Pick sheet

Race 76:03 PM Md Sp WtLate Pick 4 starts

6.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Back Burn, is 20% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #7 Back Burn ML 4-1 Fair 4-1 Model #1

Jockey T. Pereira · Trainer V. Brinkerhoff · Debut

First start. By Connect out of Watch Me Burn (Hold Me Back)

Trainer V. Brinkerhoff: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 19% in the money (36 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 21% in the money (28 starts) · Maiden special weights: 4% wins, 30% in the money (107 starts)

Jockey T. Pereira in sprints: 31 wins from 234 (13%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	SA	3f	:36.60	handily	2/15
10/17	SA	5f	:59.60	handily	4/60
10/10	SA	5f	1:00.20	handily	5/70	from gate
10/4	SA	5f	:59.40	handily	5/62	from gate
9/28	SA	5f	1:00.20	handily	11/53

Case: First career start. V. Brinkerhoff / T. Pereira.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Contender #4 Prospect of Love ML 6-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey H. Berrios · Trainer B. Baffert · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6f D	MSW	6th/8 -7½L	59	2.4-1	b	3-5-3wide; weakened
9/6	DMR	6f D	MSW	2nd/8 -5L	75	2.4-1	b	Stmbl;ins-3w;best rest

Case: Last out 6th/8 -7½L in the fMdSpWt at SA. Last Brisnet figures 59-75. 0-for-1 at Santa Anita. B. Baffert / H. Berrios.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f).

Use #3 Vino Vino Vino ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86 ▲ Lone speed on early pace Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at SA. Last Brisnet figures 72-67-75. 0-for-1 at Santa Anita. D. O'Neill / K. Frey. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f).

Jockey K. Frey · Trainer D. O'Neill · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	SA	6f D	MSW	2nd/8 -2L	72	7.5-1	Bit tight1/2; ins-2wd
9/18	LRC	5½f D	MSW	2nd/6 -1L	67	8.4-1	Duel2p;ovrtkn;game2nd
8/28	DMR	5f T	MSW	6th/8 -2½L	75	6.3-1	Vie ins;chsd ins;flatn

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #6 · B #2, #5 · ? #1, #7, #8 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #3 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #3 Lone speed on early pace · #4 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #5 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #6 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86

R7 Santa Anita Park · Maiden Special Weight

6:03 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $65,000 · 7 runners (1 out)6:03 PM · 6½f Dirt · 7 runners (1 out)

