PARX RACING · RACE 2
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races recently.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #5 Sofster (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 68 · 72 · 66. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Thelastbulletsmine at 8-5. Use #2 Mona L in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Changes barns, from Silvino Ramirez to Carl C Jones. Finished 2nd in a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at PRX, beaten 5½ lengths.
Class relief: $7,500 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call.
Back after 119 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. New trainer: Michael V Pino had it last time, J Guadalupe Guerrero now.
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at PRX. Has moved up each time out, 58 to 67 to 75.
Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 78 for the next best. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.
Junior W Nicholson takes over the training from Trevor Gallimore. Drops from $7,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 THELASTBULLETSMINE (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #6 THELASTBULLETSMINE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.8% to their 29.0%).
- #5 SOFSTER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.0% to their 25.2%).
- #1 GOLDEN DANCER — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.6% to their 13.7%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Golden Philly; pressure from #2 Mona L, #1 Golden Dancer; the shape helps #1 Golden Dancer, #2 Mona L, #4 Lady Arwen; and works against #3 Golden Philly.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#5 Sofster
Top of the field by a clear 35-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#5 Sofster OVER #6 Thelastbulletsmine · #2 Mona L · #1 Golden Dancer
Key #5 Sofster on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#5 Sofster / #6 Thelastbulletsmine · #2 Mona L · #1 Golden Dancer / #6 Thelastbulletsmine · #2 Mona L · #1 Golden Dancer · #4 Lady Arwen
#5 Sofster keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (2 - 5) / EXACTA
50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA