Pick sheet

Race 23:30 PM OClm 50000

1 Mi · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Moonlit Sonata, is 40% to win (morning line implies 36%). Pace: honest. Speed from #5, #1, #3.

Top pick #4 Moonlit Sonata ML 3-2 Fair 3-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 80–84

Jockey J. Rosario · Trainer T. Yakteen · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	SA	1m T	OC 50k	4th/9 -1½L	84	6.1-1	b L	Stdy bit5/16;lacked rm
9/6	DMR	1⅛m T	OC 50k	6th/12 -2¾L	84	8.1-1	b L	Ins;3-4wd;angled out
8/9	DMR	1m T	OC 50k	7th/11 -3¼L	80	1.9-1	b L	2w;angled out into str

Case: Last out 4th/9 -1½L in the OC50000 at SA. Last Brisnet figures 84-84-80. Best at today's distance 87. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Santa Anita. T. Yakteen / J. Rosario.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #5 Strike a Match ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey V. Espinoza · Trainer S. Knapp · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	SA	5½f D	MCL 20kc	Won/9	79	0.6-1	b L	Bpd early;3deep;2w;clr
9/5	DMR	6f D	MSW	5th/6 -5½L	81	2.6-1	b L	Brush st;3-2wd;weaknd

Case: Last out won in the Md20000c at SA. Last Brisnet figures 79-81. 1-for-1 at Santa Anita. S. Knapp / V. Espinoza.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f).

Use #3 Kid Charlemagne ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 ★ Best at 1m dirt: 83 Last out 5th/6 -9½L in the OC50000 at DMR. Last Brisnet figures 82-72-82. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-2 at the distance. S. Williams / J. Spencer. Knock: Off 63 days. Never raced at Santa Anita.

Jockey J. Spencer · Trainer S. Williams · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1m dirt 83 · 63 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	DMR	7f D	OC 50k	5th/6 -9½L	82	7.6-1	b L	2wide; weakened
5/2	OP	1 1/16 D	OC 100k n1x	9th/10 -12L	72	21-1	b L	Trailed; no factor
4/3	OP	1 1/16 D	Clm 50k n2l	2nd/7 -1L	82	3.8-1	b L	Check1st;3p3/8;5p lane

Longshot #6 Fire Mountain ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #5 ► Steady ≡ Steady 77–82

Jockey T. Pereira · Trainer P. Eurton · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	SA	6f D	OC 50k	3rd/6 -3½L	79	14-1	b L	Aim 3deep; weakened
4/5	SA	1m T	Clm 25k n2l	8th/9 -2½L	77	3.1-1	b L	2-3w turns;needed more
3/1	SA	1m T	OC 50k	6th/6 -4L	79	16-1	b L	Lackd room backstr;ins

Case: Last out 3rd in the OC50000 at SA. Last Brisnet figures 79-77-79. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-1 at Santa Anita. P. Eurton / T. Pereira.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #5 · B #1, #2, #6

Angles: #5 Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #5 Lone speed on early pace

R2 Santa Anita Park · Optional Claiming $50,000

3:30 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $35,000 · 5 runners (1 out)3:30 PM · 1m Dirt · 5 runners (1 out)

Official $35K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Palmer BeachR. Gonzalez · S. WilliamsGonzalez · WilliamsB77 72 86▼-4@trip 675-1<1%▼ Down -477 72 86@trip 67B

Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 72 86

Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez 33% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 24 · Trainer Sean Williams 31% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Chaseher 2-1, R7: Grammy's Gal 6-1, R9: Courtside Action 4-1 · Trainer this race: Kid Charlemagne 4-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Goes a mile after running 6½ furlongs last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Steadied early; 3-4wide), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 28 (5F in :58.40), 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/14	DMR	6½f D	OC 50k	3rd/6 -4L	77	26-1	b L	Steadied early;3-4wide
7/19	DMR	7f D	OC 50k	6th/9 -8½L	72	7.1-1	b L	Bobbled/bpd st;climbed
6/14	SA	6f D	OC 50k	3rd/6 -4½L	86	8.6-1	b L	Ins-2w;angld into str

2King StephenRan 1stA. Ayuso · L. PowellAyuso · PowellB70 56 87▼-6↕6-1Fair 8-112%▼ Down -670 56 87 ↕B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–87 · Last 3 figs 70 56 87

Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 6-for-48 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Leonard Powell 30% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Cyclone Claire 7-2, R5: Mubtadaa 8-1, R6: Shop Till You Drop 9-2, R8: Moment Of Valor 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Unrivaled Time 5-1, R10: Cardwell 20-1

60D LAYOFF2/4 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 86 for the next best. Finished 4th in a 6-horse optional claiming race at DMR, beaten 5½ lengths.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled; ins-2wd; wknd), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 14 (4F in :47.00), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/14	DMR	6½f D	OC 50k	4th/6 -5½L	70	12-1	L	Stumbled;ins-2wd;wknd
6/14	SA	6f T	OC 50k n1x	11th/12 -6½L	56	8.2-1	L	3-4wide; no menace
4/25	SA	-6½f T	Alw n1x	4th/7 -3L	87	8.6-1	L	3deep; 5wide into str

3Kid Charlemagne★Ran 5thJ. Spencer · S. WilliamsSpencer · WilliamsA82 72 82▲▲+8@trip 834-1Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +882 72 82@trip 83A★ Best at the trip 833

