Pick sheet

Race 610:33 PM Md Sp Wt

6.5F · Turf · 14 entered. Our model's top pick, Seamless Factor, is 36% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Seamless Factor ML 7-5 Fair 9-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig 1st-time blinkers

Jockey H. Berrios · Trainer C. Gaines · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6f T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/10 -½L	77	1.3-1		Crowded past1/2;ins-3w
8/29	DMR	5f T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/10 -1L	70	1.3-1		3wd;tipped out;denied

Case: Last out 2nd in the fsMdSpWt at SA. Last Brisnet figures 77-70. C. Gaines / H. Berrios.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Never raced at Sunset Six.

Contender #7 Rosa's Miracle ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +6 · career best ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey J. Rosario · Trainer J. Sadler · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	3rd/10 -1L	72	2.0-1	b	Outsd;clear7/16;inside
7/30	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 by hd	72	0.6-1	b	Pace;ins;collared 1/8
7/17	DMR	5f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -5½L	60	2.6-1		Green;2-3w;no menace

Case: Last out 3rd in the fsMdSpWt at DMR. Last Brisnet figures 72-72-60. J. Sadler / J. Rosario.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six.

Use #6 Take Revenge ML 6-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best Last out 2nd in the fsMd50000 at SA. Last Brisnet figures 76-50-61. C. Lewis / J. Hernandez. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Never raced at Sunset Six.

Jockey J. Hernandez · Trainer C. Lewis · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	5½f D	fsMd50000	2nd/7 -1L	76	2.2-1	b	2w-ins;bid outsd upper
8/30	DMR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -8¼L	50	8.4-1	b	In range;3-2-4wd;tired
7/18	DMR	5f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -5½L	61	3.4-1		3-4wide; no rally

Longshot #4 Tiz the Truth ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #5

Jockey U. Rispoli · Trainer P. Miller · Debut

First start. By Stanford out of Tiz Fake News (Tiznow)

Trainer P. Miller: 1st-time starters: 7% wins, 34% in the money (143 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 6% wins, 36% in the money (101 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 41% in the money (361 starts)

Jockey U. Rispoli in turf: 44 wins from 196 (22%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/20	SLR	5f	1:00.00	handily	1/3	● bullet from gate
10/8	SLR	5f	1:01.00	handily	3/9
10/2	SLR	4f	:49.20	handily	6/13
9/25	SLR	3f	:37.40	handily	1/1	● bullet
9/2	SLR	5f	1:01.00	handily	1/5	● bullet from gate

Case: First career start. P. Miller / U. Rispoli.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #6 · B #2, #5, #7 · C #9, #11, #12, #13 · ? #4, #8, #10, #14 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #5 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #7 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #9 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #11 Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #12 Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #13 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79

R6 SWL · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

10:33 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $65,000 · 14 runners10:33 PM · 6½f Turf · 14 runners

Upcoming $65K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Divine KismetV. Espinoza · A. GarciaEspinoza · GarciaA77 56 53▲▲+2210-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best77 56 53A
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best · Last 3 figs 77 56 53
Jockey V Espinoza 35% career · Trainer Antonio C Garcia 32% career ★ hot
Owns the highest recent figure here at 77. 3rd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 10.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 SA 6f T fsMdSpWt 3rd/10 -1½L 77 59-1 b 2w-ins;anged out3/16
9/7 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 10th/10 -9L 56 34-1 b Inside;3wide;empty
8/28 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 10th/10 -9¼L 53 34-1 b Inside; empty

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6f T	fsMdSpWt	3rd/10 -1½L	77	59-1	b	2w-ins;anged out3/16
9/7	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	10th/10 -9L	56	34-1	b	Inside;3wide;empty
8/28	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	10th/10 -9¼L	53	34-1	b	Inside; empty

2Sauced UpA. Bautista · F. RondanBautista · RondanB57 73 72▼▼-1415-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1457 73 72B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Last 3 figs 57 73 72

Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career · Trainer Felix Rondan 21% career

