CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 8
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $80,000
Claiming $80,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 60.96
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Sprint Out Pass (a closer, M/L 30-1). Recent figures: 85 · 87 · 88. Backup is #1 Initialize at 7-2. Use #11 Twilight Delight in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
A step up in company: allowance before, allowance optional claiming today. Switches from dirt to turf.
Has won 4 of 7 going today's distance. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
Has moved up each time out, 80 to 86 to 87. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.
Won last out in a 6-horse allowance race at CD. An 87 top number against a 90 par, so it fits the level.
3rd last time, a head back, in a field of 11. Best recent figure of 88 sits right around the 90 par.
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Stretches out from -7 furlongs to 5½ furlongs.
Drops from optional claiming to allowance optional claiming. Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going 7 furlongs.
Beaten 2½ lengths for 5th in an 11-horse optional claiming race at KD. Back to 5½ furlongs off a 6½ furlongs race.
Sat 6th of 11 early last time. An 89 top number against a 90 par, so it fits the level.
Worked 3F in :37.20 on Aug 30, 2nd of 15 at the distance. Figures are climbing: 77, 81, 83 over its last three.
384 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Eddie Kenneally takes over the training from Riley Mott.
Carries 110 pounds, 13 less than last time. Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Aug 10, in :36.80.
Freshened 252 days. Watch how its recent works look. New trainer: Michael J Maker had it last time, Riley Mott now.
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now.
Figures have slipped: 88, 85, 77 over its last three. Best recent figure of 88 sits right around the 90 par.
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 INITIALIZE (7-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #1 INITIALIZE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 15.0%).
- #5 ORTLEY AVENUE — our #5 number, about right at the windows (11.9% to their 12.2%).
- #11 TWILIGHT DELIGHT — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 9.8%, the board 9.6%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 SPRINT OUT PASS (30-1) — our fair 3.1% is above the morning line's 2.2%; supported by: top barn (32%) + jockey (34%) at 30-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #5 Ortley Avenue; pressure from #1 Initialize, #15 Cheval De Guerre; the shape helps #4 Corona De Oro, #6 Smokey Smokey, #8 Our Starry Night; and works against #1 Initialize, #5 Ortley Avenue.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / SUPER HI-5 / ODD VS EVEN
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta