R3 Santa Anita Park · Optional Claiming $20,000

5:13 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $67,000 · 8 runners5:13 PM · 1m Turf · 8 runners

Upcoming $67K · Optional Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Sogno Di Vino▲T. Baze · G. StuteBaze · StuteA86 89 86►@trip 854-1Fair 6-115%► Steady86 89 86@trip 85A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 89 86

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84

Jockey T C Baze 27% career 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Gary Stute 20% career 1-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Speedy Wilson 3-1, R5: Henry Adams 5-1, R6: Main Impact 3-1, R7: Lino's Angel 20-1 +1 more

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse $25,000 claiming race at SA. Gary Stute takes over the training from Peter Miller.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 12d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	SA	1⅛m T	Clm 25k n2lc	Won/6	86	0.7-1	b L	Ins;bid2w1/4;duel str
8/22	DMR	1 1/16 T	sOC20000n1x	9th/12 -2½L	89	41-1	b L	Stalked inside;weaknd
7/31	DMR	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k n2l	2nd/9 -1L	86	12-1	b L	2wd;ins;no final kick

2Typhoon Tommy▼A. Bautista · E. AlvarezBautista · AlvarezC74 71 50▲▲+9↕@trip 7830-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +974 71 50 ↕@trip 78C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–74 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 71 50

▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Rejoiceful 15-1 · Trainer R7: Lino's Angel 20-1

CLASS DROP3/6 board here

A step up in company: $6,250 claiming before, allowance optional claiming today. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Shuffld early; 3w; nobid. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/6 -10L	74	7.1-1	b L	Shuffld early;3w;nobid
8/23	DMR	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	6th/9 -7¼L	71	53-1	b L	Press outsd;stalk;fade
8/1	DMR	1m D	Clm 12k n2l	8th/9 -10L	50	18-1	b L	Chsd ins;wknd2nd;empty

3Geezer▲M. Americano · G. VallejoAmericano · VallejoB88 92 85►≡10-1Fair 7-113%► Steady88 92 85 ≡B▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 841

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–92 · Last 3 figs 88 92 85

▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 84

Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career · Trainer Genaro Vallejo 24% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Grape Juice Too 5-1, R5: Chapter One 30-1, R6: Jade's Most Wanted 15-1, R8: Christa McAuliffe 6-1 +1 more

2/4 board here

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Figure of 92 on the record sits above the 84 par.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 5d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	SA	1m D	sOC20000n1x	2nd/7 -3½L	88	16-1	L	2wd;inside;2nd best
9/20	LRC	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	Won/6 by nk	92	14-1	L	Checkd1/2;edge away
9/12	LRC	5½f D	OC 25k	4th/7 -6¼L	85	16-1	L	3wd; turn;angle in 1/8

4Cullen JJ. Valdivia Jr. · R. BaltasValdivia Jr. · BaltasC80 79 93▼-4@trip 805-1Fair 8-112%▼ Down -480 79 93@trip 80C

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 79 93

Jockey J Jr Valdivia 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Richard Baltas 31% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Trainer R9: Virevolte 15-1

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS4/5 board here

Freshened 293 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. A 93 in its last five clears the 84 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Pace ins; duel; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 12d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
1/10	SA	1m T	sOC20000n1x	4th/11 -2L	80	7.8-1	b L	Pace ins;duel;faltered
11/16	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	4th/7 -2½L	79	9.3-1	b L	Up close3-4w;weakened
10/4	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	Won/11 by 1½	93	4.8-1	b L	Bmpd early;2w;dug in

5Miss Jo's CurlinJ. Spencer · B. GalvinSpencer · GalvinA82 88 91▼-3@trip 827-2Fair 6-115%▼ Down -382 88 91@trip 82A

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 88 91

Jockey J P Spencer 14% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Brendan W Galvin 20% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R9: Federation 5-2

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS4/6 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 91 to 88 to 82. Beaten a head for 2nd in an 11-horse optional claiming race at SA.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m T	sOC20000n1x	2nd/11 by hd	82	9.8-1	L	Scrap rail 3/8;held 2d
9/4	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	5th/12 -6½L	88	14-1	L	Ins;tipped out;mildly
8/8	DMR	6f D	sOC20000n1x	4th/8 -3L	91	12-1	L	Chased inside;flatten

