Pick sheet

Race 49:33 PM Alw 67000n1x

6.5F · Turf · 13 entered. Our model's top pick, Frank Bullitt, is 21% to win (morning line implies 17%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 Frank Bullitt ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #1 ► Steady ▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87

Jockey T. Baze · Trainer D. Winick · Dist 4: 0-4-0 · best fig at 6½f turf 87 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	2nd/8	90	4.0-1	b L	Duel ins;clear;nailed
8/14	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	2nd/9 -1½L	87	1.5-1	b L	Ins-2w;tip3w;game btwn
7/17	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	Won/8	96	6.0-1	b L	Brk out;outsd;cleared

Case: Last out 2nd in the sOC20000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 90-87-96. Best at today's distance 96. 0-for-4 at the distance. D. Winick / T. Baze.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six. 0-for-4 at the distance.

Contender #2 Jimmy Winkfield ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best ▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 87

Jockey J. Hernandez · Trainer S. Knapp · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6½f turf 76 · 169 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/16	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	3rd/7 -1½L	93	7.3-1	b L	Ins;rallied btwn late
4/26	SA	6f T	sMdSpWt	Won/10 by 1¾	73	1.2-1	b L	Off slow;2-3wd;rallied
3/28	SA	6½f T	sMdSpWt	3rd/9 -3½L	76	4.2-1	b L	Off slow;2-4wd;kept on

Case: Last out 3rd in the sOC20000n1x at SA. Last Brisnet figures 93-73-76. Best at today's distance 76. 0-for-1 at the distance. S. Knapp / J. Hernandez.

Knock: Off 169 days. Never raced at Sunset Six.

Use #10 Third Beer ML 9-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +5 · career best ≡ Steady 80–88 ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 87 Last out 4th/10 -2½L in the sSnowChiefB125k at SA. Last Brisnet figures 88-83-85. T. Yakteen / J. Rosario. Knock: Off 162 days. Never raced at Sunset Six.

Jockey J. Rosario · Trainer T. Yakteen · 162 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/23	SA	1⅛m T	sSnowChiefB125k	4th/10 -2½L	88	8.0-1	b	Ins;angled1/8;edgd3rd
4/2	SA	1m T	OC 80k n1x	4th/5 -3L	83	3.6-1	b L	Ins;bid3deep;flattened
2/21	SA	1m T	sOC50000n1x	Won/7 by 1½	85	1.6-1	b L	2w-ins;shftd/bp midstr

Longshot #3 Miles Finch ML 15-1 Fair 20-1 Model #8 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 81–88

Jockey H. Berrios · Trainer J. Bonde · Dist 2: 0-1-0 · best fig at 6½f turf 83 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	SA	6½f T	Clm 25k n2lc	2nd/8 -2L	81	0.9-1	b L	Bobbld/bpd hard st;ins
9/6	DMR	5f T	OC 50k	7th/10 -3¼L	82	11-1	b L	2-3w;bore out badly1/4
8/1	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	7th/11 -4½L	81	11-1	b L	4-5wide; no rally

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm25000n2lc at SA. Last Brisnet figures 81-82-81. Best at today's distance 83. 0-for-2 at the distance. J. Bonde / H. Berrios.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #10, #13 · B #2, #5, #11 · C #1, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9, #12

Angles: #2 Last fig 93 at/above par 87 · #4 Last fig 90 at/above par 87 · #6 Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87 · #8 Last fig 89 at/above par 87 · #8 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #10 Last fig 88 at/above par 87 · #13 Last fig 95 at/above par 87

R4 SWL · State-Bred Allowance · $67,000 purse

9:33 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $67,000 · 13 runners9:33 PM · 6½f Turf · 13 runners

Upcoming $67K · State-Bred Allowance · $67,000 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Kerry GoldK. Frey · D. AzcarateFrey · AzcarateC81 78 76▲+3≡30-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +381 78 76 ≡C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 76–81 · Last 3 figs 81 78 76

Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career · Trainer Dan Azcarate 13% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Tiz Liz 30-1

Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 6d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m T	sOC20000n1x	5th/11 -2L	81	60-1	L	3wd;loomed upper
9/4	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	9th/12 -9½L	78	67-1	L	Chased 5deep;weakened
8/16	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	4th/8 -3L	76	21-1	L	3deep; mild response

2Jimmy Winkfield▲J. Hernandez · S. KnappHernandez · KnappB93 73 76▲▲+18@trip 764-1Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best93 73 76@trip 76B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 872

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 73 76

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 87

Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career

Also today · Jockey R5: King's Ride 3-1, R6: Take Revenge 6-1 · Trainer R5: Fionello 10-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

169 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Beaten 1½ lengths for 3rd in a 7-horse optional claiming race at SA.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/16	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	3rd/7 -1½L	93	7.3-1	b L	Ins;rallied btwn late
4/26	SA	6f T	sMdSpWt	Won/10 by 1¾	73	1.2-1	b L	Off slow;2-3wd;rallied
3/28	SA	6½f T	sMdSpWt	3rd/9 -3½L	76	4.2-1	b L	Off slow;2-4wd;kept on