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Beaten 19 lengths for 7th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at SA.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/26	SA	6f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/9 -19L	57	7.5-1	3-5 wide to str;no bid
8/30	DMR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/10 -4½L	73	4.0-1	Ins-2w;swung;gained3rd
8/13	DMR	5f T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/9 -2½L	72	9.5-1	Chased inside;2nd best

3Seamless FactorH. Berrios · C. GainesBerrios · GainesA77 707-5Fair 9-536%—77 70A1
Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 77 70
Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career · Trainer Carla Gaines 28% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Miles Finch 15-1
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 77, with 76 next best. Last out was 2nd, ½ length behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at SA.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 SA 6f T fsMdSpWt 2nd/10 -½L 77 1.3-1 Crowded past1/2;ins-3w
8/29 DMR 5f T fsMdSpWt 2nd/10 -1L 70 1.3-1 3wd;tipped out;denied

4Tiz the TruthLSU. Rispoli · P. MillerRispoli · Miller?12-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Umberto Rispoli 37% career · Trainer Peter Miller 30% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Grey's Boy 8-1 · Trainer R5: Blame It On Jack 8-1

First career start, by Stanford out of Tiz Fake News. This barn has 143 first-time starters on record and wins 7% of them.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Sep 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

Last three races

First start. By Stanford out of Tiz Fake News (Tiznow)

Jockey U. Rispoli in turf: 44 wins from 196 (22%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/20	SLR	5f	1:00.00	handily	1/3	● bullet from gate
10/8	SLR	5f	1:01.00	handily	3/9
10/2	SLR	4f	:49.20	handily	6/13
9/25	SLR	3f	:37.40	handily	1/1	● bullet
9/2	SLR	5f	1:01.00	handily	1/5	● bullet from gate

5Grazed in a Haze▼J. Spencer · B. GalvinSpencer · GalvinB69 6030-1Fair 50-12%—69 60B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 69 60
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey J P Spencer 14% career · Trainer Brendan W Galvin 20% career
Gets a new rider, J P Spencer replacing Dyke Drayden Van. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 69 against a 79 par.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 9 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 SA 6f T fsMdSpWt 6th/10 -1½L 69 18-1 b Bid 2wd turn;flattened
8/29 DMR 5f T fsMdSpWt 4th/10 -3L 60 5.9-1 b Bit green;ins-5w;drftd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	6f T	fsMdSpWt	6th/10 -1½L	69	18-1	b	Bid 2wd turn;flattened
8/29	DMR	5f T	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -3L	60	5.9-1	b	Bit green;ins-5w;drftd

6Take RevengeJ. Hernandez · C. LewisHernandez · LewisA76 50 61▲▲+206-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best76 50 61A3

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · Last 3 figs 76 50 61

Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Craig A Lewis 26% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Jimmy Winkfield 4-1, R5: King's Ride 3-1 · Trainer R5: King's Ride 3-1

Moves up from maiden claiming $50,000 to maiden special weight. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	5½f D	fsMd50000	2nd/7 -1L	76	2.2-1	b	2w-ins;bid outsd upper
8/30	DMR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -8¼L	50	8.4-1	b	In range;3-2-4wd;tired
7/18	DMR	5f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -5½L	61	3.4-1		3-4wide; no rally

7Rosa's Miracle▼J. Rosario · J. SadlerRosario · SadlerB72 72 60▲+63-1Fair 9-219%▲ Up +6 · career best72 72 60B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 792

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 72 72 60

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career · Trainer John W Sadler 34% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Third Beer 9-2, R5: Blame It On Jack 8-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Shortens up to 6½ furlongs after going a mile. Off 55 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	3rd/10 -1L	72	2.0-1	b	Outsd;clear7/16;inside
7/30	DMR	1m T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 by hd	72	0.6-1	b	Pace;ins;collared 1/8
7/17	DMR	5f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -5½L	60	2.6-1		Green;2-3w;no menace

