1Maltese FalconN. Prendergast · N. MorrisPrendergast · MorrisA86 83 88►—Fair 10-19%
► Steady86 83 88ACard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 86 83 88
Also today · Jockey R1: Modern Master, R2: Vin Santo · Trainer R1: Joyrider, R1: Modern Master, R1: Primed To Go, R1: Auction Kingdom +4 more★ FASTEST WORKBeaten 58 lengths for 5th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at FX. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden special weight.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 19 (5F in :59.80), 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 FX 2⅛m T MSW 5th/7 -58L — — L Trailed 3/21 TUP 1m T FitzsimnHB50k 2nd/7 -4½L 86 4.0-1 L 4wd bid; gained place 3/11 TUP -8f T OC 25k n2xc Won/5 83 1.3-1 L Well placed; 2w; best 2NothingbutblueskyB. Dalton · K. DaltonDalton · DaltonB74 83 84▼▼-8—Fair 8-110%
▼▼ Big drop -874 83 84BCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 74 83 84
180D+ LAYOFFReturns from a 338-day break. Changes barns, from Kelly Rubley to Kate Dalton.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 22d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 11/27 LRL 1m T rAlw48500n1x 5th/7 -6½L 74 1.5-1 b L Used 4wd nearing 1/2 10/25 LRL 1 1/16 T Alw n1x 7th/10 -5¼L 83 24-1 L Stay ins;ran up on foe 9/14 LRL 1 1/16 T rAlw49000n1x 3rd/8 -6L 84 6.5-1 L 3wd; mild rally 3Academy▲G. Watters · N. MorrisWatters · MorrisA81 78 75►—Fair 7-113%
► Steady81 78 75A▲ Lone speed on early pace3Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 81 78 75
▲ Lone speed on early paceAlso today · Jockey R1: Auction Kingdom, R2: Give It A Whirl, R2: Daniel Sun, R3: Benjis Benefit +1 more · Trainer R1: Joyrider, R1: Modern Master, R1: Primed To Go, R1: Auction Kingdom +4 moreTops the field on speed figures, a 94 against 88 for the next best. Has moved up each time out, 75 to 78 to 81.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 111d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 MID 2⅛m T MSW 4th/10 -1L — — L DQ'd; unplaced 7/18 CNL 1 1/16 T Alw n1x 8th/10 -4¾L 81 4.1-1 b L Ins;swung4w;bmpd;wknd 5/28 DEL 1 1/16 D Alw n1x 3rd/6 -2L 78 0.4-1 b L Inside; gave way 4Uncle BossE. Dwan · T. GarnerDwan · Garner?—Fair 8-110%
——?Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Runs for $30,000 today after a $64,000 race last time. The last race on the record (FH, Oct 17) shows no finish position.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 FH 2⅛m T McDynmoMdn64k DNF — 7.5-1 L Pulled up 9/26 SHW 2m T MSW 7th/10 -8L — — Never a threat 5FleetfootJ. Bargary · B. FoleyBargary · FoleyA85 69 88▲▲+8—Fair 6-114%
▲▲ Big jump +885 69 88A1Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 85 69 88
Also today · Jockey R2: Smooth Sailor, R3: Biggerthanbigtime, R5: Loving Look, R6: Time Song · Trainer R3: Biggerthanbigtime, R5: Loving LookLASIX 1STA longer trip: 2 miles last out, 2 1/8 miles today. Purse drops from $150,000 to $30,000 against its last start.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 27d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 FH 2m T JForbesMe150k DNF — 4.7-1 Faded; pulled up 6/29 CNL 2m T Alw b 5th/9 -3L 85 1.0-1 Keen btwn;shut off 1/8 6/4 SAR 2m T BelGldCp G2 6th/8 -27L 69 11-1 3w 1st & 2nd trns;ease 6EnahmF. Procter · T. McKennaProcter · McKennaB72 74 78►—Fair 7-113%
► Steady72 74 78B2Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 72 74 78
Also today · Jockey R2: Perfect Reel, R3: Better Bet, R5: Roberta, R6: Sweet Will · Trainer R2: Smooth Sailor◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEFreddie Procter takes over from Bernard Dalton in the saddle. Last out was 4th, 1 length behind the winner, in a 10-horse race at MID.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 383d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 MID 2⅛m T Moc30000 4th/10 -1L — — L Lacked room; gamely 7/30 CNL 2¼m T MSW 8th/10 -16L — 18-1 L Inside;no menace 6/21 LRL -17f T MSW 3rd/10 -12L — 35-1 L Even effort 7Really GoodG. Dahl · M. SimsDahl · SimsB85 79 80▲+3—Fair 8-111%
▲ Up +385 79 80BCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 85 79 80
3rd of 7 at 5F on Sep 12, in 1:00.80. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden special weight is an easier level on paper.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 42d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 MID 2⅛m T MSW 2nd/10 -4½L — — L Closed for second 5/9 PW 2¼m T LBMcMllnMm60k 3rd/10 -4L — — L Midpack; bid 4/18 MID 2⅛m T Moc25000 2nd/7 -1L — — L Overtaken; second best 8TrevessoD. Nevin · M. BeecherNevin · BeecherC69 68 88▼▼-9—Fair 10-110%
▼▼ Big drop -969 68 88CCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 69 68 88
Also today · Jockey R5: Grace Darling, R6: Porcupine Bank · Trainer R2: Give It A Whirl, R5: Grace Darling6th last time, 14 lengths back, in a field of 10. Worked 4F in :49.20 on Feb 12, 3rd of 10 at the distance.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 30d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 MID 2⅛m T MSW 6th/10 -14L — — L Dropped back 2/19 PEN 1m D Alw n1x 4th/7 -16L 69 4.4-1 L 2-w; improved position 1/3 CT 6½f D OC 15k n1x 5th/8 -1¼L 68 2.9-1 L Bid4w1/8;no late kick 9MoreperfectunionS. Mulqueen · K. BrionMulqueen · BrionC60 51—Fair 8-110%
—60 51CCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 60 51
Also today · Jockey R1: Primed To Go, R2: Bjorn, R2: Deemer, R5: Perky +1 more · Trainer R2: Deemer, R6: Rampoldi Plan180D+ LAYOFFBack after 356 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Went to the front early last out.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 22d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 11/9 CHA 2 1/16 T MSW 2nd/6 -½L — — L Lead; outfinished 10/11 MID 2⅛m T WilOKeeMem50k 5th/6 -26L — — L Brief speed; tired 9/27 SHW 2m T MSW 4th/10 -¾L — — L Dueled; overtaken
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
AIK · RACE 4
UPCOMINGMaiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 2 1/8 Miles: 222.0
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #5 Fleetfoot (a presser/stalker, M/L —). Recent figures: 85 · 69. Backup is #6 Enahm at —. Use #3 Academy in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 FLEETFOOT () — our number agrees.
- #5 FLEETFOOT — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 12.1%, the board 0.0%.
- #6 ENAHM — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 11.6%, the board 0.0%.
- #3 ACADEMY — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 11.5%, the board 0.0%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 FLEETFOOT () — our fair 12.1% is above the morning line's 0.0%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Academy; pressure from #1 Maltese Falcon, #5 Fleetfoot; the shape helps #1 Maltese Falcon, #5 Fleetfoot, #6 Enahm; and works against #3 Academy, #4 Uncle Boss, #9 Moreperfectunion.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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