PARX RACING · RACE 5
UPCOMINGClaiming $16,000
Claiming $16,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 98.7
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Royal 'n Rando (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 83 · 67 · 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Dreaming Of Gerry at 5-2. Use #1 Elusive Target in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.
Freshened 209 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Tops the field on speed figures, a 101 against 87 for the next best.
Won last out in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at PRX. Raises its level, $7,500 claiming last time and $16,000 claiming now.
Changes barns, from Esteban Padilla to Stephen Hamilton. A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $16,000 claiming today.
New trainer: Ruperto A Perez had it last time, Josue Arce now. Has won 5 of 11 going today's distance.
Fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 6 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly. 2nd of 17 at 4F on Oct 19, in :47.80.
Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse $7,500 claiming race at PRX. Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $16,000 claiming.
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 GUAPONESS (2-1) — our number has it ranked #6.
- #5 GUAPONESS — our #6 number, about right at the windows (23.7% to their 24.8%).
- #4 DREAMING OF GERRY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 21.3%).
- #6 ROYAL 'N RANDO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.7% to their 18.6%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Melt With You; pressure from #3 Docsgotallthecandy, #7 Preach It Warrior; the shape helps #4 Dreaming Of Gerry, #6 Royal 'n Rando; and works against #2 Melt With You, #3 Docsgotallthecandy, #7 Preach It Warrior.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#6 Royal 'n Rando
Top of the field by a clear 9-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#6 Royal 'n Rando OVER #4 Dreaming Of Gerry · #1 Elusive Target · #2 Melt With You
Key #6 Royal 'n Rando on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#6 Royal 'n Rando / #4 Dreaming Of Gerry · #1 Elusive Target · #2 Melt With You / #4 Dreaming Of Gerry · #1 Elusive Target · #2 Melt With You · #7 Preach It Warrior
#6 Royal 'n Rando keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA
10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PHILLY BIG 5