Official $65K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Magic WorldLSRan 6thK. Kimura · H. PalmaKimura · Palma?8-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?LS
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Kazushi Kimura 32% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Hector O Palma 33% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Melismatic 6-1, R5: Brother O' Brien 3-1, R6: Ryan's Girl 3-1, R8: Owl 5-1 +1 more
Debut for this Greatest Honour filly, whose dam is Avocado Toast. First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (41 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 7d ago)
Last three races
First start. By Greatest Honour out of Avocado Toast (Big Drama)
Trainer H. Palma: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 39% in the money (41 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 8% wins, 50% in the money (12 starts) · Maiden special weights: 9% wins, 45% in the money (22 starts)
Jockey K. Kimura in sprints: 48 wins from 226 (21%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 SA 5f 1:01.00 handily 26/79
10/16 SA 4f :46.80 handily 4/54
10/9 SA 4f :48.80 handily 26/54
9/30 SA 5f 1:01.60 handily 8/14 from gate
9/21 SA 4f :47.80 handily 11/73
2Grammy's Gal▼Ran 3rdR. Gonzalez · M. RuisGonzalez · RuisB646-1Fair 7-112%—64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez 33% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 24 · Trainer Mick Sr Ruis 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Palmer Beach 5-1, R3: Chaseher 2-1, R9: Courtside Action 4-1
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Beaten 10 lengths for 5th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at DMR. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden special weight is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/22 DMR 5½f D MSW 5th/10 -10L 64 44-1 Bit slow;bit tight 3/8
3Vino Vino Vino▼▲Ran 2ndK. Frey · D. O'NeillFrey · O'NeillA72 67 75►5-1Fair 5-117%► Steady72 67 75A▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace3
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 72 67 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career ★ 10-for-39 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 24 · Trainer Doug O'Neill 34% career ★ 6-for-20 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 26
Also today · Jockey R3: Lovely Maya 20-1, R4: Proletariat 3-5, R5: Crypto Ride 20-1, R8: Kerry Gold 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Lovely Maya 20-1, R6: My Kat 8-1, this race: I Know Nothing 12-1
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 75, with 74 next best. Kyle Frey takes over from E Jaramillo in the saddle.
PACE HELPS Few horses want the lead, and this one can take it cheaply.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 80d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 SA 6f D MSW 2nd/8 -2L 72 7.5-1 Bit tight1/2; ins-2wd
9/18 LRC 5½f D MSW 2nd/6 -1L 67 8.4-1 Duel2p;ovrtkn;game2nd
8/28 DMR 5f T MSW 6th/8 -2½L 75 6.3-1 Vie ins;chsd ins;flatn
4Prospect of Love▼Ran 7thH. Berrios · B. BaffertBerrios · BaffertA59 756-1Fair 9-219%—59 75A▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 862
Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 59 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Platinum Groove 2-1, R3: Awsome Amy 9-5, R5: Oobubbakakayo 20-1, R8: Miles Finch 15-1 +1 more
Tops the field on speed figures, a 75 against 74 for the next best. Jockey switch: Juan J Hernandez last out, Hector Isaac Berrios today.
PACE CHALLENGE With the front end asleep, a closer has nothing to run down.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 SA 6f D MSW 6th/8 -7½L 59 2.4-1 b 3-5-3wide; weakened
9/6 DMR 6f D MSW 2nd/8 -5L 75 2.4-1 b Stmbl;ins-3w;best rest
5Double D Lite▼Ran 5thM. Smith · M. PuypeSmith · PuypeB639-2Fair 6-115%—63B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 63
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey M E Smith 31% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Mike Puype 27% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Trainer R8: The G M 30-1, R10: Dont Short Ur Self 30-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Off 57 days since the last start. 5th last time, 9½ lengths back, in a field of 9.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Off slw; green3/8; 3-2wd), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 DMR 6f D rMoc150000 5th/9 -9½L 63 5.4-1 Off slw;green3/8;3-2wd

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	SA	5f	1:01.00	handily	26/79
10/16	SA	4f	:46.80	handily	4/54
10/9	SA	4f	:48.80	handily	26/54
9/30	SA	5f	1:01.60	handily	8/14	from gate
9/21	SA	4f	:47.80	handily	11/73

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	DMR	5½f D	MSW	5th/10 -10L	64	44-1		Bit slow;bit tight 3/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	DMR	6f D	rMoc150000	5th/9 -9½L	63	5.4-1		Off slw;green3/8;3-2wd

6I Know Nothing▼Ran 4thE. Maldonado · D. O'NeillMaldonado · O'NeillA74 61 70▲▲+1012-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best74 61 70A▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 74 61 70

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey E Maldonado 36% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Doug O'Neill 34% career ★ 6-for-20 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 26 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: My Kat 8-1 · Trainer R3: Lovely Maya 20-1, R6: My Kat 8-1, this race: Vino Vino Vino 5-1

Moves up from optional claiming to maiden special weight. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Not much pace to run at, which is a problem for a closer.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 31 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	SA	6f D	OC 50k	2nd/7 -9½L	74	9.0-1		Bp st;ins-4w;up for2nd
8/28	DMR	6f D	frMoc65000	7th/7 -11L	61	3.1-1	b	Brk in bit;2-4w;no bid
8/7	DMR	5½f D	Moc65000	3rd/10 -5L	70	5.2-1		Ins;weaved str;up 3rd