3Miles FinchLSH. Berrios · J. BondeBerrios · BondeC81 82 81▼-3≡@trip 8315-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -381 82 81 ≡@trip 83CLS

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 81–88 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 82 81

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career · Trainer Jeff Bonde 28% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Seamless Factor 7-5

CLASS DROP

A step up in company: $25,000 claiming before, allowance today. Jeff Bonde takes over the training from John W Sadler.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bobbld/bpd hard st; ins), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 22d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	SA	6½f T	Clm 25k n2lc	2nd/8 -2L	81	0.9-1	b L	Bobbld/bpd hard st;ins
9/6	DMR	5f T	OC 50k	7th/10 -3¼L	82	11-1	b L	2-3w;bore out badly1/4
8/1	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	7th/11 -4½L	81	11-1	b L	4-5wide; no rally

4Frank Bullitt▲T. Baze · D. WinickBaze · WinickA90 87 96►@trip 873-1Fair 7-221%► Steady90 87 96@trip 87A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 871

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 87 96

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87

Jockey T C Baze 27% career · Trainer Debbie Winick 20% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Van Gogh Style 5-2

Has run 96 against a 87 par for the class. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 6d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	2nd/8	90	4.0-1	b L	Duel ins;clear;nailed
8/14	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	2nd/9 -1½L	87	1.5-1	b L	Ins-2w;tip3w;game btwn
7/17	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	Won/8	96	6.0-1	b L	Brk out;outsd;cleared

5Moment of ValorA. Ayuso · P. EurtonAyuso · EurtonB84 91 83►≡@trip 8410-1Fair 12-17%► Steady84 91 83 ≡@trip 84B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 83–91 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 91 83

Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career · Trainer Peter Eurton 35% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Cardwell 20-1

Last out was 2nd, 2¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at SA. Best recent figure of 91 sits right around the 87 par.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	2nd/9 -2¾L	84	4.1-1	L	Ins;rallied;too late
8/22	DMR	1 1/16 T	sOC20000n1x	7th/12 -3½L	91	15-1	L	Inside; no late kick
7/17	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	4th/8 -5L	83	4.9-1	L	Rushed on heels early

6Speed of Elon▼J. Valdivia Jr. · D. DunhamValdivia Jr. · DunhamC78 78 82►≡30-1Fair 50-12%► Steady78 78 82 ≡C▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–82 · Last 3 figs 78 78 82

▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87

Jockey J Jr Valdivia · Trainer Daniel Dunham 26% career

2nd of 10 at 3F on Oct 25, in :36.00. 6th last time, 3¾ lengths back, in a field of 9.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	6th/9 -3¾L	78	52-1	L	Inside-2wide; no bid
9/5	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	10th/10 -7½L	78	55-1	L	Inside; no impact
7/25	DMR	1m T	sOC20000n1x	7th/8 -4L	82	41-1	L	Inside; no response

7The G MD. Van · M. PuypeVan · PuypeC79 79 82►≡30-1Fair 50-12%► Steady79 79 82 ≡C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–83 · Last 3 figs 79 79 82

Jockey Dyke Drayden Van · Trainer Mike Puype 27% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Marcos Performance 15-1, R6: Dont Short Ur Self 30-1 · Trainer R6: Dont Short Ur Self 30-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today. Was 8th of 9 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 15d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/14	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	6th/9 -5L	79	20-1	b L	Crowded early;2-3wide
7/23	DMR	1m D	sOC20000n1x	6th/8 -7½L	79	3.3-1	b L	Bid3deep;2w/btwn;tired
5/25	SA	5½f D	sOC20000n1x	Won/9	82	5.7-1	b L	Bid btwn;duel;gamely

8Going Nowhere▲▼W. Orantes · R. HansonOrantes · HansonC89 77 80▲▲+8@trip 8330-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best89 77 80@trip 83C▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 77 80
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Welfin R Orantes 27% career · Trainer Ryan Hanson 37% career
Also today · Trainer R6: Eurydice 12-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Won last out in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at SA. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Jul 9 (:38.60), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 115 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 SA 6f T sMdSpWt Won/9 89 2.9-1 b L Bpd btwn3/8;bid3w;game
9/26 SA 1m T sMd50000 4th/10 77 2.4-1 b L Stalked;led;yielded
9/7 DMR 1m T sMdSpWt 4th/8 -½L 80 3.6-1 b L 2w;bid3deep;led;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	SA	6f T	sMdSpWt	Won/9	89	2.9-1	b L	Bpd btwn3/8;bid3w;game
9/26	SA	1m T	sMd50000	4th/10	77	2.4-1	b L	Stalked;led;yielded
9/7	DMR	1m T	sMdSpWt	4th/8 -½L	80	3.6-1	b L	2w;bid3deep;led;wknd

9Feeling LuckyM. Americano · B. KorinerAmericano · KorinerC76 94 87▼▼-8↕@trip 7212-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -876 94 87 ↕@trip 72C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 72–94 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 94 87

Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career · Trainer Brian Koriner 31% career

