Pick sheet

Race 34:01 PM Md 32000Early Pick 4 starts

5.5F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Awsome Amy, is 32% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Awsome Amy ML 9-5 Fair 2-1 Model #1

Jockey H. Berrios · Trainer O. Jauregui · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	SA	1m D	MCL 32k	2nd/9 -3L	71	3.6-1		Ins;2wd-ins;no match
8/28	DMR	6f D	frMoc65000	4th/7 -5½L	66	14-1		Brk in/bpd;3w;edged3rd

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMd32000 at SA. Last Brisnet figures 71-66. 0-for-1 at Santa Anita. O. Jauregui / H. Berrios.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Chaseher ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -12

Jockey R. Gonzalez · Trainer L. Mendez · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 60 · 71 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
8/22	DMR	5½f D	MSW	8th/10 -7½L	60	46-1	Chased inside; tired
7/31	DMR	5f T	MSW	4th/9 -1L	70	18-1	Erly trbl;lost path1/8
6/11	SA	5f D	MSW	4th/7 -2L	74	12-1	Stalk;bid3deep;flatten

Case: Last out 8th/10 -7½L in the fMdSpWt at DMR. Last Brisnet figures 60-70-74. Best at today's distance 60. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Santa Anita. L. Mendez / R. Gonzalez.

Knock: Off 71 days. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Use #2 Princess Jet ML 2-1 Fair 7-2 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75 Blinkers off Last out 5th/10 -½L in the fMoc65000 at DMR. Last Brisnet figures 68-58. Best at today's distance 68. 0-for-2 at the distance. P. Miller / A. Aguilar. Knock: Off 86 days. Never raced at Santa Anita.

Jockey A. Aguilar · Trainer P. Miller · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 68 · 86 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	DMR	5½f D	Moc65000	5th/10 -½L	68	13-1	b	Clear;overtaken;flattn
7/18	DMR	5f D	MSW	8th/9 -6½L	58	23-1	b	Bmpd st;climb/on heels

Longshot #7 Misty Coal ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #4 Top last-race fig

Jockey F. Orduna-Rojas · Trainer G. Lopez · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	SA	6½f T	MSW	9th/11 -9¾L	74	73-1		Inside; checked 3/8
9/25	SA	6f T	MSW	7th/7 -3½L	65	54-1	b	Inside duel;weakened

Case: Last out 9th/11 -9¾L in the fMdSpWt at SA. Last Brisnet figures 74-65. G. Lopez / F. Orduna-Rojas.

Knock: Never raced at Santa Anita.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #7 · B #1, #4, #5 · ? #6 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #2 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #4 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 75

R3 Santa Anita Park · Maiden Claiming $32,000

4:01 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $26,000 · 7 runners4:01 PM · 5½f Dirt · 7 runners

Official $26K · Maiden Claiming $32,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Lovely Maya▼Ran 5thK. Frey · D. O'NeillFrey · O'NeillB55 63@trip 6320-1Fair 30-13%—55 63@trip 63B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 63
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career ★ 10-for-39 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 24 · Trainer Doug O'Neill 34% career ★ 6-for-20 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 26
Also today · Jockey R4: Proletariat 3-5, R5: Crypto Ride 20-1, R7: Vino Vino Vino 5-1, R8: Kerry Gold 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: My Kat 8-1, R7: Vino Vino Vino 5-1, R7: I Know Nothing 12-1
Finished 5th in a 9-horse maiden claiming $32,000 race at SA, beaten 13 lengths. Cuts back from a mile to 5½ furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 28 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 SA 1m D MCL 32k 5th/9 -13L 55 3.5-1 b Tight briefly;ins-2w
9/19 LRC 5½f D MCL 30k 2nd/5 -1L 63 2.9-1 b Press outsd;floatd out
2Princess Jet▼Ran 2ndA. Aguilar · P. MillerAguilar · MillerA68 58@trip 682-1Fair 7-222%—68 58@trip 68A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 753
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 58
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 4-for-30 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Peter Miller 30% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%)
Also today · Jockey R9: Maker And Sons 7-2 · Trainer R9: Blame It On Jack 8-1, R10: Tiz The Truth 12-1
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Purse drops from $50,000 to $26,000 against its last start. Gets a new rider, Armando Aguilar replacing Joel Rosario.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 8; 4 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/7 DMR 5½f D Moc65000 5th/10 -½L 68 13-1 b Clear;overtaken;flattn
7/18 DMR 5f D MSW 8th/9 -6½L 58 23-1 b Bmpd st;climb/on heels
3Awsome AmyRan 3rdH. Berrios · O. JaureguiBerrios · JaureguiA71 669-5Fair 2-132%—71 66A1
Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 71 66
Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer O J Jauregui 30% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Platinum Groove 2-1, R5: Oobubbakakayo 20-1, R7: Prospect Of Love 6-1, R8: Miles Finch 15-1 +1 more
CLASS DROP
Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going a mile. A 71 top number against a 75 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 SA 1m D MCL 32k 2nd/9 -3L 71 3.6-1 Ins;2wd-ins;no match
8/28 DMR 6f D frMoc65000 4th/7 -5½L 66 14-1 Brk in/bpd;3w;edged3rd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	SA	1m D	MCL 32k	5th/9 -13L	55	3.5-1	b	Tight briefly;ins-2w
9/19	LRC	5½f D	MCL 30k	2nd/5 -1L	63	2.9-1	b	Press outsd;floatd out

4Miyako Pauma▼Ran 6thT. Baze · G. HaleyBaze · HaleyB55 30 34▲▲+14↕@trip 3430-1Fair 99-11%▲▲ Big jump +1455 30 34 ↕@trip 34B▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 30–59 · Best fig at today's trip 34 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 30 34

▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey T C Baze 27% career ★ 6-for-26 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Gloria Haley 19% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: City Exile 15-1, R6: Eltonsingsanother 4-1, R8: Frank Bullitt 3-1, R9: Van Gogh Style 5-2

★ FASTEST WORK

A 59 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par. Last out was 6th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $32,000 race at SA.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 42 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	SA	1m D	MCL 32k	6th/9 -11L	55	20-1	b	Up close;led btwn;fold
9/5	DMR	1m T	MSW	10th/10 -16L	30	28-1	b	Brf spd3w;chs3-5w;tire
8/7	DMR	5½f D	Moc65000	10th/10 -16L	34	24-1	b	Leaned back/off slow

5ChaseherRan 1stR. Gonzalez · L. MendezGonzalez · MendezB60 70 74▼▼-12@trip 602-1Fair 5-227%▼▼ Big drop -1260 70 74@trip 60B2
Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 70 74
Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez 33% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 24 · Trainer Luis Mendez 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Palmer Beach 5-1, R7: Grammy's Gal 6-1, R9: Courtside Action 4-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Figures have slipped: 74, 70, 60 over its last three. A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $32,000, and worth asking why.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 25; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/22 DMR 5½f D MSW 8th/10 -7½L 60 46-1 Chased inside; tired
7/31 DMR 5f T MSW 4th/9 -1L 70 18-1 Erly trbl;lost path1/8
6/11 SA 5f D MSW 4th/7 -2L 74 12-1 Stalk;bid3deep;flatten
6Tiz LezendaryRan 4thM. Americano · S. MiyadiAmericano · Miyadi?15-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Steven Miyadi 28% career ★ 5-for-17 on dirt this meet (29%)
Also today · Jockey R5: Del Mar Jerry 5-1, R6: Bessie Coleman 3-2, R8: Feeling Lucky 12-1 · Trainer R5: Del Mar Jerry 5-1, R6: Bessie Coleman 3-2
Debut for this Tiz The Law filly, whose dam is Lezendary. Debut for a trainer who is 9% with first-timers, over 81 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 18 days ago
Last three races
First start. By Tiz the Law out of Lezendary (Zensational)
Trainer S. Miyadi: 1st-time starters: 9% wins, 38% in the money (81 starts) · 2-year-olds: 10% wins, 42% in the money (153 starts)
Jockey M. Americano in sprints: 88 wins from 372 (24%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/14 SA 4f :52.00 handily 3/4
10/8 SA 5f 1:02.00 handily 12/19
10/1 SA 5f 1:03.00 handily 18/21 from gate
9/24 SA 5f 1:02.20 handily 13/15 from gate
9/19 SA 4f :48.80 handily 47/98 from gate
7Misty CoalLSRan 7thF. Orduna-Rojas · G. LopezOrduna-Rojas · LopezA74 658-1Fair 10-110%—74 65ALS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 74 65
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Francisco Orduna-Rojas 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer George L Lopez 26% career
Also today · Jockey R10: She's My Star 30-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Switches from turf to dirt. Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)
TROUBLED TRIP Inside; checked 3/8 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 16d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 SA 6½f T MSW 9th/11 -9¾L 74 73-1 Inside; checked 3/8
9/25 SA 6f T MSW 7th/7 -3½L 65 54-1 b Inside duel;weakened

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/14	SA	4f	:52.00	handily	3/4
10/8	SA	5f	1:02.00	handily	12/19
10/1	SA	5f	1:03.00	handily	18/21	from gate
9/24	SA	5f	1:02.20	handily	13/15	from gate
9/19	SA	4f	:48.80	handily	47/98	from gate

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Awsome Amy, finished 3rd.

1st5ChaseherWin$4.80Place$2.60Show$2.10Our #2

2nd2Princess JetWin—Place$3.20Show$2.40Our #3

3rd3Awsome AmyWin—Place—Show$2.60Our #1

4th6Tiz LezendaryOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Maiden Claiming $32,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$26,000

Post

4:01 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 32%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.64

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Awsome Amy (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 71 · 66. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Chaseher at 2-1. Use #2 Princess Jet in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Awsome Amy ran 3rd · Chaseher won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 1st, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 AWSOME AMY	3rd
#2	#5 CHASEHER	1st
#3	#2 PRINCESS JET	2nd
#4	#7 MISTY COAL	7th
#5	#6 TIZ LEZENDARY	4th

Actual finish

1st	#5 Chaseher	our #2
2nd	#2 Princess Jet	our #3
3rd	#3 Awsome Amy	our #1
4th	#6 Tiz Lezendary	our #5
5th	#1 Lovely Maya	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 AWSOME AMY (9-5) — our number agrees.
#3 AWSOME AMY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.5% to their 28.0%).
#5 CHASEHER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.9% to their 26.1%).
#2 PRINCESS JET — our #3 number, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 26.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Princess Jet; pressure from #4 Miyako Pauma, #7 Misty Coal; and works against #1 Lovely Maya, #2 Princess Jet, #4 Miyako Pauma.

Lead

2Princess Jet974Miyako Pauma837Misty Coal831Lovely Maya75

Press

none

Stalk

5Chaseher933Awsome Amy82

none

No style yet

6Tiz Lezendary

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Princess Jet

Chaseher

Miyako Pauma

Misty Coal

Awsome Amy

Lovely Maya

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Lovely Maya

Awsome Amy

Miyako Pauma

Princess Jet

Chaseher

Misty Coal

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

WIN ($2) / PLACE ($2) / SHOW ($2) / EXACTA ($1) / TRIFECTA ($1)

SUPERFECTA ($.10) / ROLLINGDOUBLE ($2) / ROLLING PICK 3 ($1)

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