8CardwellA. Ayuso · L. PowellAyuso · Powell?20-1Fair 30-13%—Debut?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career · Trainer Leonard Powell 30% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Moment Of Valor 10-1
Debut for a trainer who is 2% with first-timers, over 56 starts. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 2.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 9d ago
Last three races
First start. By Grazen out of Icy Josie (Frosted)
Trainer L. Powell: 1st-time starters: 2% wins, 12% in the money (56 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 10% in the money (31 starts) · Maiden special weights: 14% wins, 44% in the money (168 starts)
Jockey A. Ayuso in turf: 42 wins from 376 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 SA 4f :48.00 handily 5/20
10/16 SA 5f 1:00.20 handily 15/37
10/9 SA 5f 1:02.00 handily 26/39
10/2 SA 4f :47.80 handily 13/48 from gate
9/25 SA 5f 1:01.00 handily 19/49

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	SA	4f	:48.00	handily	5/20
10/16	SA	5f	1:00.20	handily	15/37
10/9	SA	5f	1:02.00	handily	26/39
10/2	SA	4f	:47.80	handily	13/48	from gate
9/25	SA	5f	1:01.00	handily	19/49

9Her Strut▼T. Pereira · G. PapaprodromouPereira · PapaprodromouC55 54 64▼-720-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -755 54 64C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 55 54 64

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career · Trainer George Papaprodromou 34% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Got'm Cot'm 5-1, R5: Fionello 10-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Finished 8th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at SA, beaten 13 lengths.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SA	6f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/9 -13L	55	22-1	b	2w;btwn; weakened
8/30	DMR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/10 -4½L	54	4.9-1	b	Led;overtakn1/4;folded
8/8	DMR	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/9 -4L	64	5.9-1		3-4wide; weakened

10Tiz LizK. Frey · A. BarbaFrey · Barba?30-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career · Trainer Alexis Barba 16% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Kerry Gold 30-1
Before this first start, worked 4F in :49.00 on Oct 9, 2nd fastest of 8 that morning. Unraced so far; the pedigree is Oscar Nominated out of Tizalwaysomething.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 16d back)
Last three races
First start. By Oscar Nominated out of Tizalwaysomething (Tiznow)
Trainer A. Barba: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (4 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 0% in the money (4 starts) · Maiden special weights: 10% wins, 30% in the money (20 starts)
Jockey K. Frey in turf: 16 wins from 195 (8%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/16 SA 5f 1:02.00 handily 5/5
10/9 SA 4f :49.00 handily 2/8
10/1 SA 4f :49.80 handily 5/8
9/24 SA 3f :36.00 handily 1/2 ● bullet
9/16 SA 3f :38.40 handily 1/2 ● bullet
11Dont Short Ur Self▼D. Van · M. PuypeVan · PuypeC47 5630-1Fair 50-12%—47 56C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 47 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Dyke Drayden Van · Trainer Mike Puype 27% career
Also today · Jockey R4: The G M 30-1, R5: Marcos Performance 15-1 · Trainer R4: The G M 30-1
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Raises its level, maiden claiming $50,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Dyke Drayden Van takes over from Kazushi Kimura in the saddle.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/20 DMR 5½f D fsMd50000 8th/9 -7L 47 7.5-1 b Vie btwn;brsh/tight3/8
7/23 DMR 5f D fsMd50000c 7th/10 -10L 56 1.2-1 b Off slow;2w;angled5wd

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/16	SA	5f	1:02.00	handily	5/5
10/9	SA	4f	:49.00	handily	2/8
10/1	SA	4f	:49.80	handily	5/8
9/24	SA	3f	:36.00	handily	1/2	● bullet
9/16	SA	3f	:38.40	handily	1/2	● bullet

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/20	DMR	5½f D	fsMd50000	8th/9 -7L	47	7.5-1	b	Vie btwn;brsh/tight3/8
7/23	DMR	5f D	fsMd50000c	7th/10 -10L	56	1.2-1	b	Off slow;2w;angled5wd

