R6 Santa Anita Park · Maiden Claiming $20,000

6:45 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $21,000 · 9 runners6:45 PM · 1m Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $21K · Maiden Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Clubhouse Rose▼T. Pereira · V. BrinkerhoffPereira · BrinkerhoffB60 65 60►≡@trip 604-1Fair 8-112%► Steady60 65 60 ≡@trip 60B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 60–65 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 65 60

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Val Brinkerhoff 22% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Sissy Girl 2-1, R2: Mighty Kai 6-1, R3: Cardiff Crack 3-1, R4: Mr. Disrespectful 12-1 +2 more

CLASS UP

Finished 4th in a 9-horse maiden claiming $32,000 race at SA, beaten 10 lengths. Class relief: maiden claiming $32,000 last time, maiden claiming $20,000 today.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 27d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/12	SA	1m D	MCL 32k	4th/9 -10L	60	9.5-1	3-4w;ins-2w;no threat
9/20	LRC	6f D	fsMd20000	2nd/9 -3½L	65	5.1-1	Brk slow;2p;swung5wd
9/4	DMR	5½f D	fsMd20000	4th/9 -11L	60	12-1	Rough st;2-5w;mildly

2Estrella Esmeral▼LSA. Aguilar · S. MorfinAguilar · MorfinC40 56 60▼▼-1430-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1440 56 60C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 74LS

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Last 3 figs 40 56 60

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 74LS

Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Sergio Morfin 36% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Awesome Olga 12-1, R2: Majestic Palisades 15-1, R4: Gun Runner Charlie 15-1, R8: Cara Rose 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Curlin Tornado 30-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 60 against a 74 par.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 5d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRC	6f D	fsMd20000	8th/9 -12L	40	39-1	b	Trailed3-2wd;no impact
8/28	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -12L	56	23-1	b	Antsy;pulled;2wd;tired
7/30	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	3rd/6 -6¼L	60	37-1		Rail trip;came ot late

3Zayda at the Spa▼V. Espinoza · S. KnappEspinoza · KnappA69 55 54▲▲+103-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best69 55 54A▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 69 55 54

▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey V Espinoza 35% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Clouseau 4-5, R3: Jimmy Blue Jeans 5-1, R9: Magic Time 6-1 · Trainer R2: Mega Moon 9-2, R2: Joint Venture 6-1, R5: Henry Adams 5-1

Figures are climbing: 54, 55, 69 over its last three. A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, a mile today.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 26d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	SA	5½f D	fsMd20000	2nd/10 -4L	69	17-1	b	Traffc1/4;bit tght upr
9/20	LRC	6f D	fsMd20000	4th/9 -7L	55	8.0-1		Tracked rail; evenly
8/20	DMR	5½f D	fsMd50000	6th/9 -8L	54	23-1		Brushed st;2-4-2wide

4Icecream OnthesideA. Ayuso · S. MiyadiAyuso · MiyadiA69 64 57▲▲+15↕5-2Fair 3-125%▲▲ Big jump +1569 64 57 ↕A1

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–69 · Last 3 figs 69 64 57

Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 5-for-39 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Steven Miyadi 28% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #2 of 22

Also today · Jockey R1: Tropical Rain Day 5-2, R2: Mega Moon 9-2, R4: Captivator 3-2, R5: Opus Uno 8-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Shemakesmemad 10-1, R8: Cara Rose 20-1, R8: Christa McAuliffe 6-1

0/3 board here

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $20,000 is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 18d back

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/18	SA	1m T	fsMdSpWt	7th/10 -5½L	69	66-1	2w-ins;ins;no response
9/7	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -9½L	64	24-1	3w-ins;ins-2w;angl out
7/30	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	4th/6 -7¾L	57	14-1	Inside;2w;traffic 3/16

