Pick sheet

Race 65:33 PM OClm 16000

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Bessie Coleman, is 39% to win (morning line implies 38%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Bessie Coleman ML 3-2 Fair 8-5 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -8

Jockey M. Americano · Trainer S. Miyadi · KEE 4: 1-2-0 · Dist 2: 2-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 85 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	6f T	fsOC20000n1x	9th/9 -4½L	72	26-1	L	3deep;4w into str;wknd
9/7	DMR	5f T	fsOC20000n1x	10th/12 -8¼L	68	6.7-1	L	Crowded st;3w;swung5w
7/30	DMR	6f D	fsOC20000n1x	Won/12	84	11-1	L	Bp7/16;shft/bp/lug str

Case: Last out 9th/9 -4½L in the fsOC20000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 72-68-84. Best at today's distance 85. 2-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Santa Anita. S. Miyadi / M. Americano.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Ryan's Girl ML 3-1 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▼ Down -7

Jockey K. Kimura · Trainer G. Vallejo · KEE 14: 5-2-2 · Dist 5: 0-0-1 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	6f T	fsOC20000n1x	8th/9 -3L	74	21-1	b L	2wd;bmpd 1/8;weakened
9/18	LRC	5½f D	Alw s	2nd/8 -3L	78	1.8-1	b L	Ins-3w;angled;rallied
7/26	DMR	1m T	fsOC20000n1x	6th/10 -2¾L	81	7.8-1	b L	Ins-2wd;tip out;flattn

Case: Last out 8th/9 -3L in the fsOC20000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 74-78-81. Best at today's distance 74. 0-for-5 at the distance. 5-for-14 at Santa Anita. G. Vallejo / K. Kimura.

Knock: 0-for-5 at the distance.

Use #6 Eltonsingsanother ML 4-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ► Steady ★ Best at 6f dirt: 90 ▲ Lone speed on early pace Last out won in the fClm10000 at SA. Last Brisnet figures 81-76-90. Best at today's distance 90. 1-for-13 at the distance. 3-for-16 at Santa Anita. E. Alvarez / T. Baze. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey T. Baze · Trainer E. Alvarez · KEE 16: 3-4-3 · Dist 13: 1-4-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 90 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	SA	5½f D	Clm 10k	Won/7	81	2.2-1	L	Inside bid;held late
9/11	LRC	5½f D	Clm 16k	2nd/7 -3½L	76	4.5-1	L	Vie4deep;chsd;gaining
8/23	DMR	6f D	Clm 8k	Won/8	90	2.6-1	L	Led ins;clear;drew off

Longshot #1 Someday Lady ML 30-1 Fair 20-1 Model #5 ▼▼ Big drop -49 ↕ Up and down 30–83 ▲ Rider upgrade (30% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey E. Payeras · Trainer C. Dollase · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	SA	1m D	OC 50k n1x	5th/5 -17L	30	24-1	b L	Ins;gave way2nd;eased
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2ml	6th/6 -7½L	83	5.4-1	b L	Bothered; no threat
7/19	EMD	6½f D	WaLgstrB50k	4th/7 -3½L	79	30-1		2-w; steady effort

Case: Last out 5th/5 -17L in the fOC50000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 30-83-79. 0-for-1 at Santa Anita. C. Dollase / E. Payeras.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #6 · B #3, #7, #8 · C #1, #2

Angles: #1 Rider upgrade (30% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprint · #2 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #6 Lone speed on early pace · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86

R6 Santa Anita Park · Optional Claiming $16,000

5:33 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $29,000 · 5 runners (3 out)5:33 PM · 6f Dirt · 5 runners (3 out)

Official $29K · Optional Claiming $16,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Someday Lady▲LSRan 5thE. Payeras · C. DollasePayeras · DollaseC30 83 79▼▼-49↕30-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -4930 83 79 ↕C▲ Rider upgrade (30% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprintLS

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -49 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 30–83 · Last 3 figs 30 83 79

▲ Rider upgrade (30% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprintLS

Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Craig Dollase 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

0/3 board here

Drops from optional claiming to optional claiming. Last out was 5th, 17 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse optional claiming race at SA.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP 5f in :58.60 on Aug 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	SA	1m D	OC 50k n1x	5th/5 -17L	30	24-1	b L	Ins;gave way2nd;eased
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2ml	6th/6 -7½L	83	5.4-1	b L	Bothered; no threat
7/19	EMD	6½f D	WaLgstrB50k	4th/7 -3½L	79	30-1		2-w; steady effort

