CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 9
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $20,000
Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.55
The shape is the story here: 7 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #15 Givemethebeat (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 66 · 74 · 75. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #3 Mo Biscuit at 15-1. Use #1 Market Strategy in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 9 at the first call.
Class relief: maiden claiming $30,000 last time, maiden claiming $20,000 today. 7th last time, 4½ lengths back, in a field of 9.
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 79 par. Has moved up each time out, 39 to 58 to 61.
Still looking for the first win after 8 starts. Switches from turf to dirt.
Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden claiming $20,000 now. A 66 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par.
Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
174 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Figures have slipped: 67, 60, 51 over its last three.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $20,000 is an easier level on paper.
Worked 3F in :38.00 on Jun 2, 2nd of 6 at the distance. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 7 furlongs.
Fastest 4F work of its morning on Aug 6 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly. Maiden through 7 starts.
Back after 220 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
Best recent figure is 60, well under the 79 par for this level. Beaten 9¼ lengths for 7th in an 11-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at CD.
Freshened 103 days. Watch how its recent works look. Drops from maiden claiming $30,000 to maiden claiming $20,000.
0 for 6 at today's distance. Figures have slipped: 66, 58, 53 over its last three.
Finished 3rd in a 4-horse maiden claiming $5,000 race at BTP, beaten 1½ lengths. Figures are climbing: 8, 38, 47 over its last three.
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 SHARP MINDSET (7-2) — our number has it ranked #6.
- #8 SHARP MINDSET — our #6 number, about right at the windows (13.5% to their 14.3%).
- #5 YASMIN — our #8 number, about right at the windows (11.0% to their 11.7%).
- #6 ONCE UPON A TIME — our #7 number, about right at the windows (10.4% to their 10.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 MO BISCUIT (15-1) — our fair 4.9% is above the morning line's 4.0%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #12 Wado Wave; pressure from #5 Yasmin, #13 Buckeye Favorite; the shape helps #1 Market Strategy, #3 Mo Biscuit, #15 Givemethebeat; and works against #2 Perpetua, #4 No Mo Rags, #5 Yasmin.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / SUPER HI-5 / ODD VS EVEN / JACKPOT 8
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta