Pick sheet

Race 510:03 PM OClm 50000n1x

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Van Gogh Style, is 25% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Van Gogh Style ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best ▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey T. Baze · Trainer S. McCarthy · Dist 2: 1-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 83 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6½f D	sOC50000n1x	3rd/8 -1L	92	9.5-1	L	Bid2w5/16;no final kck
9/4	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	8th/12 -4¼L	79	40-1	L	Vie3deep;btwn5/16;fold
8/13	DMR	6f D	sMdSpWt	Won/11	83	4.1-1	L	Ins;shook free upper

Case: Last out 3rd in the sOC50000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 92-79-83. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-2 at the distance. S. McCarthy / T. Baze.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six.

Contender #7 King's Ride ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 79–89

Jockey J. Hernandez · Trainer C. Lewis · Dist 2: 1-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 85 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	4th/8 -6L	85	4.3-1	b L	Ins-2w;outkickd for3rd
9/5	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	5th/10 -2½L	84	7.2-1	b L	Bpd st;check btwn late
7/31	DMR	7f D	sRealGdDelB150k	9th/11 -8½L	79	8.9-1	b	Ins-2wd; no menace

Case: Last out 4th/8 -6L in the sOC20000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 85-84-79. Best at today's distance 85. 1-for-2 at the distance. C. Lewis / J. Hernandez.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six.

Use #3 Maker and Sons ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best ▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88 Last out 2nd in the sOC50000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 92-74-79. Best at today's distance 89. 1-for-2 at the distance. P. Capestro / A. Aguilar. Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Aguilar · Trainer P. Capestro · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 89 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6½f D	sOC50000n1x	2nd/8	92	20-1	b L	Met bid; grudgingly
8/14	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	8th/9 -3L	74	32-1	b L	Duel ins;vied turn;wkn
6/15	SA	-6½f T	sAlw69500n1x	6th/10 -8L	79	33-1	b L	Tracked 2wd; no rally

Longshot #1 Marcos Performance ML 15-1 Fair 20-1 Model #7 ▼▼ Big drop -18 ↕ Up and down 69–92 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 92)

Jockey D. Van · Trainer P. Aguirre · Dist 3: 1-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 92 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	1m T	OC 50k	10th/10 -6¼L	69	19-1	b L	Pace inside; gave way
8/7	DMR	6f D	Clm 32k bc	2nd/5 by hd	92	1.1-1	b L	Outsd;flatten;saved2nd
1/9	SA	6f D	OC 50k	Won/5 by hd	89	5.2-1	b L	Bpd st;bid2w;won bob

Case: Last out 10th/10 -6¼L in the OC50000 at SA. Last Brisnet figures 69-92-89. Best at today's distance 92. 1-for-3 at the distance. P. Aguirre / D. Van.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #7 · B #1, #6, #8 · C #4, #5

Angles: #1 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 92) · #2 Last fig 92 at/above par 88 · #2 Lone speed on early pace · #3 Last fig 92 at/above par 88 · #4 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 88 · #5 Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 88 · #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 81)

R5 SWL · Optional Claiming $50,000

10:03 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $67,000 · 8 runners10:03 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $67K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Marcos Performance▼LSD. Van · P. AguirreVan · AguirreB69 92 89▼▼-18↕@trip 9215-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1869 92 89 ↕@trip 92B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 92)LS

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–92 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 92 89

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 92)LS

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Dyke Drayden Van · Trainer Paul Aguirre 22% career

Also today · Jockey R4: The G M 30-1, R6: Dont Short Ur Self 30-1

CLASS UP

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	1m T	OC 50k	10th/10 -6¼L	69	19-1	b L	Pace inside; gave way
8/7	DMR	6f D	Clm 32k bc	2nd/5 by hd	92	1.1-1	b L	Outsd;flatten;saved2nd
1/9	SA	6f D	OC 50k	Won/5 by hd	89	5.2-1	b L	Bpd st;bid2w;won bob

2Van Gogh Style▲▲T. Baze · S. McCarthyBaze · McCarthyA92 79 83▲▲+11@trip 835-2Fair 3-125%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best92 79 83@trip 83A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 79 83

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey T C Baze 27% career · Trainer Sean McCarthy

Also today · Jockey R4: Frank Bullitt 3-1

CLASS UP

Beaten 1 length for 3rd in an 8-horse optional claiming race at SA. Best recent figure of 92 sits right around the 88 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6½f D	sOC50000n1x	3rd/8 -1L	92	9.5-1	L	Bid2w5/16;no final kck
9/4	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	8th/12 -4¼L	79	40-1	L	Vie3deep;btwn5/16;fold
8/13	DMR	6f D	sMdSpWt	Won/11	83	4.1-1	L	Ins;shook free upper

3Maker and Sons▲A. Aguilar · P. CapestroAguilar · CapestroA92 74 79▲▲+11@trip 897-2Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best92 74 79@trip 89A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 883

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 74 79

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 88

Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career · Trainer Paula S Capestro 21% career

CLASS UP

Jockey switch: E Maldonado last out, Armando Aguilar today. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6½f D	sOC50000n1x	2nd/8	92	20-1	b L	Met bid; grudgingly
8/14	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	8th/9 -3L	74	32-1	b L	Duel ins;vied turn;wkn
6/15	SA	-6½f T	sAlw69500n1x	6th/10 -8L	79	33-1	b L	Tracked 2wd; no rally