2Ready Jet Go▼J. Rodriguez · A. AquinoRodriguez · AquinoC74 59 80▲+4@trip 7430-1<1%▲ Up +474 59 80@trip 74C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 59 80

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jose Elias Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Angela M Aquino 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

WON LAST

Changes barns, from Ashley T Garcia to Angela M Aquino. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse allowance race at GRP.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 61 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	GRP	6f D	Alw n3x	Won/7	74	9.1-1	b L	Roused 1/4p;led;drvng
9/13	GRP	5½f D	SoBelle14k	6th/7 -9½L	59	18-1	L	3wide; weakened
1/17	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n1ml	6th/6 -8½L	80	24-1	L	Tracked ins; tired

3Bessie ColemanRan 3rdM. Americano · S. MiyadiAmericano · MiyadiB72 68 84▼▼-8@trip 853-2Fair 8-539%▼▼ Big drop -872 68 84@trip 85B1

Card model 39% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 68 84

Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Steven Miyadi 28% career ★ 5-for-17 on dirt this meet (29%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Tiz Lezendary 15-1, R5: Del Mar Jerry 5-1, R8: Feeling Lucky 12-1 · Trainer R3: Tiz Lezendary 15-1, R5: Del Mar Jerry 5-1

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. A big drop, optional claiming to optional claiming, and worth asking why.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	6f T	fsOC20000n1x	9th/9 -4½L	72	26-1	L	3deep;4w into str;wknd
9/7	DMR	5f T	fsOC20000n1x	10th/12 -8¼L	68	6.7-1	L	Crowded st;3w;swung5w
7/30	DMR	6f D	fsOC20000n1x	Won/12	84	11-1	L	Bp7/16;shft/bp/lug str

4Shop Till You DropRan 2ndA. Ayuso · R. BaltasAyuso · BaltasA75 81 84▼-6≡@trip 839-2Fair 7-112%▼ Down -675 81 84 ≡@trip 83A

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 81 84

Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 6-for-48 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Richard Baltas 31% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Cyclone Claire 7-2, R2: King Stephen 6-1, R5: Mubtadaa 8-1, R8: Moment Of Valor 10-1 +1 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS3/5 board here

Figures have slipped: 84, 81, 75 over its last three. A step up in company: allowance before, optional claiming today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Bpd erly; 4-5w; churn on last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LRC	5½f D	Alw s	5th/8 -6½L	75	1.5-1	L	Bpd erly;4-5w;churn on
7/30	DMR	6½f D	Clm 25k	2nd/8 -2L	81	4.0-1	L	Stalk;3-4wd to stretch
7/3	LRC	5½f D	Clm 10k n3l	Won/6	84	2.0-1	L	3w;tip5w;geared down

5Ryan's GirlRan 1stK. Kimura · G. VallejoKimura · VallejoA74 78 81▼-73-1Fair 5-231%▼ Down -774 78 81A2

Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 74 78 81

Jockey Kazushi Kimura 32% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Genaro Vallejo 24% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Melismatic 6-1, R5: Brother O' Brien 3-1, R7: Magic World 8-1, R8: Owl 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Oobubbakakayo 20-1

4/6 board here

Switches from turf to dirt. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 30 days ago

RECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	6f T	fsOC20000n1x	8th/9 -3L	74	21-1	b L	2wd;bmpd 1/8;weakened
9/18	LRC	5½f D	Alw s	2nd/8 -3L	78	1.8-1	b L	Ins-3w;angled;rallied
7/26	DMR	1m T	fsOC20000n1x	6th/10 -2¾L	81	7.8-1	b L	Ins-2wd;tip out;flattn

6Eltonsingsanother▲★Ran 4thT. Baze · E. AlvarezBaze · AlvarezA81 76 90►@trip 904-1Fair 7-113%► Steady81 76 90@trip 90A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 903
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 76 90
▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 90
Jockey T C Baze 27% career ★ 6-for-26 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 26
Also today · Jockey R3: Miyako Pauma 30-1, R5: City Exile 15-1, R8: Frank Bullitt 3-1, R9: Van Gogh Style 5-2 · Trainer R1: Kitty Mac 30-1, R10: She's My Star 30-1
CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST4/7 board here
Owns the highest recent figure here at 90. Won last out in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at SA.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Jul 25; 1 work in 30d
RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 SA 5½f D Clm 10k Won/7 81 2.2-1 L Inside bid;held late
9/11 LRC 5½f D Clm 16k 2nd/7 -3½L 76 4.5-1 L Vie4deep;chsd;gaining
8/23 DMR 6f D Clm 8k Won/8 90 2.6-1 L Led ins;clear;drew off

