R2 Santa Anita Park · Optional Claiming $32,000

4:40 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $37,000 · 7 runners4:40 PM · 1m Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $37K · Optional Claiming $32,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Mighty Kai▲T. Pereira · P. AguirrePereira · AguirreB86 87 92►≡@trip 926-1Fair 7-113%► Steady86 87 92 ≡@trip 92B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 832

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–92 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 87 92

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 83

Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Paul Aguirre 22% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Sissy Girl 2-1, R3: Cardiff Crack 3-1, R4: Mr. Disrespectful 12-1, R6: Clubhouse Rose 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Sissy Girl 2-1

WON LAST8/8 board here

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse $20,000 claiming race at SA at 2.9-1. Raises its level, $20,000 claiming last time and optional claiming now.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 12 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 8 starts here (2 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	SA	1m D	Clm 20k c	Won/6 by ½	86	2.9-1	L	2w;angled4w2nd;dug in
8/23	DMR	1m D	Clm 20k c	4th/7 -7½L	87	3.1-1	L	2wd;2-4wd;weakened
7/17	DMR	1m D	Clm 16k c	Won/9 by 1½	92	4.9-1	L	Ins;3w;rally;cleared

2Mega MoonA. Ayuso · S. KnappAyuso · KnappA82 91 93▼▼-11@trip 939-2Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -1182 91 93@trip 93A3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 91 93

Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 5-for-39 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Tropical Rain Day 5-2, R4: Captivator 3-2, R5: Opus Uno 8-1, R6: Icecream Ontheside 5-2 +3 more · Trainer this race: Joint Venture 6-1, R5: Henry Adams 5-1, R6: Zayda At The Spa 3-1

CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS6/8 board here

Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile. Has run 94 against a 83 par for the class.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	LRC	5½f D	OC 25k	6th/7 -6L	82	3.0-1	L	Btwn;4wd; no threat
8/29	DMR	6f D	OC 50k n1x	4th/10 -6L	91	11-1	L	Tracked 3wd; no rally
8/13	DMR	1m D	Clm 32k c	Won/6	93	1.7-1	L	Bobbled;inside;tip out

3Joint Venture▲D. Van · S. KnappVan · KnappA85 81 97►@trip 976-1Fair 8-110%► Steady85 81 97@trip 97A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 83

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 97 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 81 97

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 83

Jockey Dyke Drayden Van 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Proof He Goes 1-1, R8: Famous Forza 15-1, R9: Mackinaw 5-1 · Trainer this race: Mega Moon 9-2, R5: Henry Adams 5-1, R6: Zayda At The Spa 3-1

4/4 board here

Changes barns, from Steve M Sherman to Steve Knapp. A step up in company: $20,000 claiming before, optional claiming today.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 12d ago

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (1 win)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	SA	1m D	Clm 20k c	2nd/6	85	1.8-1	b L	Ins;bid3deep1/4;outkck
9/7	DMR	6½f D	Alw s	6th/11 -8½L	81	14-1	L	3-4w;pass tired rivals
8/23	DMR	1m D	Clm 20k c	2nd/7 -½L	97	2.0-1	L	Bid upper;turned away

4Rodrigoknows▲K. Frey · H. PalmaFrey · PalmaB84 91 83►@trip 916-1Fair 8-111%► Steady84 91 83@trip 91B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 91 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 91 83

▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83

Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career ★ 8-for-31 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 23 · Trainer Hector O Palma 33% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Throwthefirstpunch 20-1, R6: Shemakesmemad 10-1, R7: My Girl Mia 15-1, R8: Jasmina 6-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Double Neat 20-1

WON LAST4/5 board here

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	Won/9 by hd	84	9.2-1	L	Bpd st;2-3wd;led;held
8/20	DMR	1m D	sOC20000n1xv	Won/9 by ½	91	9.5-1	L	Ins;bid outsd1/4;best
7/17	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	5th/8 -5½L	83	7.7-1	L	2-3wide; no rally

5Majestic Palisades▲A. Aguilar · L. BarocioAguilar · BarocioB84 83 82►≡@trip 9015-1Fair 15-16%► Steady84 83 82 ≡@trip 90B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 83 82

▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83

Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Librado Barocio 29% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Awesome Olga 12-1, R4: Gun Runner Charlie 15-1, R6: Estrella Esmeral 30-1, R8: Cara Rose 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Jimmy Blue Jeans 5-1

6/9 board here

Moves up from $20,000 claiming to optional claiming. Librado Barocio takes over the training from Paul Aguirre.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	SA	1m D	Clm 20k	3rd/6 -2L	84	9.4-1	b L	Vie btw;inside;held3rd
9/19	LRC	1m D	sOC20000n1x	3rd/7 -2½L	83	18-1	b L	3-2w;ins-2w;willingly
8/20	DMR	1m D	sOC20000n1x	7th/9 -7L	82	3.8-1	b L	4-3w;weakened2nd;tired

6Clouseau▲★V. Espinoza · G. PapaprodromouEspinoza · PapaprodromouA89 101 95▼▼-8@trip 1014-5Fair 3-239%▼▼ Big drop -889 101 95@trip 101A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 83★ Best at the trip 1011

Card model 39% · Fair odds 3-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 101 95

▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 83★ Best at the trip 101

Jockey V Espinoza 35% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer George Papaprodromou 34% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Jimmy Blue Jeans 5-1, R6: Zayda At The Spa 3-1, R9: Magic Time 6-1 · Trainer R5: Proof He Goes 1-1

4/5 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 101. A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 5d back

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SA	6½f D	OC 50k n1x	3rd/6 -6½L	89	2.8-1	L	3wd;btwn;ins;held 3rd
8/22	DMR	1m D	OC 50k n1x	2nd/6 -½L	101	4.1-1	L	Outside;gamely;denied
6/12	SA	6f D	OC 32k	2nd/7 -1L	95	2.4-1	L	Bp st;rushd;chs;re-bid

7Double Neat▲▼LSA. Lezcano · H. PalmaLezcano · PalmaC83 89 51▲▲+11↕@trip 5120-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +1183 89 51 ↕@trip 51C▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 89)LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–89 · Best fig at today's trip 51 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 89 51

▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 89)LS

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Abel Lezcano 33% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Hector O Palma 33% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Triple Diamonds 6-1, R7: Street Swindler 5-2, R9: Klaebo 30-1 · Trainer this race: Rodrigoknows 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Switches from turf to dirt. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 21 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	SA	1m T	Clm 32k	6th/8 -4¾L	83	11-1	L	2wd;2-3wd;angled out
8/14	DMR	1m T	Clm 32k c	8th/9 -1½L	89	6.2-1	L	Led ins;vied;weakened
7/18	MTH	1m D	OC 20k n1x	5th/5 -14L	51	2.5-1	L	3w early; ins; faded

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $32,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$37,000

Post

4:40 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#6 · 39%

Claiming $32,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.4

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Clouseau (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-5). Recent figures: 89 · 101 · 95. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Mighty Kai at 6-1. Use #2 Mega Moon in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 CLOUSEAU (4-5) — our number agrees.
#6 CLOUSEAU — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (40.0% to their 43.5%).
#2 MEGA MOON — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.1% to their 14.2%).
#1 MIGHTY KAI — our #2 number, about right at the windows (12.1% to their 11.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 DOUBLE NEAT (20-1) — our fair 4.5% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: top barn (33%) + jockey (33%) at 20-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #2 Mega Moon; pressure from #6 Clouseau, #4 Rodrigoknows.

Lead

none

Press

2Mega Moon936Clouseau924Rodrigoknows845Majestic Palisades807Double Neat763Joint Venture75

Stalk

1Mighty Kai71

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mega Moon

Clouseau

Rodrigoknows

Majestic Palisades

Double Neat

Joint Venture

Mighty Kai

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Double Neat

Mighty Kai

Joint Venture

Majestic Palisades

Mega Moon

Rodrigoknows

Clouseau

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

WIN ($2) / PLACE ($2) / SHOW ($2) / EXACTA ($1) / TRIFECTA ($1)

SUPERFECTA ($.10) / ROLLINGDOUBLE ($2) / ROLLING PICK 3 ($1)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.