12She's My Star▼F. Orduna-Rojas · E. AlvarezOrduna-Rojas · AlvarezC36 50 39▼▼-13↕30-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1336 50 39 ↕C▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–58 · Last 3 figs 36 50 39

▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Francisco Orduna-Rojas 24% career · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career

CLASS UP

A step up in company: maiden claiming $50,000 before, maiden special weight today. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 17d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	LRC	5½f D	fsMd50000	8th/8 -15L	36	76-1	b	3wide; no menace
8/9	DMR	5f D	fsMd20000	8th/10 -7½L	50	45-1	b	Chased ins-2wd;faded
7/23	DMR	5f D	fsMd50000	9th/10 -16L	39	31-1	b	5wide-inside;no menace

13Big Broadcast▼K. Kimura · T. YakteenKimura · YakteenC63 61 67►30-1Fair 99-11%► Steady63 61 67C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 63 61 67

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Kazushi Kimura 32% career · Trainer Tim Yakteen 30% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Owl 5-1 · Trainer R4: Third Beer 9-2

CLASS UP

Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 30d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	SA	1m D	MCL 32k	3rd/9 -8½L	63	6.8-1	b	Ins-2wd;2-3wd;held 3rd
9/4	DMR	5½f D	fsMd20000	3rd/9 -7½L	61	2.8-1	b	Bpd/steadied st;2-4wd
8/9	DMR	5f D	fsMd20000	3rd/10 -4½L	67	2.8-1	b	2-3wide; mild rally

14EurydiceA. Escobedo · R. HansonEscobedo · Hanson?12-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Adrian Escobedo 36% career · Trainer Ryan Hanson 37% career ★ hot
Also today · Trainer R4: Going Nowhere 30-1
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 24). With 11 works on record, the first on Apr 30.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago
Last three races
First start. By Cistron out of Calm Down Lady (Stormy Atlantic)
Trainer R. Hanson: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 36% in the money (91 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 34% in the money (64 starts) · Maiden special weights: 11% wins, 32% in the money (204 starts)
Jockey A. Escobedo in turf: 4 wins from 47 (9%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 SA 5f 1:00.80 handily 14/58 from gate
10/17 SA 5f 1:00.20 handily 13/60 from gate
10/9 SA 5f 1:00.80 handily 11/39 from gate
10/1 SA 5f 1:00.40 handily 2/21 from gate
9/23 SA 4f :47.00 handily 2/8

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	SA	5f	1:00.80	handily	14/58	from gate
10/17	SA	5f	1:00.20	handily	13/60	from gate
10/9	SA	5f	1:00.80	handily	11/39	from gate
10/1	SA	5f	1:00.40	handily	2/21	from gate
9/23	SA	4f	:47.00	handily	2/8

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SWL · RACE 6

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

14 runners

Purse

$65,000

Post

10:33 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 36%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Seamless Factor (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 77 · 70. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Rosa's Miracle at 3-1. Use #6 Take Revenge in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 SEAMLESS FACTOR (7-5) — our number agrees.
#3 SEAMLESS FACTOR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.5% to their 30.3%).
#7 ROSA'S MIRACLE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 18.2%).
#6 TAKE REVENGE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (10.9% to their 10.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Rosa's Miracle; pressure from #11 Dont Short Ur Self, #9 Her Strut; the shape helps #3 Seamless Factor, #5 Grazed In A Haze, #6 Take Revenge; and works against #4 Tiz The Truth, #7 Rosa's Miracle, #8 Cardwell.

Lead

7Rosa's Miracle9911Dont Short Ur Self95

Press

9Her Strut965Grazed In A Haze91

Stalk

6Take Revenge903Seamless Factor86

13Big Broadcast801Divine Kismet782Sauced Up77

No style yet

12She's My Star844Tiz The Truth8Cardwell10Tiz Liz14Eurydice

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Rosa's Miracle

Her Strut

Dont Short Ur Self

Grazed In A Haze

Take Revenge

Seamless Factor

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Big Broadcast

Divine Kismet

Sauced Up

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