7Brookys Gal▼F. Monroy · I. TamayoMonroy · TamayoB72 82 67▼-3@trip 8515-1<1%▼ Down -372 82 67@trip 85B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 82 67

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Francisco Monroy 24% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Isidro Tamayo 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

CLASS UP2/3 board here

9 wins from 16 starts at this distance. Off 55 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 13d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	DMR	6½f D	fsOC20000n1x	7th/9 -5¼L	72	27-1	L	Prss btwn;bpd/chck upr
1/10	SA	6f D	Clm 10k v	Won/8 by ½	82	1.6-1	L	4deep;aim3w;drove clr
12/28	SA	6½f D	fsOC20000n1x	12th/13 -8¾L	67	52-1	L	Tracked ins;weakened

8My Kat▼E. Maldonado · D. O'NeillMaldonado · O'NeillB76 49 68▲▲+13↕@trip 818-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +1376 49 68 ↕@trip 81B▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–76 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 49 68

▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey E Maldonado 36% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Doug O'Neill 34% career ★ 6-for-20 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 26 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R7: I Know Nothing 12-1 · Trainer R3: Lovely Maya 20-1, R7: Vino Vino Vino 5-1, R7: I Know Nothing 12-1

60D LAYOFF3/6 board here

Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 6 furlongs. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 76 against a 86 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 5d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/28	DMR	5f T	Clm 25k	5th/8 -1L	76	22-1	b L	Cleared;duel ins;wknd
7/31	DMR	5½f D	Clm 16k c	7th/8 -5½L	49	3.0-1	b L	Fracts;bpd/crowded brk
6/27	LRC	5½f D	Clm 20k	3rd/7 -5½L	68	4.4-1	b L	3-5wide; up for 3rd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Bessie Coleman, finished 3rd.

1st5Ryan's GirlWin$5.40Place$3.40Show$2.20Our #2

2nd4Shop Till You DropWin—Place$4.60Show$2.60Our #4

3rd3Bessie ColemanWin—Place—Show$2.20Our #1

4th6EltonsingsanotherOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $16,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$29,000

Post

5:33 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 39%

Claiming $16,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 66.98

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Bessie Coleman (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-2). Recent figures: 72 · 68 · 84. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #5 Ryan's Girl at 3-1. Use #6 Eltonsingsanother in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Bessie Coleman ran 3rd · Ryan's Girl won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 1st, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 BESSIE COLEMAN	3rd
#2	#5 RYAN'S GIRL	1st
#3	#6 ELTONSINGSANOTHER	4th
#4	#4 SHOP TILL YOU DROP	2nd
#5	#1 SOMEDAY LADY	5th

Actual finish

1st	#5 Ryan's Girl	our #2
2nd	#4 Shop Till You Drop	our #4
3rd	#3 Bessie Coleman	our #1
4th	#6 Eltonsingsanother	our #3
5th	#1 Someday Lady	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 BESSIE COLEMAN (3-2) — our number agrees.
#3 BESSIE COLEMAN — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 36.5%, they've got 31.5%.
#5 RYAN'S GIRL — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 26.5%, they've got 19.7%.
#6 ELTONSINGSANOTHER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 BESSIE COLEMAN — we make it 36.5%, the morning line works out to 31.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#5 RYAN'S GIRL — we make it 26.5%, the morning line works out to 19.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 SOMEDAY LADY (30-1) — our fair 3.7% is above the morning line's 2.5%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 My Kat; pressure from #1 Someday Lady, #5 Ryan's Girl; the shape helps #2 Ready Jet Go, #3 Bessie Coleman, #4 Shop Till You Drop; and works against #1 Someday Lady, #8 My Kat.

Lead

8My Kat961Someday Lady90

Press

5Ryan's Girl966Eltonsingsanother963Bessie Coleman914Shop Till You Drop907Brookys Gal90

Stalk

2Ready Jet Go84

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Ryan's Girl

Eltonsingsanother

My Kat

Bessie Coleman

Someday Lady

Shop Till You Drop

Brookys Gal

Ready Jet Go

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Someday Lady

Ready Jet Go

Eltonsingsanother

Brookys Gal

Shop Till You Drop

My Kat

Bessie Coleman

Ryan's Girl

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Bet types

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