1Blue WatersC. Tierney · R. HendriksTierney · Hendriks?—Fair 4-121%
——?1Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R2: Consolation Prize, R3: The Wizards Well · Trainer R3: The Wizards Well, this race: Porcupine BankWON LASTWinner of a 6-horse race at FH last time. Purse drops from $100,000 to $50,000 against its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Drew clear.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 27d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 FH 2⅛m T PeapackH G2 Won/6 — 2.1-1 L Drew clear 5/9 PW 2¼m T MCurHnly G2 Won/9 — — L Bid after the 11th 2Rampoldi PlanS. Mulqueen · K. BrionMulqueen · Brion?—Fair 6-115%
——?3Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R1: Primed To Go, R2: Bjorn, R2: Deemer, R4: Moreperfectunion +1 more · Trainer R2: Deemer, R4: Moreperfectunion60D LAYOFF175 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Changes barns, from Leslie F Young to Keri Brion.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 22d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/9 PW 2¼m T rGrenPastrs125k 2nd/8 by hd — — L Stretch loss 3/28 CAM 2⅛m T rCrlnCup75k 5th/7 -10L — — L Rated; bid; hung 11/15 PMT 2⅜m T rAFLACSprm75k 4th/7 -3L — — L Outkicked in stretch 3Sweet WillF. Procter · A. KingsleyProcter · Kingsley?—Fair 6-114%
——?Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R2: Perfect Reel, R3: Better Bet, R4: Enahm, R5: Roberta · Trainer R3: Benjis BenefitRuns for $50,000 today after a $150,000 race last time. Back to 2 1/8 miles off a 2 3/8 miles race.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/2 SAR 2⅜m T JShprdMH G1 3rd/7 -1L — 20-1 Tracked ins; fought on 7/5 SAR -19f T LOBrienH G1 5th/7 -10L — 15-1 2p at rear; pass tired 5/25 FAI 2¼m T rValenMemor50k 5th/10 -3¾L — 5.2-1 Passed tiring rivals 4Belfast BanterB. Dalton · C. MurphyDalton · Murphy?—Fair 8-110%
——?Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
60D LAYOFFReturns from a 175-day break, the biggest in the field. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 560 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/9 WIL 2¼m T Alw b 3rd/7 by hd — — L Bid; hung 4/19 MOX -20f T Alw b Won/3 by 2 — — L Up in final strides 11/23 CAM 2⅝m T ClnialCp G1 6th/9 -18L — — L Off pace; flattened 5Time SongJ. Bargary · J. FisherBargary · FisherA82 83 88►—Fair 5-116%
► Steady82 83 88A2Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 82 83 88
★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTLast start was a win, in a 10-horse allowance race at SHW. Stretches out from 2 miles to 2 1/8 miles.
PACE HELPS The only real early speed in the race, so the lead is there if it wants it. (early-speed points: 8)SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Drew clear stretch.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 67d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SHW 2m T Alw n2l Won/10 — — L Drew clear stretch 9/6 KD 1½m T Alw n1x 6th/10 -11L 82 3.8-1 L Tight btw 3/8;tired 8/13 CNL 2¼m T MSW Won/10 — 1.9-1 L Poor over3rd;driving 6Porcupine BankD. Nevin · R. HendriksNevin · Hendriks?—Fair 7-112%
——?Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R4: Trevesso, R5: Grace Darling · Trainer R3: The Wizards Well, this race: Blue WatersRichard J Hendriks takes over the training from Gordon Elliot. Runs for $50,000 today after a $75,000 race last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 FH 2⅛m T HEHarris75k DNF — 0.5-1 L Lost stirrups 7Walk the WarriorG. Watters · N. MorrisWatters · Morris?—Fair 7-112%
——?Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R1: Auction Kingdom, R2: Give It A Whirl, R2: Daniel Sun, R3: Benjis Benefit +1 more · Trainer R1: Joyrider, R1: Modern Master, R1: Primed To Go, R1: Auction Kingdom +4 moreWON LASTWon last out in a 7-horse handicap race at FX. Went to the front early last out.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 FX 2⅛m T Handicap Won/7 — — L Led; held in stretch 5/9 PW 2¼m T rMrcllsFros125k 5th/8 -4L — — L Led; lost ground 4/19 MOX -20f T Alw b 2nd/3 — — L Lost in stretch battle
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
AIK · RACE 6
UPCOMINGHoliday Cup
Stakes, for 4-year-olds and up.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Track record at 2 1/8 Miles: 222.0
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #1 Blue Waters (a tactical type, M/L —). It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Time Song at —. Use #2 Rampoldi Plan in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 BLUE WATERS () — our number agrees.
- #1 BLUE WATERS — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 16.5%, the board 0.0%.
- #5 TIME SONG — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 15.9%, the board 0.0%.
- #2 RAMPOLDI PLAN — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 15.0%, the board 0.0%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 BLUE WATERS () — our fair 16.5% is above the morning line's 0.0%; supported by: last out: "Drew clear" — finished with authority
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Wire-To-Wire Likely. One speed type with no pressure. Lone speed often dictates fractions and walks the dog.
Likely leader: #5 Time Song; the shape helps #5 Time Song; and works against #1 Blue Waters, #2 Rampoldi Plan, #3 Sweet Will.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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