PARX RACING · RACE 7
UPCOMINGClaiming $40,000
Claiming $40,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #4 Charbonnay (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 79 · 73 · 87. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Big Boys Answer at 12-1. Use #6 Windsor Gold in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Best recent figure of 87 sits right around the 90 par. Drops from optional claiming to $40,000 claiming.
Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Owns the highest recent figure here at 91.
Has moved up each time out, 68 to 77 to 81. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.
Won last out in a 10-horse $25,000 claiming race at PRX. Moves up from $25,000 claiming to $40,000 claiming.
Michael E Jr Jones takes over the training from Jamie Ness. Raises its level, $25,000 claiming last time and $40,000 claiming now.
A step up in company: $25,000 claiming before, $40,000 claiming today. An 83 top number against a 90 par, so it fits the level.
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 AMY'S MUSIC (2-1) — our number has it ranked #5.
- #2 AMY'S MUSIC — our #5 number, about right at the windows (25.8% to their 27.9%).
- #6 WINDSOR GOLD — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 20.9%).
- #4 CHARBONNAY — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.5%, they've got 14.0%.
Value read
- #4 CHARBONNAY — we make it 16.5%, the morning line implies 14.0%. We're 17.7 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
- Longshot value: #5 BIG BOYS ANSWER (12-1) — our fair 8.2% is above the morning line's 6.4%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #3 Altobelli; pressure from #4 Charbonnay.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a balanced pace makes it a trip race — moderate spreads. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#4 Charbonnay
Top of the field by a clear 9-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#4 Charbonnay OVER #5 Big Boys Answer · #6 Windsor Gold · #1 Runandscore
Key #4 Charbonnay on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#4 Charbonnay / #5 Big Boys Answer · #6 Windsor Gold · #1 Runandscore / #5 Big Boys Answer · #6 Windsor Gold · #1 Runandscore · #2 Amy's Music
#4 Charbonnay keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9)
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA /10 CENT SUPERFECTA