1Tricky KittyE. Dwan · T. GarnerDwan · GarnerA58 63 85▼▼-21—Fair 9-218%
▼▼ Big drop -2158 63 85ACard model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · Last 3 figs 58 63 85
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 89, with 80 next best. Finished 4th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at FX, beaten 14 lengths.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.60 on Mar 20 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 FX 2⅛m T MSW 4th/9 -14L — — L Out the back; gained 8/26 PEN 1 1/16 T Alw n1x 8th/8 -10L 58 6.6-1 L Failed to sustain bid; 7/12 SAR 1½m T OC 55k n1x 8th/8 -9L 63 16-1 L In hand ins; eased 2Grace DarlingD. Nevin · M. BeecherNevin · BeecherA68 74 73▼-7—Fair 3-124%
▼ Down -768 74 73A1Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 68 74 73
★ FASTEST WORKPosted the fastest 4F work of the morning on May 17, in :49.00. The last race on the record (FX, Oct 4) shows no finish position.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.00 on May 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 FX 2⅛m T MSW DNF — — L Tired; pulled up 6/29 CNL 2¼m T MSW 8th/9 -20L — 4.8-1 L Settled inside;tired 5/25 FAI 2m T MSW 4th/8 -11L — 4.2-1 L No rally; evenly 3PerkyS. Mulqueen · J. GomensMulqueen · GomensA74 78 80▼-3—Fair 9-218%
▼ Down -374 78 80ACard model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 74 78 80
Also today · Jockey R1: Primed To Go, R2: Bjorn, R2: Deemer, R4: Moreperfectunion +1 more · Trainer R2: Consolation PrizeFigures have slipped: 80, 78, 74 over its last three. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 224d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 FX 2⅛m T MSW DNF — — L Tired; pulled up 4/3 TAM 1 1/16 T Clm 16k 4th/10 -9L 74 3.8-1 b L Bmp st;track 3w;7w 1/4 2/21 TAM 1⅛m T Hcp16000s 6th/12 -5½L 78 5.9-1 b L Bmp brk;2p;evenly 4RobertaF. Procter · W. DowlingProcter · DowlingB58 62 69▼-3—Fair 9-219%
▼ Down -358 62 69B3Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 58 62 69
A longer trip: 1 1/16 miles last out, 2 1/8 miles today. Trending the wrong way on speed, 69 to 62 to 58.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 179d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LRL 1 1/16 T Clm 16k n2l 5th/8 -6L 58 7.3-1 b L Rail; no rally 8/27 PEN 1m T OC 16k 2nd/8 62 2.9-1 b L Driftd late left urgin 8/13 DEL -8.31818f T Clm 32k n2l 5th/7 -3¾L 69 42-1 b L Urged 3wd 3/8;weaknd 5Loving LookJ. Bargary · B. FoleyBargary · Foley?—Fair 4-121%
——?2Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R2: Smooth Sailor, R3: Biggerthanbigtime, R4: Fleetfoot, R6: Time Song · Trainer R3: Biggerthanbigtime, R4: FleetfootLASIX 1STGets a new rider, Jamie Bargary replacing Danny Mullins. Last start: 2nd in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at FX.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 FX 2⅛m T MSW 2nd/9 — — Stretch loss 7/30 CNL 2¼m T LifeIlsn G2 8th/9 -13L — 6.0-1 L No response 2/20 SOU 1½m D Tppng Tm On20k 10th/11 — 25-1
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #4 is the only true speed and could control it.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
AIK · RACE 5
UPCOMINGMaiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 2 1/8 Miles: 222.0
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #2 Grace Darling (a presser/stalker, M/L —). Backup is #5 Loving Look at —. Use #4 Roberta in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 GRACE DARLING () — our number agrees.
- #2 GRACE DARLING — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 20.3%, the board 0.0%.
- #5 LOVING LOOK — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 19.9%, the board 0.0%.
- #4 ROBERTA — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 19.9%, the board 0.0%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 GRACE DARLING () — our fair 20.3% is above the morning line's 0.0%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #4 Roberta; pressure from #2 Grace Darling.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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