R3 AIK · Optional Claiming $25,000

2:20 PM ET · 2 3/8 Miles Turf · $25,000 · 4 runners2:20 PM · 19f Turf · 4 runners

Upcoming $25K · Optional Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Better BetF. Procter · K. NeilsonProcter · NeilsonA72 82 84▼▼-12—Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1272 82 84A3
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Last 3 figs 72 82 84
Jockey Freddie Procter 25% career · Trainer Kathy Neilson 22% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Perfect Reel, R4: Enahm, R5: Roberta, R6: Sweet Will · Trainer R2: Perfect Reel
Purse drops from $150,000 to $25,000 against its last start. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 506d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 FH 2½m T rFxbrkChmp150k DNF — 15-1 L Pulled up
9/26 SHW 2m T Alw n2l 4th/10 -4L — — L Mild late rally
6/29 CNL 2¼m T MSW Won/7 — 14-1 L Btwn3rd;bid3w;drifted
2Biggerthanbigtime▲J. Bargary · B. FoleyBargary · FoleyA64—Fair 20-15%—64A▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 64
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Jamie Bargary 20% career · Trainer Barry Foley 30% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Smooth Sailor, R4: Fleetfoot, R5: Loving Look, R6: Time Song · Trainer R4: Fleetfoot, R5: Loving Look
LASIX 1ST
Stretches out from 1 1/8 miles to 2 3/8 miles. Last out was 5th, a head behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden claiming $16,000 race at LRL.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Pinch start; check 3/4), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 22d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/23 LRL 1⅛m T MCL 16k 5th/12 by hd 64 3.5-1 Pinch start;check 3/4
6/15 LRL -17f T Alw n2l 2nd/8 — 5.8-1 Met bids; dead game
5/3 GRM 2½m T Alw n2l 8th/9 -8½L — 5.1-1 Trailed
3The Wizards WellC. Tierney · R. HendriksTierney · Hendriks?—Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Conor Tierney 20% career · Trainer Richard J Hendriks 26% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Consolation Prize, R6: Blue Waters · Trainer R6: Blue Waters, R6: Porcupine Bank
Class relief: handicap last time, optional claiming today. Goes 2 3/8 miles after running 2 1/8 miles last time.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 MID 2⅛m T Handicap 5th/5 -5L — — L Evenly
9/26 SHW 2m T Alw n2l 5th/10 -3L — — L Set pace; faded
5/3 GRM 2½m T MSW Won/10 — 4.4-1 L Game throughout

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	FH	2½m T	rFxbrkChmp150k	DNF	—	15-1	L	Pulled up
9/26	SHW	2m T	Alw n2l	4th/10 -4L	—	—	L	Mild late rally
6/29	CNL	2¼m T	MSW	Won/7	—	14-1	L	Btwn3rd;bid3w;drifted

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/23	LRL	1⅛m T	MCL 16k	5th/12 by hd	64	3.5-1	Pinch start;check 3/4
6/15	LRL	-17f T	Alw n2l	2nd/8	—	5.8-1	Met bids; dead game
5/3	GRM	2½m T	Alw n2l	8th/9 -8½L	—	5.1-1	Trailed

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	MID	2⅛m T	Handicap	5th/5 -5L	—	—	L	Evenly
9/26	SHW	2m T	Alw n2l	5th/10 -3L	—	—	L	Set pace; faded
5/3	GRM	2½m T	MSW	Won/10	—	4.4-1	L	Game throughout

4Benjis BenefitG. Watters · A. KingsleyWatters · KingsleyA79 81 76▲▲+8—Fair 1-589%▲▲ Big jump +879 81 76A1

Card model 89% · Fair odds 1-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 79 81 76

Jockey Graham Watters 34% career · Trainer Archibald J Kingsley

Also today · Jockey R1: Auction Kingdom, R2: Give It A Whirl, R2: Daniel Sun, R4: Academy +1 more · Trainer R6: Sweet Will

LASIX 1ST

Beaten 7½ lengths for 7th in an 8-horse race at CNL. Off 54 days since the last start.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 23d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	CNL	1½m T	ClonialCpB150k	7th/8 -7½L	79	79-1		Led;svd gnd;tired
8/28	CNL	1⅛m T	Alw s	5th/9 -1½L	81	33-1	L	Pace 2p; yield 3/8
8/7	CNL	1⅛m T	MCL 16k	Won/12	76	49-1	L	Bobble brk;4w;kept on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #2 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

AIK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $25,000

Field

4 runners

Purse

$25,000

Post

2:20 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#4 · 89%

Claiming $25,000, for 4-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 2 3/8 Miles: 250.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Benjis Benefit (a presser/stalker, M/L —). Recent figures: 79 · 81 · 76. Backup is #2 Biggerthanbigtime at —. Use #1 Better Bet in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 BENJIS BENEFIT () — our number agrees.
#4 BENJIS BENEFIT — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 44.8%, the board 0.0%.
#2 BIGGERTHANBIGTIME — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 19.8%, the board 0.0%.
#1 BETTER BET — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 19.5%, the board 0.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 BENJIS BENEFIT () — our fair 44.8% is above the morning line's 0.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #2 Biggerthanbigtime; pressure from #4 Benjis Benefit.

Lead

2Biggerthanbigtime86

Press

4Benjis Benefit72

Stalk

none

1Better Bet

No style yet

3The Wizards Well

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Biggerthanbigtime

Benjis Benefit

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Better Bet

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