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 72 82

★ Best at the trip 83

Jockey J P Spencer 14% career · Trainer Sean Williams 31% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Allied Fleet 9-2, R4: Tribalism 8-1, R10: Grazed In A Haze 30-1 · Trainer this race: Palmer Beach 5-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Last out was 5th, 9½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at DMR. Off 63 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Oct 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	DMR	7f D	OC 50k	5th/6 -9½L	82	7.6-1	b L	2wide; weakened
5/2	OP	1 1/16 D	OC 100k n1x	9th/10 -12L	72	21-1	b L	Trailed; no factor
4/3	OP	1 1/16 D	Clm 50k n2l	2nd/7 -1L	82	3.8-1	b L	Check1st;3p3/8;5p lane

4Moonlit SonataRan 2ndJ. Rosario · T. YakteenRosario · YakteenA84 84 80►≡3-2Fair 3-240%► Steady84 84 80 ≡A1

Card model 40% · Fair odds 3-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 80–84 · Last 3 figs 84 84 80

Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Tim Yakteen 30% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 26

Also today · Jockey R4: Unrivaled Time 5-1, R5: Keep Movin' On 12-1, R8: Third Beer 9-2, R9: Blame It On Jack 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Third Beer 9-2, R10: Big Broadcast 30-1

Switches from turf to dirt. Beaten 1½ lengths for 4th in a 9-horse optional claiming race at SA.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 22d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	SA	1m T	OC 50k	4th/9 -1½L	84	6.1-1	b L	Stdy bit5/16;lacked rm
9/6	DMR	1⅛m T	OC 50k	6th/12 -2¾L	84	8.1-1	b L	Ins;3-4wd;angled out
8/9	DMR	1m T	OC 50k	7th/11 -3¼L	80	1.9-1	b L	2w;angled out into str

5Strike a Match▼▲Ran 3rdV. Espinoza · S. KnappEspinoza · KnappA79 813-1Fair 7-223%—79 81A▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 79 81
▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey V Espinoza 35% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career 2-for-33 on dirt this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Training Good 20-1, R10: Divine Kismet 10-1 · Trainer R5: City Exile 15-1, R5: Whiskyginandbrandy 7-2, R8: Jimmy Winkfield 4-1, R9: Fionello 10-1
WON LAST
A step up in company: maiden claiming $20,000 before, optional claiming today. Changes barns, from Mark Glatt to Steve Knapp.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 SA 5½f D MCL 20kc Won/9 79 0.6-1 b L Bpd early;3deep;2w;clr
9/5 DMR 6f D MSW 5th/6 -5½L 81 2.6-1 b L Brush st;3-2wd;weaknd

6Fire MountainLSRan 4thT. Pereira · P. EurtonPereira · EurtonB79 77 79►≡8-1Fair 8-110%► Steady79 77 79 ≡BLS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–82 · Last 3 figs 79 77 79

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career 7-for-36 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Peter Eurton 35% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Whiskyginandbrandy 7-2, R7: Back Burn 4-1, R8: Got'm Cot'm 5-1, R9: Fionello 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Moment Of Valor 10-1

CLASS UP

A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. Worked 3F in :35.80 on Aug 15, 2nd of 33 at the distance.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 36d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	SA	6f D	OC 50k	3rd/6 -3½L	79	14-1	b L	Aim 3deep; weakened
4/5	SA	1m T	Clm 25k n2l	8th/9 -2½L	77	3.1-1	b L	2-3w turns;needed more
3/1	SA	1m T	OC 50k	6th/6 -4L	79	16-1	b L	Lackd room backstr;ins

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #5, #1, #3.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Moonlit Sonata, finished 2nd.

1st2King StephenWin$16.40Place$3.80Show$2.40Our #4

2nd4Moonlit SonataWin—Place$2.20Show$2.10Our #1

3rd5Strike A MatchWin—Place—Show$2.80Our #2

4th6Fire MountainOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$35,000

Post

3:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 40%

Claiming $50,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.4

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Moonlit Sonata (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-2). Recent figures: 84 · 84 · 80. Backup is #5 Strike A Match at 3-1. Use #3 Kid Charlemagne in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Moonlit Sonata ran 2nd · King Stephen won (our #4)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#4 MOONLIT SONATA	2nd
#2	#5 STRIKE A MATCH	3rd
#3	#3 KID CHARLEMAGNE	5th
#4	#2 KING STEPHEN	1st
#5	#6 FIRE MOUNTAIN	4th

Actual finish

1st	#2 King Stephen	our #4
2nd	#4 Moonlit Sonata	our #1
3rd	#5 Strike a Match	our #2
4th	#6 Fire Mountain	our #5
5th	#3 Kid Charlemagne	our #3

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 MOONLIT SONATA (3-2) — our number agrees.
#4 MOONLIT SONATA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (35.5% to their 31.5%).
#5 STRIKE A MATCH — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 23.2%, they've got 19.7%.
#3 KID CHARLEMAGNE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 18.1%, they've got 15.7%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#5 STRIKE A MATCH — we make it 23.2%, the morning line works out to 19.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#3 KID CHARLEMAGNE — we make it 18.1%, the morning line works out to 15.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 FIRE MOUNTAIN (8-1) — our fair 10.3% is above the morning line's 8.7%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Strike A Match; pressure from #1 Palmer Beach, #3 Kid Charlemagne; the shape helps #1 Palmer Beach, #3 Kid Charlemagne, #4 Moonlit Sonata; and works against #5 Strike A Match.

Lead

5Strike A Match97

Press

1Palmer Beach883Kid Charlemagne84

Stalk

4Moonlit Sonata82

6Fire Mountain942King Stephen86

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Strike A Match

Palmer Beach

Kid Charlemagne

Moonlit Sonata

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Fire Mountain

King Stephen

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Bet types

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