R8 Santa Anita Park · Optional Claiming $50,000

7:45 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $67,000 · 11 runners7:45 PM · 6f Dirt · 11 runners

Upcoming $67K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #10 Christa Mcauliffe (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 87 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Cara RoseLSA. Aguilar · S. MiyadiAguilar · MiyadiC75 65 42▲▲+17↕20-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +1775 65 42 ↕CLS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–75 · Last 3 figs 75 65 42

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Steven Miyadi 28% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #2 of 22
    Also today · Jockey R1: Awesome Olga 12-1, R2: Majestic Palisades 15-1, R4: Gun Runner Charlie 15-1, R6: Estrella Esmeral 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Icecream Ontheside 5-2, R6: Shemakesmemad 10-1, this race: Christa McAuliffe 6-1
    180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST3/3 board here

    Back after 364 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Purse drops from $175,000 to $67,000 against its last start.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 12d ago
    RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/31DMR7f DfsGldStJuvFB175k6th/11 -9L7533-1Came 4w; evenly
    10/3SA6½f DfsOC50000n1x3rd/6 -2½L655.9-1Chased 3wd; denied 2nd
    9/6DMR1m TJuvFlTrf Stk11th/11 -12L4237-1Outside;tired 2nd;easd
  2. 2Factor P▲A. Ayuso · A. GarciaAyuso · GarciaA87 71 85▲▲+13↕@trip 859-2Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best87 71 85 ↕@trip 85A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 851

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–87 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 71 85

    ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 85
    Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 5-for-39 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Antonio C Garcia 32% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Tropical Rain Day 5-2, R2: Mega Moon 9-2, R4: Captivator 3-2, R5: Opus Uno 8-1 +3 more
    CLASS UPWON LAST

    Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse optional claiming race at SA. Best recent figure of 87 sits right around the 85 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 13 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2SA6½f DfsOC50000n1xWon/108770-1b LOutsd;open up;lasted
    9/13LRC5½f DfsOC20000n1x4th/5 -1L714.3-1b LBp st;bid5/16;faltered
    8/7DMR6f DfsMdSpWtWon/7851.2-1b LCleard3/8;drftd midstr
  3. 3Taking a Joy Ride▲H. Berrios · C. LewisBerrios · LewisA87 73 79▲▲+87-2Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best87 73 79A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 85

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 73 79

    ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 85
    Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Craig A Lewis 26% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Ahrens 2-1, R7: Delightful Laura 7-5
    CLASS UP4/5 board here

    Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 10 at the first call. Beaten 3½ lengths for 2nd in a 10-horse optional claiming race at SA.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2SA6½f DfsOC50000n1x2nd/10 -3½L877.3-1b LIns;split foes3/16;mss
    9/7DMR5f TfsOC20000n1x7th/12 -3L7310-1b LUp close3deep;evenly
    7/24DMR7f DfsFleetTrtB150k4th/9 -7½L7916-1bBpd9/16;3wd;no rally
  4. 4Famous Forza▲D. Van · B. McLeanVan · McLeanC85 87 78▲+6@trip 7815-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +685 87 78@trip 78C▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 853

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 87 78

    ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85
    Jockey Dyke Drayden Van 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Bill McLean 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Joint Venture 6-1, R5: Proof He Goes 1-1, R9: Mackinaw 5-1 · Trainer R3: Cardiff Crack 3-1
    CLASS DROP3/5 board here

    Switches from turf to dirt. An 87 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10SA6f TfsOC20000n1x4th/9 -1½L853.1-1LStalked ins;rally btwn
    9/7DMR5f TOC 50kWon/9 by 2½8712-1L2wd;angled out;surged
    8/15DMR6f DOC 50k2nd/6 -3¼L784.9-1LIns;angled4-5w;tip out
  5. 5Redheaded RebaT. Pereira · D. DunhamPereira · DunhamA84 69 83▲+4@trip 847-2Fair 6-115%▲ Up +484 69 83@trip 84A

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 69 83

    Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Daniel Dunham 26% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Sissy Girl 2-1, R2: Mighty Kai 6-1, R3: Cardiff Crack 3-1, R4: Mr. Disrespectful 12-1 +2 more
    CLASS UP4/4 board here

    3rd of 8 at 5F on Sep 18, in 1:01.80. Finished 3rd in a 10-horse optional claiming race at SA, beaten 4 lengths.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    TROUBLED TRIP Bobbled; 3wd; mild rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)
    RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (1 win)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2SA6½f DfsOC50000n1x3rd/10 -4L842.3-1LBobbled;3wd;mild rally
    8/23DMR1m TfsOC20000n1x11th/12 -11L6915-1LBrk out/bmpd;3wd;3-4wd
    7/30DMR6f DfsOC20000n1x2nd/12 -2¾L837.5-1L4w;swung out;flotd out
  6. 6Kool KittenR. Gonzalez · A. MathisGonzalez · MathisC55 8815-1Fair 20-15%—55 88C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 55 88

    Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez 33% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Andy Mathis 38% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Mirahmadi 6-1, R5: Prime Artist 3-1, R7: Subatomic Law 5-1, R9: Absolution 4-1 · Trainer R1: Selected 9-5

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 88. Last out was 10th, 8 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse optional claiming race at SA.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2SA6½f DfsOC50000n1x10th/10 -8L553.1-1LPrss ins;shft7/16;fold
    9/4DMR6½f DfsMdSpWtWon/9884.8-1LOpened up;kept to task
  7. 7Come on OmT. Baze · S. McCarthyBaze · McCarthyC55 83 81▼▼-27↕20-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -2755 83 81 ↕C2

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–83 · Last 3 figs 55 83 81

    Jockey T C Baze 27% career ★ 6-for-19 on dirt this meet (32%), #1 of 23 · Trainer Sean McCarthy 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Sogno Di Vino 4-1, R4: Speedy Wilson 3-1, R5: Henry Adams 5-1, R6: Main Impact 3-1 +1 more
    LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Stretches out from -6½ furlongs to 6 furlongs. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 6d back
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26SA-6½f TJCHarris G39th/9 -12L5565-1Close early;eased lane
    8/9DMR5f TfsOC20000n1x4th/10 -½L839.8-1LDuel outside;flattened
    7/26DMR5f TfsMdSpWtWon/10813.2-1LReluctnt;3deep;btw;clr
  8. 8JasminaK. Frey · R. Hess Jr.Frey · Hess Jr.B82 78 76▲+5≡6-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +5 · career best82 78 76 ≡B

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 76–82 · Last 3 figs 82 78 76

    Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career ★ 8-for-31 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 23 · Trainer R B Jr Hess 17% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Rodrigoknows 6-1, R5: Throwthefirstpunch 20-1, R6: Shemakesmemad 10-1, R7: My Girl Mia 15-1 +1 more
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

    A step up in company: $20,000 claiming before, allowance optional claiming today. Has moved up each time out, 76 to 78 to 82.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobble; stalked3w; clear. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/20LRC5½f DClm 20k n3lWon/6821.0-1b LBobble;stalked3w;clear
    8/16DMR5½f DClm 16k n3lc3rd/8 -3L781.8-1b LBpd st;bid3wd;no match
    7/31DMR5½f DClm 16k c2nd/8 -2½L762.9-1b L4wd;rally;too late
  9. 9Meridian Mae▼W. Orantes · M. PuypeOrantes · PuypeC70 80 55►↕@trip 8020-1Fair 30-14%► Steady70 80 55 ↕@trip 80C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 85

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 80 55

    ▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 85
    Jockey Welfin R Orantes 27% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Mike Puype 27% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Selected 9-5, R6: Club Mayo 20-1
    180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

    217 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.40 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    3/27SA6½f DOC 50k5th/7 -3L701.2-1LCrowded st;prssd;wknd
    2/21SA6f DfsMd50000Won/8805.0-1LVie btw;duel ins;clear
    1/17SA6f TfsMdSpWt10th/11 -8L5522-1LChased 3deep; tired
  10. 10Christa Mcauliffe★M. Americano · S. MiyadiAmericano · MiyadiB81 66 77▲+6@trip 876-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +681 66 77@trip 87B★ Best at the trip 87

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 66 77

    ★ Best at the trip 87
    Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Steven Miyadi 28% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #2 of 22
    Also today · Jockey R1: Grape Juice Too 5-1, R3: Geezer 10-1, R5: Chapter One 30-1, R6: Jade's Most Wanted 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Icecream Ontheside 5-2, R6: Shemakesmemad 10-1, this race: Cara Rose 20-1
    CLASS DROP5/8 board here

    Was 5th of 5 at the first call last time. 2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 5.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 35d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 8 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/18SA6f DfsOC20000n1x2nd/5 -½L8114-1LOff slow;ins;rail bid
    10/2SA6½f DfsOC50000n1x8th/10 -10L666.2-1LShuffled 2p turn;tip3w
    9/13LRC5½f DfsOC20000n1x3rd/5 -3L770.9-1LIns;tip3w;late run btw
  11. 11La SilenciosaE. Maldonado · V. GarciaMaldonado · GarciaB79 76 79►≡@trip 7910-1Fair 15-17%► Steady79 76 79 ≡@trip 79B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–85 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 76 79

    Jockey E Maldonado 36% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Victor L Garcia 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Trainer R1: Tropical Rain Day 5-2
    CLASS UP2/4 board here

    Gets a new rider, E Maldonado replacing Tiago Pereira. An 85 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2SA6½f DfsOC50000n1x5th/10 -8½L7922-1b L4-3wide; no rally
    7/30DMR6f DfsOC20000n1x7th/12 by nk7614-1b LInsd bid 5/16;faltered
    5/2SA6f DfsOC50000n1x4th/7 -1L791.8-1b LVie ins;duel turn;wknd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field
11 runners
Purse
$67,000
Post
7:45 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#2 · 15%

Claiming $50,000, for fillies, 3-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 66.98

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Factor P (early speed, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 87 · 71 · 85. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Come On Om at 20-1. Use #4 Famous Forza in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #5 REDHEADED REBA (7-2) — our number has it ranked #4.
  • #5 REDHEADED REBA — our #4 number, about right at the windows (17.3% to their 17.5%).
  • #3 TAKING A JOY RIDE — our #5 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 17.5%).
  • #2 FACTOR P — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (14.9% to their 14.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 COME ON OM (20-1) — our fair 4.8% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Factor P; pressure from #6 Kool Kitten, #9 Meridian Mae; and works against #2 Factor P, #6 Kool Kitten, #9 Meridian Mae.

Lead
2Factor P996Kool Kitten989Meridian Mae8911La Silenciosa89
Press
7Come On Om955Redheaded Reba903Taking A Joy Ride8610Christa McAuliffe84
Stalk
8Jasmina934Famous Forza921Cara Rose88
Close
none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

2
Factor P
99
6
Kool Kitten
98
7
Come On Om
95
8
Jasmina
93
4
Famous Forza
92
5
Redheaded Reba
90
9
Meridian Mae
89
11
La Silenciosa
89
1
Cara Rose
88
3
Taking A Joy Ride
86
10
Christa McAuliffe
84

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

9
Meridian Mae
16
1
Cara Rose
14
8
Jasmina
12
2
Factor P
11
3
Taking A Joy Ride
11
5
Redheaded Reba
11
6
Kool Kitten
11
11
La Silenciosa
11
7
Come On Om
10
10
Christa McAuliffe
9
4
Famous Forza
5
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