5Jade's Most Wanted▼M. Americano · J. PeribanAmericano · PeribanC56 4915-1Fair 20-15%—56 49C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 74
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 56 49
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 74
Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jorge Periban 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Grape Juice Too 5-1, R3: Geezer 10-1, R5: Chapter One 30-1, R8: Christa McAuliffe 6-1 +1 more
CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK
A 56 is the high figure lately, short of the 74 par. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 9 (:47.20), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
TROUBLED TRIP 4-3w; wknd/check midstr last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Oct 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 SA 5½f D fsMd20000 8th/10 -4¼L 56 3.4-1 b 4-3w;wknd/check midstr
9/13 LRC 5½f D fsMd50000 7th/8 -9½L 49 20-1 Chased inside;weakened
6Club Mayo▼W. Orantes · J. BondeOrantes · BondeC20 6520-1Fair 30-13%—20 65C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 74
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 20 65
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 74
Jockey Welfin R Orantes 27% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jeff Bonde 28% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Selected 9-5, R8: Meridian Mae 20-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
9th last time, 16 lengths back, in a field of 9. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
TROUBLED TRIP Checked early; 3-4wide last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 LRC 6f D fsMd20000 9th/9 -16L 20 4.9-1 b Checked early;3-4wide
8/9 DMR 5f D fsMd20000 4th/10 -2L 65 2.4-1 4deep;3w turn;flatten
7Rejoiceful▼A. Bautista · F. RondanBautista · RondanB54 6415-1Fair 15-16%—54 64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 74
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 54 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 74
Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 0-for-21 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Felix Rondan 21% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Typhoon Tommy 30-1
A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $20,000, and worth asking why. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 5d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 SA 6f T fsMdSpWt 10th/10 -9¾L 54 87-1 2-3wide; no factor
9/7 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 7th/10 -5L 64 51-1 Ins;brief steady 5/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	SA	5½f D	fsMd20000	8th/10 -4¼L	56	3.4-1	b	4-3w;wknd/check midstr
9/13	LRC	5½f D	fsMd50000	7th/8 -9½L	49	20-1		Chased inside;weakened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRC	6f D	fsMd20000	9th/9 -16L	20	4.9-1	b	Checked early;3-4wide
8/9	DMR	5f D	fsMd20000	4th/10 -2L	65	2.4-1		4deep;3w turn;flatten

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6f T	fsMdSpWt	10th/10 -9¾L	54	87-1		2-3wide; no factor
9/7	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	7th/10 -5L	64	51-1		Ins;brief steady 5/8

8ShemakesmemadK. Frey · S. MiyadiFrey · MiyadiB62 51 72▲+5↕10-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +562 51 72 ↕B2

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–72 · Last 3 figs 62 51 72

Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career ★ 8-for-31 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 23 · Trainer Steven Miyadi 28% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #2 of 22

Also today · Jockey R2: Rodrigoknows 6-1, R5: Throwthefirstpunch 20-1, R7: My Girl Mia 15-1, R8: Jasmina 6-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Icecream Ontheside 5-2, R8: Cara Rose 20-1, R8: Christa McAuliffe 6-1

CLASS DROP

Kyle Frey takes over from Alfredo L Bautista in the saddle. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 22d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	SA	5½f D	fsMd20000	5th/10 -3½L	62	9.1-1		Tracked ins; no rally
9/13	LRC	5½f D	fsMd50000	5th/8 -11L	51	6.3-1	b	Ins-2wide;swung out
7/23	DMR	5f D	fsMd50000	2nd/9 -1L	72	3.0-1		Duel outside; held 2nd

9Main ImpactT. Baze · R. HansonBaze · HansonA63 71 57►3-1Fair 9-219%► Steady63 71 57A3

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 63 71 57

Jockey T C Baze 27% career ★ 6-for-19 on dirt this meet (32%), #1 of 23 · Trainer Ryan Hanson 37% career ★ 3-for-15 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Sogno Di Vino 4-1, R4: Speedy Wilson 3-1, R5: Henry Adams 5-1, R7: Lino's Angel 20-1 +1 more

Switches from turf to dirt. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $20,000.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 19d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	SA	1m T	fsMdSpWt	9th/10 -6½L	63	27-1	b	Press2w;vie btwn;faded
9/7	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -2L	71	38-1	b	2w-ins;tip out;flatten
8/29	DMR	5f T	fsMdSpWt	6th/10 -4½L	57	30-1	b	Mild shuffle3/8;angl6w

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #8 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $20,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$21,000

Post

6:45 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 25%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.4

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Icecream Ontheside (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 69 · 64 · 57. Backup is #8 Shemakesmemad at 10-1. Use #9 Main Impact in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 ICECREAM ONTHESIDE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#4 ICECREAM ONTHESIDE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.1% to their 22.3%).
#9 MAIN IMPACT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 19.5%).
#3 ZAYDA AT THE SPA — our #8 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 19.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 ESTRELLA ESMERAL (30-1) — our fair 3.2% is above the morning line's 2.5%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Shemakesmemad; the shape helps #6 Club Mayo, #9 Main Impact; and works against #4 Icecream Ontheside, #5 Jade's Most Wanted, #7 Rejoiceful.

Lead

8Shemakesmemad87

Press

none

Stalk

9Main Impact916Club Mayo82

2Estrella Esmeral811Clubhouse Rose793Zayda At The Spa79

No style yet

5Jade's Most Wanted924Icecream Ontheside777Rejoiceful76

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Main Impact

Shemakesmemad

Club Mayo

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Clubhouse Rose

Zayda At The Spa

Estrella Esmeral

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