6Jimmy Blue JeansV. Espinoza · L. BarocioEspinoza · BarocioB77 74 81▲▲+8↕@trip 895-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +877 74 81 ↕@trip 89B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–81 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 74 81

Jockey V Espinoza 35% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Librado Barocio 29% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Clouseau 4-5, R6: Zayda At The Spa 3-1, R9: Magic Time 6-1 · Trainer R2: Majestic Palisades 15-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS5/9 board here

New trainer: Paul Aguirre had it last time, Librado Barocio now. Moves up from allowance to allowance optional claiming.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 22 (3F in :34.60), 3 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	SA	1⅛m T	Alw s	3rd/7 -½L	77	6.6-1	L	Led inside; saved 3rd
8/7	DMR	1m T	Alw s	9th/10 -5L	74	6.3-1	L	Vie3deep;track2-3w;wkn
7/19	DMR	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	7th/12 -3L	81	26-1	L	Gained ins2nd;flatten

7Unpretentious▲E. Payeras · C. TreecePayeras · TreeceB85 81 97►@trip 816-1Fair 6-114%► Steady85 81 97@trip 81B▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 842

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 81 97

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84

Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Charles S Treece 24% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

CLASS DROP4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, a 97 against 94 for the next best. Won last out in a 7-horse optional claiming race at LRC.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LRC	1m D	sOC20000n1x	Won/7 by 1½	85	5.7-1	L	4-3w;2-4w;steady rally
8/30	DMR	1m T	OC 50k	6th/12 -6¾L	81	47-1	L	Crowded st;ins;tip out
8/7	DMR	6f D	Clm 32k b	Won/5	97	15-1	L	Tight brfly;bid3w;clr

8Cardiff Crack★T. Pereira · B. McLeanPereira · McLeanA81 94 90▼-7@trip 903-1Fair 9-219%▼ Down -781 94 90@trip 90A★ Best at the trip 903

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 94 90

★ Best at the trip 90

Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career 2-for-26 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Bill McLean 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Sissy Girl 2-1, R2: Mighty Kai 6-1, R4: Mr. Disrespectful 12-1, R6: Clubhouse Rose 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R8: Famous Forza 15-1

Has run 94 against a 84 par for the class. Last out was 4th, 4¾ lengths behind the winner, in an 11-horse optional claiming race at SA.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 4dp 3/8; 5w upr; imprvd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 13d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m T	sOC20000n1x	4th/11 -4¾L	81	6.9-1	b L	4dp 3/8;5w upr;imprvd
8/22	DMR	1 1/16 T	sOC20000n1x	3rd/12 -3¾L	94	21-1	b L	2w;3-4w;clsd;stdy late
7/25	DMR	1m T	sOC20000n1x	2nd/8 -2L	90	30-1	b L	Ins;3-2w;bid3deep late

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $20,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$67,000

Post

5:13 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 13%

Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.69

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Geezer (a presser/stalker, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 88 · 92 · 85. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Unpretentious at 6-1. Use #8 Cardiff Crack in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 CARDIFF CRACK (3-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#8 CARDIFF CRACK — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.7%).
#5 MISS JO'S CURLIN — our #5 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 17.5%).
#1 SOGNO DI VINO — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.0% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 GEEZER (10-1) — our fair 8.4% is above the morning line's 7.1%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Miss Jo's Curlin; pressure from #2 Typhoon Tommy, #4 Cullen J; the shape helps #1 Sogno Di Vino, #3 Geezer, #4 Cullen J; and works against #2 Typhoon Tommy, #5 Miss Jo's Curlin.

Lead

5Miss Jo's Curlin882Typhoon Tommy

Press

4Cullen J897Unpretentious796Jimmy Blue Jeans74

Stalk

1Sogno Di Vino843Geezer83

8Cardiff Crack66

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Cullen J

Miss Jo's Curlin

Sogno Di Vino

Geezer

Unpretentious

Jimmy Blue Jeans

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Cardiff Crack

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