½f D Clm 7k b 5th/7 -12L 56 64-1 b L Caught fading rivals 6Zippy Do Da Day▼E. Rosario · J. RamirezRosario · RamirezB53 56 51►≡@trip 536-1Fair 10-110%
► Steady53 56 51 ≡@trip 53B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 51–57 · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 56 51
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Emanuel Rosario 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose A Ramirez 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meetWas running in $8,000 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Carries 118 pounds, 4 less than last time.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 55d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 DEL 1 1/16 D Clm 8k n2l 4th/5 -9L 53 35-1 b L 2p-ins;cued3/8;flatten 10/2 DEL 1m D Clm 8k n2l 9th/10 -7¼L 56 83-1 b L Off slowly;no menace 9/12 DEL 5½f D Clm 7k n2l 12th/13 -12L 51 55-1 b L Bumped start; outrun
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #2, #3, #6.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
PENN NATIONAL · RACE 6
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 99.55
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #4 Kazillion (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 58 · 54 · 64. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #2 Ladsfirstlove at 3-1. Use #5 Wonderfulvenezuela in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 FLEE (2-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #3 FLEE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (24.8% to their 27.0%).
- #2 LADSFIRSTLOVE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 20.2%).
- #4 KAZILLION — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 16.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Ladsfirstlove; pressure from #3 Flee, #6 Zippy Do Da Day; the shape helps #4 Kazillion, #6 Zippy Do Da Day; and works against #2 Ladsfirstlove, #3 Flee.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
W-P-S / EXACTA / $0.50 TRIFECTA / $0.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta