Pick sheet

Race 13:00 PM Md Sp Wt

1 Mi · Turf · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Darn Good Dancer, is 36% to win (morning line implies 31%). Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

Top pick #6 Darn Good Dancer ML 3-2 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey J. Hernandez · Trainer P. Damato · 210 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/5	SA	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/9 -3½L	72	2.2-1	L	Bp st;aim3-2w;no match

Case: Last out 2nd in the fsMdSpWt at SA. Last Brisnet figures 72. P. Damato / J. Hernandez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5½f). Off 210 days.

Contender #3 Platinum Groove ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +4 ★ Best at 1m turf: 82 ▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 78

Jockey H. Berrios · Trainer J. Mullins · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-0-2 · best fig at 1m turf 82 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m T	fsMdSpWt	3rd/8 -2½L	81	1.7-1	L	Circled 5wd; ran on
8/30	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	3rd/9 -3½L	82	3.5-1	L	Bpd st;ins;altered3/16
8/1	DMR	5f T	fsMdSpWt	5th/8 -2L	73	16-1	L	Off slow;lost path 1/8

Case: Last out 3rd in the fsMdSpWt at SA. Last Brisnet figures 81-82-73. Best at today's distance 82. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Santa Anita. J. Mullins / H. Berrios.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Use #2 Cyclone Claire ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 78 Last out 2nd in the fsMdSpWt at SA. Last Brisnet figures 81-70. Best at today's distance 81. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Santa Anita. J. Sadler / A. Ayuso. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey A. Ayuso · Trainer J. Sadler · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1m turf 81 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/8 -3½L	81	11-1	b L	Angled 6wd; late rally
8/23	DMR	5f T	fsMdSpWt	4th/12 -6L	70	12-1	b L	Veered in/bumped early

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #5 · B #4, #6, #7 · C #1

Angles: #1 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #2 Last fig 81 at/above par 78 · #3 Last fig 81 at/above par 78 · #4 Last fig 79 at/above par 78 · #5 Last fig 82 at/above par 78 · #5 Lone speed on early pace · #6 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78

R1 Santa Anita Park · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

3:00 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $65,000 · 7 runners3:00 PM · 1m Turf · 7 runners

Official $65K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Training Good▼Ran 7thV. Espinoza · A. GarciaEspinoza · GarciaC71 72 67▲+3≡@trip 7220-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +371 72 67 ≡@trip 72C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 64–72 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 72 67

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey V Espinoza 35% career 2-for-12 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Antonio C Garcia 32% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Strike A Match 3-1, R10: Divine Kismet 10-1 · Trainer R10: Divine Kismet 10-1

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

286 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Beaten 1 length for 2nd in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at SA.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 7d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
1/19	SA	1m T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/5 -1L	71	3.4-1	b L	2w;loomed3w;denied
11/14	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/7 -2¾L	72	41-1	b	Ins;2w;swung5w;up2nd
10/18	SA	1m T	fsMdSpWt	4th/7 -5¼L	67	28-1	b	Svd ground; no rally

2Cyclone Claire▲Ran 4thA. Ayuso · J. SadlerAyuso · SadlerA81 70@trip 817-2Fair 9-219%—81 70@trip 81A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 783
Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 70
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 78
Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 3-for-51 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer John W Sadler 34% career ★ 6-for-26 on turf this meet (23%)
Also today · Jockey R2: King Stephen 6-1, R5: Mubtadaa 8-1, R6: Shop Till You Drop 9-2, R8: Moment Of Valor 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R10: Rosa's Miracle 3-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Last out was 2nd, 3½ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at SA. Best recent figure of 81 sits right around the 78 par.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Angled 6wd; late rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 15; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 SA 1m T fsMdSpWt 2nd/8 -3½L 81 11-1 b L Angled 6wd; late rally
8/23 DMR 5f T fsMdSpWt 4th/12 -6L 70 12-1 b L Veered in/bumped early

3Platinum Groove▲★Ran 2ndH. Berrios · J. MullinsBerrios · MullinsA81 82 73▲+4@trip 822-1Fair 5-228%▲ Up +481 82 73@trip 82A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 78★ Best at the trip 822

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 82 73

▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 78★ Best at the trip 82

Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career 3-for-33 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Jeff Mullins 34% career 3-for-11 on turf this meet (27%), #1 of 27 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Awsome Amy 9-5, R5: Oobubbakakayo 20-1, R7: Prospect Of Love 6-1, R8: Miles Finch 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Proletariat 3-5, R5: Doo Wop Don 5-2

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Tops the field on speed figures, an 82 against 81 for the next best. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at SA, beaten 2½ lengths.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Circled 5wd; ran on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 7d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m T	fsMdSpWt	3rd/8 -2½L	81	1.7-1	L	Circled 5wd; ran on
8/30	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	3rd/9 -3½L	82	3.5-1	L	Bpd st;ins;altered3/16
8/1	DMR	5f T	fsMdSpWt	5th/8 -2L	73	16-1	L	Off slow;lost path 1/8

4Kitty Mac▲Ran 3rdW. Orantes · E. AlvarezOrantes · AlvarezB79 70 64▲▲+14@trip 7930-1Fair 99-11%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best79 70 64@trip 79B▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 78

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 70 64

▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 78

Jockey Welfin R Orantes 27% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Going Nowhere 30-1 · Trainer R6: Eltonsingsanother 4-1, R10: She's My Star 30-1

Figures are climbing: 64, 70, 79 over its last three. Still looking for the first win after 6 starts.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Off slow; gaining 7wd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 17d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m T	fsMdSpWt	4th/8 -3½L	79	69-1	L	Off slow; gaining 7wd
8/14	DMR	1m T	fsMd50000	4th/9 -2L	70	46-1	L	Check early;2w;evenly
7/31	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	9th/10 -7¼L	64	66-1	L	Off slw;3-4w;no menace

5Sally's Wish▲▲Ran 5thE. Garcia · D. BakerGarcia · BakerA82 75 79▲+6≡@trip 7915-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +682 75 79 ≡@trip 79A▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 78▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 74–82 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 75 79

▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 78▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Epifanio Garcia 33% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer D Wayne Baker 27% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile. Owns the highest recent figure here at 82.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 6d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SA	6f T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/11 -3L	82	23-1	L	Rush up;ins;held 2nd
8/23	DMR	5f T	fsMdSpWt	3rd/12 -1L	75	9.4-1	L	Ins;cleared;yielded1/8
3/6	SA	1m T	fsMdSpWt	4th/9 -1L	79	49-1	L	Led inside; weakened

6Darn Good Dancer▼Ran 1stJ. Hernandez · P. DamatoHernandez · DamatoB723-2Fair 9-536%—72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 781
Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 72
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career ★ 11-for-54 on turf this meet (20%), #2 of 23 · Trainer Philip Damato
Also today · Jockey R4: Path To Power 6-1, R5: Doo Wop Don 5-2, R7: Dragon Reign 3-1, R8: Jimmy Winkfield 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Melismatic 6-1, R4: Path To Power 6-1
180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Back after 210 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 18 (5F in :59.20), 4 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
4/5 SA 5½f D fsMdSpWt 2nd/9 -3½L 72 2.2-1 L Bp st;aim3-2w;no match
7Allied FleetRan 6thJ. Spencer · C. GainesSpencer · GainesB77 649-2Fair 10-110%—77 64B
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 77 64
Jockey J P Spencer 14% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Carla Gaines 28% career 3-for-13 on turf this meet (23%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Kid Charlemagne 4-1, R4: Tribalism 8-1, R10: Grazed In A Haze 30-1 · Trainer R10: Seamless Factor 7-5
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
J P Spencer takes over from Umberto Rispoli in the saddle. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 4d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 SA 6f T fsMdSpWt 4th/11 -11L 77 13-1 L Angle 4wd;split;imprvd
9/4 DMR 6½f D fsMdSpWt 7th/9 -11L 64 4.0-1 L 2w turn;angld in;tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SA	6f T	fsMdSpWt	4th/11 -11L	77	13-1	L	Angle 4wd;split;imprvd
9/4	DMR	6½f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/9 -11L	64	4.0-1	L	2w turn;angld in;tired

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Darn Good Dancer, won.

1st6Darn Good DancerWin$3.80Place$2.60Show$2.40Our #1

2nd3Platinum GrooveWin—Place$3.00Show$2.60Our #2

3rd4Kitty MacWin—Place—Show$6.80Our #7

4th2Cyclone ClaireOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$65,000

Post

3:00 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#6 · 36%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.69

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Darn Good Dancer (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-2). Recent figures: 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Platinum Groove at 2-1. Use #2 Cyclone Claire in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Darn Good Dancer won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 DARN GOOD DANCER	1st
#2	#3 PLATINUM GROOVE	2nd
#3	#2 CYCLONE CLAIRE	4th
#4	#7 ALLIED FLEET	6th
#5	#5 SALLY'S WISH	5th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Darn Good Dancer	our #1
2nd	#3 Platinum Groove	our #2
3rd	#4 Kitty Mac	our #7
4th	#2 Cyclone Claire	our #3
5th	#5 Sally's Wish	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 DARN GOOD DANCER (3-2) — our number agrees.
#6 DARN GOOD DANCER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.9% to their 31.3%).
#3 PLATINUM GROOVE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.4% to their 26.0%).
#2 CYCLONE CLAIRE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.3% to their 17.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 Sally's Wish.

Lead

none

Press

5Sally's Wish97

Stalk

6Darn Good Dancer871Training Good824Kitty Mac75

3Platinum Groove832Cyclone Claire81

No style yet

7Allied Fleet85

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Sally's Wish

Darn Good Dancer

Training Good

Kitty Mac

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Cyclone Claire

Platinum Groove

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