R1 Santa Anita Park · Maiden Claiming $50,000

4:00 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Turf · $35,000 · 6 runners4:00 PM · 6f Turf · 6 runners

Upcoming $35K · Maiden Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Selected▼W. Orantes · A. MathisOrantes · MathisB649-5Fair 4-120%—64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Welfin R Orantes 27% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer Andy Mathis 38% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Club Mayo 20-1, R8: Meridian Mae 20-1 · Trainer R8: Kool Kitten 15-1
180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Returns from a 434-day break. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/22 DMR 5½f D fsMd50000 4th/9 -4½L 64 11-1 b Brk in;ins;angled str
2Rumpus LadyLSF. Monroy · I. TamayoMonroy · Tamayo?20-1Fair 20-14%—Debut?LS
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Francisco Monroy 24% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Isidro Tamayo 32% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Rumpus Cat and Regal Lady breeding. This barn has 74 first-time starters on record and wins 15% of them.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 5d ago
Last three races
First start. By Rumpus Cat out of Regal Lady (Bedford Falls)
Trainer I. Tamayo: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 27% in the money (74 starts)
Jockey F. Monroy in turf: 0 wins from 20 (0%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 SA 5f 1:03.40 handily 11/11
10/17 SA 4f :49.40 handily 55/70 from gate
10/5 SA 4f :50.00 handily 48/57 from gate
9/27 SA 5f 1:03.00 handily 60/70
9/20 SA 4f :49.40 handily 63/97

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	DMR	5½f D	fsMd50000	4th/9 -4½L	64	11-1	b	Brk in;ins;angled str

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	SA	5f	1:03.40	handily	11/11
10/17	SA	4f	:49.40	handily	55/70	from gate
10/5	SA	4f	:50.00	handily	48/57	from gate
9/27	SA	5f	1:03.00	handily	60/70
9/20	SA	4f	:49.40	handily	63/97

3Tropical Rain DayA. Ayuso · V. GarciaAyuso · GarciaA75 78 71▲+3@trip 665-2Fair 4-120%▲ Up +375 78 71@trip 66A3

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 78 71

Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 2-for-42 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Victor L Garcia 32% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Mega Moon 9-2, R4: Captivator 3-2, R5: Opus Uno 8-1, R6: Icecream Ontheside 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R8: La Silenciosa 10-1

180D+ LAYOFFCLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Back after 510 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 4d back

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/7	SA	6f D	fsMd50000	2nd/8	75	4.4-1	L	Ins-3w;led;grudgingly
3/17	SA	5½f D	MCL 32k	2nd/7 -2L	78	1.3-1	L	2wd;rallied;outclosed
2/22	SA	6f D	fsMd50000	3rd/8 -4L	71	5.7-1	L	Stmbld;chsd3w;held3rd

4Sissy GirlT. Pereira · P. AguirrePereira · AguirreA55 67 70▼▼-17↕@trip 802-1Fair 4-121%▼▼ Big drop -1755 67 70 ↕@trip 80A

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 67 70

Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career 2-for-26 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Paul Aguirre 22% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Mighty Kai 6-1, R3: Cardiff Crack 3-1, R4: Mr. Disrespectful 12-1, R6: Clubhouse Rose 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Mighty Kai 6-1

Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 78 for the next best. 6th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 6.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbld st; 3-4 wide. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 5d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	SA	6f D	fsMd50000	6th/6 -10L	55	5.4-1	b L	Stumbld st;3-4 wide
9/3	DMR	1 1/16 T	sMd50000	9th/9 -4½L	67	8.8-1	L	Speed;stalk1/2;faded
8/1	DMR	5f T	fsMdSpWt	8th/8 -3L	70	8.4-1	L	2-3wide; no rally

5Awesome OlgaA. Aguilar · J. SierraAguilar · SierraB67 77 27▲+7↕@trip 4412-1Fair 5-117%▲ Up +767 77 27 ↕@trip 44B1

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 27–77 · Best fig at today's trip 44 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 77 27

Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 1-for-13 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Javier Jose Sierra 23% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Majestic Palisades 15-1, R4: Gun Runner Charlie 15-1, R6: Estrella Esmeral 30-1, R8: Cara Rose 20-1 +1 more

0/4 board here

Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Maiden through 6 starts.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 13 days ago

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	SA	1m T	fsMd50000	6th/8 -2½L	67	48-1	L	Aim 2wide; weakened
9/25	SA	6f D	fsMd50000	4th/6 -5½L	77	31-1	L	2-3wd;ins; no threat
8/23	DMR	6½f D	MCL 16k	10th/10 -17L	27	42-1	b L	Climb brfly;chsd;tired

6Grape Juice TooM. Americano · M. McDonaldAmericano · McDonaldA75 66 66▲▲+95-1Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best75 66 66A2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 75 66 66

Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career · Trainer Melanie W McDonald 19% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Geezer 10-1, R5: Chapter One 30-1, R6: Jade's Most Wanted 15-1, R8: Christa McAuliffe 6-1 +1 more

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Beaten 7 lengths for 5th in a 6-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at SA.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 10d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	SA	6f D	fsMd50000	5th/6 -7L	75	27-1	L	Ins;chkd 3/8; no bid
9/13	LRC	6f D	fsMd50000	3rd/6 -9½L	66	6.9-1	L	2-3w;angld;gained3rd
7/5	LRC	6½f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/12 -5L	66	56-1	L	2-3wide; mild rally

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #5, #6.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $50,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$35,000

Post

4:00 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#5 · 17%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 66.6

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Awesome Olga (early speed, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 67 · 77 · 27. Backup is #6 Grape Juice Too at 5-1. Use #3 Tropical Rain Day in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 SELECTED (9-5) — our number has it ranked #6.
#1 SELECTED — our #6 number, about right at the windows (25.3% to their 28.2%).
#4 SISSY GIRL — our #4 number, about right at the windows (24.2% to their 26.3%).
#3 TROPICAL RAIN DAY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 22.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#6 GRAPE JUICE TOO — we make it 15.5%, the morning line works out to 13.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 AWESOME OLGA (12-1) — our fair 9.3% is above the morning line's 6.1%; supported by: lone early speed — controls the pace uncontested

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #6 Grape Juice Too; pressure from #5 Awesome Olga.

Lead

6Grape Juice Too915Awesome Olga83

Press

none

Stalk

3Tropical Rain Day87

4Sissy Girl91

No style yet

1Selected812Rumpus Lady

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Grape Juice Too

Tropical Rain Day

Awesome Olga

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sissy Girl

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Bet types

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WIN ($2) / PLACE ($2) / SHOW ($2) / EXACTA ($1) / TRIFECTA ($1)

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