7Back BurnRan 1stT. Pereira · V. BrinkerhoffPereira · Brinkerhoff?4-1Fair 4-120%—Debut?1
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career 7-for-36 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Val Brinkerhoff 22% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Fire Mountain 8-1, R5: Whiskyginandbrandy 7-2, R8: Got'm Cot'm 5-1, R9: Fionello 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Got'm Cot'm 5-1, R9: Italio 20-1
Debut for a trainer who is 0% with first-timers, over 36 starts. Worked 3F in :36.60 on Oct 24, 2nd fastest of 15 that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago
Last three races
First start. By Connect out of Watch Me Burn (Hold Me Back)
Trainer V. Brinkerhoff: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 19% in the money (36 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 21% in the money (28 starts) · Maiden special weights: 4% wins, 30% in the money (107 starts)
Jockey T. Pereira in sprints: 31 wins from 234 (13%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 SA 3f :36.60 handily 2/15
10/17 SA 5f :59.60 handily 4/60
10/10 SA 5f 1:00.20 handily 5/70 from gate
10/4 SA 5f :59.40 handily 5/62 from gate
9/28 SA 5f 1:00.20 handily 11/53
8Dragon ReignJ. Hernandez · M. McCarthyHernandez · McCarthy?3-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-35 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Michael W McCarthy 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 26
Also today · Jockey R1: Darn Good Dancer 3-2, R4: Path To Power 6-1, R5: Doo Wop Don 5-2, R8: Jimmy Winkfield 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Tribalism 8-1
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 25). Unraced so far; the pedigree is Constitution out of Ce Ce.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
First start. By Constitution out of Ce Ce (Elusive Quality)
Trainer M. McCarthy: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 33% in the money (242 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 33% in the money (216 starts) · Maiden special weights: 13% wins, 37% in the money (675 starts)
Jockey J. Hernandez in sprints: 42 wins from 140 (30%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 SA 4f :48.20 handily 25/111 from gate
10/18 SA 5f 1:00.60 handily 17/46
10/9 SA 4f :48.00 handily 7/54 from gate
10/2 SA 5f 1:01.20 handily 11/26
9/18 SA 5f 1:01.80 handily 19/27

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	SA	4f	:48.20	handily	25/111	from gate
10/18	SA	5f	1:00.60	handily	17/46
10/9	SA	4f	:48.00	handily	7/54	from gate
10/2	SA	5f	1:01.20	handily	11/26
9/18	SA	5f	1:01.80	handily	19/27

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #7 Back Burn, won.

1st7Back BurnWin$7.00Place$4.20Show$3.00Our #1

2nd3Vino Vino VinoWin—Place$3.40Show$2.40Our #3

3rd2Grammy's GalWin—Place—Show$5.00Our #5

4th6I Know NothingOur #7

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 7

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$65,000

Post

6:03 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#7 · 20%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 73.11

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Back Burn (a tactical type, M/L 4-1). Backup is #4 Prospect Of Love at 6-1. Use #3 Vino Vino Vino in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Back Burn won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 7th, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#7 BACK BURN	1st
#2	#4 PROSPECT OF LOVE	7th
#3	#3 VINO VINO VINO	2nd
#4	#5 DOUBLE D LITE	5th
#5	#2 GRAMMY'S GAL	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#7 Back Burn	our #1
2nd	#3 Vino Vino Vino	our #3
3rd	#2 Grammy's Gal	our #5
4th	#6 I Know Nothing	our #7
5th	#5 Double D Lite	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 DRAGON REIGN (3-1) — our number has it ranked #8.
#7 BACK BURN — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.8%, they've got 15.7%.
#3 VINO VINO VINO — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.2%, they've got 13.1%.
#5 DOUBLE D LITE — our #4 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.5%, they've got 14.3%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 BACK BURN — we make it 19.8%, the morning line works out to 15.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#3 VINO VINO VINO — we make it 17.2%, the morning line works out to 13.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#5 DOUBLE D LITE — we make it 16.5%, the morning line works out to 14.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 PROSPECT OF LOVE — we make it 15.9%, the morning line works out to 11.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 MAGIC WORLD (8-1) — our fair 10.4% is above the morning line's 8.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Vino Vino Vino; the shape helps #3 Vino Vino Vino; and works against #1 Magic World, #2 Grammy's Gal, #4 Prospect Of Love.

Lead

none

Press

3Vino Vino Vino92

Stalk

none

4Prospect Of Love846I Know Nothing80

No style yet

5Double D Lite852Grammy's Gal841Magic World7Back Burn8Dragon Reign

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Vino Vino Vino

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Prospect Of Love

I Know Nothing

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Bet types

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