4Italio▼C. Herrera · V. BrinkerhoffHerrera · BrinkerhoffC80 75 62▲▲+8@trip 7920-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best80 75 62@trip 79C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 88

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 75 62

▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 88

Jockey Cristobal Herrera 27% career · Trainer Val Brinkerhoff 22% career

Also today · Trainer R4: Got'm Cot'm 5-1

180D+ LAYOFFCLASS UP4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Freshened 330 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. New trainer: Marcia Stortz had it last time, Val Brinkerhoff now.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
12/6	LRC	5½f D	OC 50k	Won/6	80	5.6-1	b	Met bids; held gamely
11/23	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	7th/7 -3¼L	75	39-1	b	Stalked 2-3wd;weakened
10/31	DMR	1m T	TBAftrcAl Stk	8th/8 -11L	62	98-1	b	2wide;3-2wide;empty

5Blame It on Jack▼J. Rosario · P. MillerRosario · MillerC82 70@trip 708-1Fair 10-19%—82 70@trip 70C▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 88
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 70
▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 88
Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career · Trainer Peter Miller 30% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Third Beer 9-2, R6: Rosa's Miracle 3-1 · Trainer R6: Tiz The Truth 12-1
180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Back after 198 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 0)
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Led inside; drew away.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 7 (5F in :59.00), 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
4/17 SA 1m D sMdSpWt Won/5 82 0.9-1 b L Led inside; drew away
4/2 SA 6f D sMdSpWt 3rd/7 -5L 70 7.7-1 b L Reluctant;off slow;2wd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/17	SA	1m D	sMdSpWt	Won/5	82	0.9-1	b L	Led inside; drew away
4/2	SA	6f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/7 -5L	70	7.7-1	b L	Reluctant;off slow;2wd

6Courtside ActionR. Gonzalez · A. MathisGonzalez · MathisB82 83 34▲▲+11↕@trip 944-1Fair 6-113%▲▲ Big jump +1182 83 34 ↕@trip 94B

Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–96 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 83 34

Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Andy Mathis 38% career

Switches from turf to dirt. Tops the field on speed figures, a 96 against 92 for the next best.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	4th/9	82	2.9-1	b L	Bpd3w3/8;bid2w;outkckd
9/5	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	6th/10 -4½L	83	6.9-1	b L	3-2w;angled widest str
7/31	DMR	7f D	sRealGdDelB150k	11th/11 -17L	34	4.4-1	b	Bp early;drop bck;easd

7King's RideJ. Hernandez · C. LewisHernandez · LewisA85 84 79►≡@trip 853-1Fair 7-221%► Steady85 84 79 ≡@trip 85A2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–89 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 84 79

Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Craig A Lewis 26% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Jimmy Winkfield 4-1, R6: Take Revenge 6-1 · Trainer R6: Take Revenge 6-1

Has moved up each time out, 79 to 84 to 85. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	4th/8 -6L	85	4.3-1	b L	Ins-2w;outkickd for3rd
9/5	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	5th/10 -2½L	84	7.2-1	b L	Bpd st;check btwn late
7/31	DMR	7f D	sRealGdDelB150k	9th/11 -8½L	79	8.9-1	b	Ins-2wd; no menace

8Fionello▼T. Pereira · S. KnappPereira · KnappB72 81 80▼▼-9@trip 8110-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -972 81 80@trip 81B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 81)

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 81 80

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 81)

Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Got'm Cot'm 5-1, R6: Her Strut 20-1 · Trainer R4: Jimmy Winkfield 4-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 25 (:46.00), a sign it is training forwardly. Worked 5F in :59.80 on Sep 23, 2nd of 12 at the distance.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Checked hard early), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6½f D	sOC50000n1x	8th/8 -9½L	72	3.7-1	b L	Checked hard early
7/31	DMR	7f D	sRealGdDelB150k	8th/11 -9½L	81	41-1	b	Bpd btw st;5w into str
6/27	LRC	1⅛m D	LosAlDby Stk	3rd/5 -3½L	80	5.1-1	b	Squeezed early;4w;2-5w

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SWL · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$67,000

Post

10:03 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 25%

Claiming $50,000, for 3-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Van Gogh Style (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 92 · 79 · 83. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 King's Ride at 3-1. Use #3 Maker And Sons in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 VAN GOGH STYLE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#2 VAN GOGH STYLE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.2% to their 22.5%).
#7 KING'S RIDE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 19.7%).
#3 MAKER AND SONS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 17.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Italio; pressure from #3 Maker And Sons, #5 Blame It On Jack; and works against #2 Van Gogh Style, #3 Maker And Sons, #4 Italio.

Lead

4Italio923Maker And Sons895Blame It On Jack892Van Gogh Style86

Press

7King's Ride906Courtside Action891Marcos Performance81

Stalk

8Fionello78

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Italio

King's Ride

Maker And Sons

Blame It On Jack

Courtside Action

Van Gogh Style

Marcos Performance

Fionello

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Blame It On Jack

Marcos Performance

Van Gogh Style

Maker And Sons

Fionello

Italio

Courtside Action

King's Ride

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