CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 6

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $62,000 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$62,000

Post

3:26 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#4 · 30%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.55

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Lockdownyourtown (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 87 · 82 · 83. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Noroomformischief at 5-2. Use #6 Lindy Can in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

4Lockdownyourtown

Jockey Cristian A Torres 32% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Robertino Diodoro 39% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Loves To Fish 15-1, R9: Wado Wave 8-1

3/4 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 84 for the next best. Led at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 14 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Cristian A Torres from post 4 here: 6 wins, 29 top-3 in 79 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L8-5

Model30%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 48d

22ND

3Noroomformischief

Jockey Danny Sheehy 22% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer John Ennis 29% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Flume's Vino 10-1

2/3 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 87, with 84 next best. 3rd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 10.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 112d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L5-2

Model21%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last3rd · 26d

33RD

6Lindy Can

Jockey Summer Pauly 26% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Dana Hancock 22% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R9: Once Upon A Time 5-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Drops from allowance to starter allowance.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Hopped st; through 1/2), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 10; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

M/L20-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last11th · 31d

44TH

2Final Shipman

Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Sarah E Shaffer 28% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Enticing Moves 8-1, R8: Smokey Smokey 6-1, R8: The Minkster 20-1, R9: Market Strategy 10-1

CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Sarah E Shaffer takes over the training from Jordan Blair. A step up in company: $20,000 claiming before, starter allowance today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 21 (4F in :48.00), 3 works in 30d

RECORD Jaime A Torres from post 2 here: 6 wins, 37 top-3 in 87 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last6th · 40d

55TH

1She's Not A Joke

Jockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career 5-for-32 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Matt Williams 31% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Poppa Echo 10-1, R4: Statutory 7-2

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

199 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Figures have slipped: 84, 73, 69 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 10d back

RECORD Francisco Arrieta from post 1 here: 7 wins, 23 top-3 in 70 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last5th · 199d

7Epic Prankster

Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer James M Watkins 35% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 7 furlongs. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 83).

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 50d ago

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 26d

5Critikal Sense

Jockey Jane Elliott 35% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Eoin Harty 34% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hot

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Winner of a 12-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at CD last time. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 10 (:47.20), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Oct 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Jane Elliott from post 5 here: 1 win, 6 top-3 in 17 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last1st · 33d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 LOCKDOWNYOURTOWN (8-5) — our number agrees.
#4 LOCKDOWNYOURTOWN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.9% to their 29.9%).
#3 NOROOMFORMISCHIEF — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.5% to their 22.2%).
#5 CRITIKAL SENSE — our #7 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 LINDY CAN (20-1) — our fair 4.9% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Critikal Sense; pressure from #7 Epic Prankster, #4 Lockdownyourtown; the shape helps #1 She's Not A Joke, #2 Final Shipman, #3 Noroomformischief; and works against #5 Critikal Sense, #7 Epic Prankster.

Lead

5Critikal Sense967Epic Prankster83

Press

4Lockdownyourtown926Lindy Can91

Stalk

1She's Not A Joke912Final Shipman843Noroomformischief79

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Critikal Sense

Lockdownyourtown

She's Not A Joke

Lindy Can

Final Shipman

Epic Prankster

Noroomformischief

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Final Shipman

Lockdownyourtown

She's Not A Joke

Noroomformischief

Epic Prankster

Critikal Sense

Lindy Can

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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PICK 4 (RACES 6-7-8-9) / SUPER HI-5 / ODD VS EVEN

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