Figure of 94 on the record sits above the 87 par. Dropped in well back early last out, 11th of 11 at the first call.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m T	sOC20000n1x	11th/11 -9½L	76	2.3-1	b L	Bpd;crowded brk;ins
8/22	DMR	1 1/16 T	sOC20000n1x	2nd/12	94	25-1	b L	Stalk;duel2w;drft late
7/24	DMR	1m T	sMdSpWt	Won/10	87	7.7-1	b L	2wd-inside;resolutely

10Third Beer▲J. Rosario · T. YakteenRosario · YakteenA88 83 85▲+5≡9-2Fair 7-113%▲ Up +5 · career best88 83 85 ≡A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 873

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 80–88 · Last 3 figs 88 83 85

▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 87

Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career · Trainer Tim Yakteen 30% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Blame It On Jack 8-1, R6: Rosa's Miracle 3-1 · Trainer R6: Big Broadcast 30-1

60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Back after 162 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Runs for $67,000 today after a $125,000 race last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/23	SA	1⅛m T	sSnowChiefB125k	4th/10 -2½L	88	8.0-1	b	Ins;angled1/8;edgd3rd
4/2	SA	1m T	OC 80k n1x	4th/5 -3L	83	3.6-1	b L	Ins;bid3deep;flattened
2/21	SA	1m T	sOC50000n1x	Won/7 by 1½	85	1.6-1	b L	2w-ins;shftd/bp midstr

11OwlK. Kimura · N. DrysdaleKimura · DrysdaleB86 87 84►≡@trip 815-1Fair 10-110%► Steady86 87 84 ≡@trip 81B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–87 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 87 84

Jockey Kazushi Kimura 32% career · Trainer Neil Drysdale 22% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Big Broadcast 30-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Jockey switch: Joel Rosario last out, Kazushi Kimura today. Last out was 3rd, 7 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse optional claiming race at SA.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	3rd/8 -7L	86	1.6-1	L	2wide; mild rally
9/5	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	2nd/10 -3½L	87	4.4-1	L	4-2w;angled out;miss
8/1	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	4th/11 -3L	84	8.3-1	b L	Ins-2w;tip out;willing

12Grey's BoyU. Rispoli · V. CerinRispoli · CerinC83 83 75▲+4≡@trip 838-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +483 83 75 ≡@trip 83C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 83 75

Jockey Umberto Rispoli 37% career · Trainer Vladimir Cerin 27% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Tiz The Truth 12-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Moves up from $25,000 claiming to allowance. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 97).

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 27d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	SA	6½f T	Clm 25k n2l	Won/8	83	1.7-1	b L	Ins;cleared;held late
9/6	DMR	1⅛m T	OC 50k	10th/12 -½L	83	38-1	b L	Prss;vie btw;duel;wknd
8/1	DMR	5f T	sOC20000n1x	10th/11 -7L	75	5.4-1	b L	4w;angled6w;no respons

13Got'm Cot'm▲T. Pereira · V. BrinkerhoffPereira · BrinkerhoffA95 83 99▲+5@trip 775-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +595 83 99@trip 77A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 87

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 83 99

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 87

Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career · Trainer Val Brinkerhoff 22% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Fionello 10-1, R6: Her Strut 20-1 · Trainer R5: Italio 20-1

WON LAST

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Owns the highest recent figure here at 99.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

SHARP LAST OUT 3deep; clear; going away last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	SA	6f D	sOC20000n1x	Won/5	95	0.5-1	b L	3deep;clear;going away
10/3	SA	6f T	sOC20000n1x	3rd/9 -4¼L	83	4.3-1	b L	Off slow/checked;2-3wd
9/4	DMR	6½f D	sOC20000n1x	3rd/12 -4¼L	99	3.8-1	b L	Inside-2wd; late surge

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SWL · RACE 4

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $67,000 purse

Field

13 runners

Purse

$67,000

Post

9:33 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 21%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Frank Bullitt (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 90 · 87 · 96. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Jimmy Winkfield at 4-1. Use #10 Third Beer in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 FRANK BULLITT (3-1) — our number agrees.
#4 FRANK BULLITT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.4%).
#2 JIMMY WINKFIELD — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.1%, they've got 13.9%.
#10 THIRD BEER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 12.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 JIMMY WINKFIELD — we make it 16.1%, the morning line works out to 13.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Miles Finch; pressure from #9 Feeling Lucky, #4 Frank Bullitt; the shape helps #4 Frank Bullitt, #6 Speed Of Elon, #7 The G M; and works against #3 Miles Finch, #9 Feeling Lucky.

Lead

3Miles Finch899Feeling Lucky69

Press

4Frank Bullitt9812Grey's Boy977The G M8913Got'm Cot'm856Speed Of Elon84

Stalk

8Going Nowhere9610Third Beer80

2Jimmy Winkfield985Moment Of Valor8811Owl881Kerry Gold80

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Frank Bullitt

Grey's Boy

Going Nowhere

Miles Finch

The G M

Got'm Cot'm

Speed Of Elon

Third Beer

Feeling Lucky

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Kerry Gold

Jimmy Winkfield

Moment Of Valor

Owl

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LEG D OF THE SUNSET SIX

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