CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $50,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$67,000

Post

1:58 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#8 · 11%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.66

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #8 Private Show (a presser/stalker, M/L 15-1). Recent figures: 60 · 79. Backup is #3 Ingleborough at 7-2. Use #6 Harbor Prince in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

8Private Show

Jockey Keith J Asmussen 34% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Ravens Dream 12-1 · Trainer R1: Risk It 4-1, R1: Ravens Dream 12-1, this race: Macchiato 7-2, R7: Love Divine 6-1

CLASS DROP

Winless in 6 starts at this distance. Still looking for the first win after 8 starts.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 6d ago)

RECORD Keith J Asmussen from post 8 here: 3 wins, 10 top-3 in 32 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last7th · 24d

22ND

3Ingleborough

Jockey Luan Machado 35% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Dale Romans 33% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Triple Moon 12-1, R8: Bal A Kazoo 30-1 · Trainer this race: Max Is Him 6-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 87. Figures have slipped: 85, 83, 74 over its last three.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5wd move; bmp'd 1/8), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 11 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Luan Machado from post 3 here: 11 wins, 31 top-3 in 87 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 41d

33RD

6Harbor Prince

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Thomas Jr Drury 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Hard As Life 20-1, R5: Sav'n Money 15-1, R7: Rules And Regs 3-1, R8: Corona De Oro 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Perpetua 6-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS2/3 board here

Stretches out from 7 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Aug 15 (1:01.20), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 15 (5F in 1:01.20), 3 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L8-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 39d

44TH

7Flume's Vino

Jockey Danny Sheehy 22% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Chris Hartman 33% career 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Noroomformischief 5-2 · Trainer R9: Diamondintherough 8-1

Chris Hartman takes over the training from John Ennis. Moves up from maiden claiming $30,000 to maiden claiming $50,000.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 26d ago

RECORD Danny Sheehy from post 7 here: 2 wins, 2 top-3 in 17 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 17d

55TH

2It's Final

Jockey R Bejarano 34% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Donald J Habeeb 20% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Six String Prince 20-1, R9: Diamondintherough 8-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Changes barns, from Victoria Oliver to Donald J Habeeb. Raises its level, maiden claiming $30,000 last time and maiden claiming $50,000 now.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD R Bejarano from post 2 here: 8 wins, 18 top-3 in 54 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last6th · 47d

1Titan King

Jockey Edgar Morales 32% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Ronald E Moquett 31% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Attersee 6-1, R4: Grant's Gretchen 10-1, R5: Caragogo 6-1, R7: M's Mabee Baby 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Six String Prince 20-1

Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $50,000. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 9 days ago

RECORD Edgar Morales from post 1 here: 9 wins, 36 top-3 in 112 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 30d

5Macchiato

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Risk It 4-1, R2: Rapoport 8-1, R4: Spill The Sugar 2-1, R5: Lahainaluna 7-2 +2 more · Trainer R1: Risk It 4-1, R1: Ravens Dream 12-1, this race: Private Show 15-1, R7: Love Divine 6-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Last out was 6th, 7 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden claiming $100,000 race at CD. Was running in maiden claiming $100,000; today's maiden claiming $50,000 is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Pace; steadied; faded), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.20 on Aug 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 5 here: 27 wins, 58 top-3 in 119 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last6th · 41d

9Max Is Him

Jockey Gerardo Corrales 37% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Dale Romans 33% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R8: Mountain Bear 8-1 · Trainer this race: Ingleborough 7-2

0/3 board here

Beaten 23 lengths for 8th in a 10-horse maiden claiming $100,000 race at CD. 2nd of 8 at 5F on Sep 8, in 1:01.00.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 11d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Gerardo Corrales from post 9 here: 2 wins, 11 top-3 in 32 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last8th · 41d

4Guns Allowed

Jockey Irad Jr Ortiz 37% career 3-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career ★ 8-for-22 on dirt this meet (36%), #2 of 25 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Discotheque 9-5, R2: Chambersville 9-5, R5: Vaporetti 4-1, R7: Aegis 5-2 +1 more · Trainer R5: Vaporetti 4-1

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Back after 235 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Swung 5w; late rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 3; 3 works in 30d

M/L5-2

Model16%

Fav?Yes

StyleS

Last5th · 235d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 GUNS ALLOWED (5-2) — our number has it ranked #9.
#4 GUNS ALLOWED — our #9 number, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 22.9%).
#3 INGLEBOROUGH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 17.8%).
#5 MACCHIATO — our #7 number, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 17.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 PRIVATE SHOW (15-1) — our fair 6.3% is above the morning line's 5.0%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (34%) at 15-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Macchiato; pressure from #7 Flume's Vino; the shape helps #7 Flume's Vino, #8 Private Show; and works against #5 Macchiato.

Lead

5Macchiato89

Press

7Flume's Vino85

Stalk

8Private Show73

9Max Is Him833Ingleborough824Guns Allowed806Harbor Prince791Titan King772It's Final73

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Macchiato

Flume's Vino

Private Show

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

It's Final

Guns Allowed

Ingleborough

Max Is Him

Harbor Prince

Titan King

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)

PICK 5 (RACES 3-7) / SUPER HI-5 / ODD VS EVEN

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