CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $30,000

Field

11 runners

Purse

$57,000

Post

2:27 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#9 · 30%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.55

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Spill The Sugar (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 77 · 55 · 69. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Pulling Threads at 9-2. Use #7 Grant's Gretchen in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

9Spill The Sugar

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Kinnon Larose 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Risk It 4-1, R2: Rapoport 8-1, R3: Macchiato 7-2, R5: Lahainaluna 7-2 +2 more

CLASS DROP2/3 board here

Worked 4F in :47.20 on Sep 4, 2nd of 73 at the distance. Last out was 2nd, 5 lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at CD.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

TROUBLED TRIP Jostld btw; 5w1/4; rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 15 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 9 here: 15 wins, 32 top-3 in 66 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

M/L2-1

Model30%

Fav?Yes

StyleS

Last2nd · 33d

22ND

5Pulling Threads

Jockey Yomar Jr Ortiz 37% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 6-for-32 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R8: B D Valeski 15-1, R9: Sharp Mindset 7-2 · Trainer R5: Lahainaluna 7-2, R7: Aegis 5-2, R9: Sharp Mindset 7-2

60D LAYOFFCLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Figures have slipped: 69, 64, 58 over its last three. Finished 6th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $85,000 race at SAR, beaten 12 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago

M/L9-2

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last6th · 80d

33RD

7Grant's Gretchen

Jockey Edgar Morales 32% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Fergus Bogle 19% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Attersee 6-1, R3: Titan King 20-1, R5: Caragogo 6-1, R7: M's Mabee Baby 30-1 +1 more

Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $30,000. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 78, with 77 next best.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 32 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Edgar Morales from post 7 here: 9 wins, 30 top-3 in 83 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 18d

44TH

2Statutory

Jockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career 5-for-32 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Philip Damato

Also today · Jockey R1: Poppa Echo 10-1, R6: She's Not A Joke 10-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 80 par. Was running in maiden claiming $100,000; today's maiden claiming $30,000 is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Francisco Arrieta from post 2 here: 9 wins, 28 top-3 in 69 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last6th · 34d

55TH

4Loves To Fish

Jockey Cristian A Torres 32% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Aaron Shorter 19% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Lockdownyourtown 8-5, R9: Wado Wave 8-1

CLASS DROP

New trainer: Wayne M Catalano had it last time, Aaron Shorter now. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 80 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d back

RECORD Cristian A Torres from post 4 here: 6 wins, 29 top-3 in 79 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last5th · 42d

6Riyah Al Nil

Jockey Axel Concepcion 33% career 2-for-32 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Michael A Tomlinson 27% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Dawn Dragon 8-1, R9: Nyad 8-1 · Trainer R1: Feral 15-1, this race: Enticing Moves 8-1, R9: Market Strategy 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Still looking for the first win after 17 starts.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 4w1/2; 6w1/4; late bid. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 29d back)

RECORD Axel Concepcion from post 6 here: 6 wins, 19 top-3 in 44 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 23d

8Funny Twist

Jockey O Mojica 34% career · Trainer Kelli Martinez 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R8: Sprint Out Pass 30-1 · Trainer R8: Sprint Out Pass 30-1

60D LAYOFF

Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Through after a half last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last12th · 80d

11Enticing Moves

Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Michael A Tomlinson 27% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Final Shipman 8-1, R8: Smokey Smokey 6-1, R8: The Minkster 20-1, R9: Market Strategy 10-1 · Trainer R1: Feral 15-1, this race: Riyah Al Nil 12-1, R9: Market Strategy 10-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS2/3 board here

Freshened 130 days. Watch how its recent works look. A 72 is the high figure lately, short of the 80 par.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 11d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Jaime A Torres from post 11 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 29 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last3rd · 130d

3Preach Tewmey Now

Jockey Luis A Hernandez 38% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ismael Bahena 29% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Switches from turf to dirt. 5th last time, 4½ lengths back, in a field of 8.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

M/L30-1

Model3%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last5th · 28d

10Triple Moon

Jockey Luan Machado 35% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Aaron M West 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Ingleborough 7-2, R8: Bal A Kazoo 30-1

180D+ LAYOFFJky 0/44 from post 10

Returns from a 353-day break, the biggest in the field. Aaron M West takes over the training from Chris Block.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 16 (4F in :48.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD Luan Machado has never won from post 10 here (7 top-3 in 44 rides) · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last3rd · 353d

1Super Pachi

Jockey Carlos Jimenez 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rilardo J Carpio 18% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R9: Buckeye Favorite 15-1

Raises its level, maiden claiming $12,500 last time and maiden claiming $30,000 now. Changes barns, from Isaias Ayala to Rilardo J Carpio.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 147d back)

M/L50-1

Model2%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last7th · 27d

At a glance

Market favourite #9 SPILL THE SUGAR (2-1) — our number agrees.
#9 SPILL THE SUGAR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.3% to their 26.6%).
#2 STATUTORY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.4% to their 17.7%).
#5 PULLING THREADS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.4% to their 14.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Loves To Fish; pressure from #10 Triple Moon, #5 Pulling Threads; the shape helps #7 Grant's Gretchen, #9 Spill The Sugar; and works against #2 Statutory, #4 Loves To Fish, #5 Pulling Threads.

Lead

4Loves To Fish8910Triple Moon895Pulling Threads80

Press

3Preach Tewmey Now846Riyah Al Nil791Super Pachi77

Stalk

11Enticing Moves90

9Spill The Sugar827Grant's Gretchen74

No style yet

2Statutory878Funny Twist84

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Enticing Moves

Loves To Fish

Triple Moon

Preach Tewmey Now

Pulling Threads

Riyah Al Nil

Super Pachi

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Spill The Sugar

Grant's Gretchen

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6)

$.20 DERBY CITY-6 / SUPER HI-5 / ODD VS EVEN

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.